
This is a little late because Mitch Richmond, a pretty decent source on the topic, already broke the news (via Twitter) that he did not get elected to the Hall of Fame. For most of the other candidates in the 2013 Hall of Fame class set to be unveiled Monday, uncertainty remains.
Gary Payton is in – according to someone close to the situation, in this case not named Richmond – and Richmond is out. In full disclosure, I would have had Payton as a lock (the only one) and given Richmond a good chance. That leaves eight from the North American committee to be revealed, seven with NBA ties plus college coach Guy Lewis.
Estimating the chances of the seven is a fool’s errand with Hall of Fame voting notoriously unpredictable, as proven by the fact that I would not have given Tom Heinsohn a shot to make the second and final stage of balloting as a coach. But based on decisions from recent years that (hopefully) give some indication of trends for this time, feedback from people around the game and the usual factor of the average 30-year fixed mortgage divided by the square root of the combined jersey numbers of the previous NBA champion multiplied by the wind velocity at City Hall in Springfield, Mass., at noon today, I am just that fool.
Maurice Cheeks
Hall of Fame Chances: Decent
Summary: Four-time All-Star, five-time All-Defense (four on the first-team), key member of the 1983 title team in Philadelphia, No. 5 all-time in steals.
Tim Hardaway
Hall of Fame Chances: Decent
Summary: Five-time All-Star, first-team All-NBA once, No. 13 in career assists, won an Olympic gold medal in 2000.
Spencer Haywood
Hall of Fame Chances: Good
Summary: Four-time NBA All-Star, averaged at least 20 points a game six times in the NBA, first-team All-NBA twice, member of 1980 championship team with the Lakers, ABA Rookie of the Year, ABA MVP, star of the 1968 Olympic team that won a gold medal (as he refused to join other African-American standouts in a boycott).
Tommy Heinsohn
Hall of Fame Chances: Poor
Summary: Nominated as a coach after being elected as a player in 1986. As a coach, won two championships with the Celtics, Coach of the Year, but only 427 career wins.
Bernard King
Hall of Fame Chances: Good
Summary: Averaged 22.5 ppg in his career, one of the premier offensive threats from the late-1970s through the early-1990s despite major knee injuries, four-time All-Star, two-time first-team All-NBA, Comeback Player of the Year.
Gary Payton
Original Hall of Fame chances: Lock
Updated Hall of Fame chances: Lock
Summary: Nine-time All-Star, nine-time All-Defense, two-time first-team All-NBA, Defensive Player of the Year, championship with the Heat in 2006, Olympic gold medalist in 1996 and 2000, retired as No. 4 in career steals and No. 8 in assists.
Rick Pitino
Chances: Good
Summary: The only coach to take three schools to the Final Four, won the 1996 national championship with Kentucky and has a strong chance this season with Louisville (with the title game hours after the Hall of Fame announcement), has been to the Final Four seven times, coached the Knicks and Celtics.
Mitch Richmond
Original Hall of Fame chances: Good
Updated Hall of Fame chances: Not-so-good.
Summary: Six-time All-Star, Rookie of the Year, three-time second-team All-NBA, averaged 21 points a game for 10 consecutive seasons, member of the 2002 championship team with the Lakers, won a gold medal in the 1996 Olympics and a bronze in 1988.
Jerry Tarkanian
Hall of Fame Chances: Decent
Summary: Won 990 games in his college career, guided UNLV to the 1990 national championship, four trips to the Final Four, owns the highest junior-college winning percentage (.891), coached the Spurs. Back on the ballot after being removed for lack of support, there is a renewed push for induction with Tarkanian in failing health.
Winners who receive at least 18 of 24 votes in anonymous voting will be announced Monday in Atlanta as part of Final Four festivities. Inductees from the Women’s committee, with North Carolina coach Sylvia Hatchell and former star guard Dawn Staley as finalists, will be revealed at the same time. Roger Brown (ABA committee), Edwin B. Henderson (Early African American Pioneers), Oscar Schmidt (International), Richard Guerin (Veterans) and Russ Granik (Contributor) have already been elected.
The enshrinement ceremony is Sept. 8 in Springfield.