One Team, One Stat: Nothing Behind CP3


VIDEO: Schuhmann’s Advanced Stats: Los Angeles Clippers

NBA.com’s John Schuhmann gets you ready for the 2015-16 season with a key stat for each team in the league and shows you why it matters. Today, we look at the Los Angeles Clippers, who suffered a huge drop-off when their best player sat down.

The stat

20151025_lac_on-off_diff

The context

20151025_lac_basicsThe difference between the Clippers with Chris Paul on the floor and him on the bench was mostly on offense. L.A. led the league in offensive efficiency by scoring 109.8 points per 100 possessions for the season and scored 115.1 when Paul was running the show.

But when Paul sat, the Clips scored just 95.6 points per 100 possessions, a number that was better than only that of the Philadelphia 76ers last season. And the Sixers had the worst offense of the last 12 years.

The difference was in all of the “four factors” of efficiency. The Clippers shot worse, rebounded worse, turned the ball often more often, and got to the line less often when Paul was off the floor.

20151025_lac_offense_diff

DeAndre Jordan, fourth on the list above, did most of the work on the glass. Jordan and Blake Griffin got to the line a combined 898 times.

All five of the Clippers starters were in the top 12 of on-off NetRtg differential. J.J. Redick (12.8) was eighth, Matt Barnes (12.3) was 10th, and Griffin (11.7) was 12th.

Jordan was on the floor for about 90 percent of Paul’s minutes last season. Barnes, Griffin and Redick were each on the floor for about 75 percent of Paul’s minutes. The point guard’s on-off differential was a group effort, both among the starters and among the Clippers’ awful bench.

As a result, Doc Rivers played his starters together for 1,217 minutes, 302 more than any other lineup in the league. It can certainly be argued that all those minutes played a role in the Clippers’ collapse in the conference semifinals.

The Clippers have survived without Paul in the past. In 2013-14, with the offense running through Griffin, L.A. went 12-6 and scored more than 112 points per 100 possessions during Paul’s 18-game absence in the middle of the season.

But there’s no question about who runs the show when the Clips are healthy. They were outscored by 18.4 points per 100 possessions with Jordan on the floor and Paul off it and by 5.4 points per 100 possessions with Griffin on the floor and Paul off it.

Paul has long been a great playmaker with a low turnover rate. But over the last few years, he’s also turned into one of the league’s best shooters off the dribble. Among players who attempted at least 200 pull-up jumpers, he ranked second (behind Beno Udrih) in field goal percentage and third in effective field goal percentage.

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The Clippers acquired Austin Rivers in January to try to help their bench. But Paul’s on-off numbers were even more extreme late in the season. After the All-Star break, the Clippers outscored their opponents by 16.4 points per 100 possessions with Paul on the floor and were outscored by 14.3 (scoring a paltry 89.2) with him on the bench.

The hope in Clipperland is that Paul Pierce, Josh Smith and Lance Stephenson can keep the Clippers’ offense from falling off a cliff when their starters sit down. But for that to happen, Stephenson in particular would have to play a lot differently than he did last season.

The Clippers still have the best floor general in the league, and they still have questions on their bench. It seems like this is a make-or-break year for the team’s core, and success may depend on whether or not Paul is again near the top of this list.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

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