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Spurs Are Home, But Are Heat Rolling?

June 11, 2013  ·  10:44AM

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SAN ANTONIO – The Finals are back in San Antonio for the first time in six years, and Game 3 could be the most important 48 minutes of the season. The Spurs took home-court advantage away in Game 1, but the Heat looked much more dominant in Game 2.

Home team record, Finals since 1985
Game W L PCT
Game 1 22 7 0.759
Game 2 18 11 0.621
Game 3 14 14 0.500
Game 4 15 13 0.536
Game 5 13 11 0.542
Game 6 11 6 0.647
Game 7 4 0 1.000
Total 97 62 0.610

The basics:
Game 3 tips off Tuesday night at 9 p.m. ET on ABC.

This is the 14th (and fourth straight) time that The Finals have been tied 1-1 since going to the 2-3-2 format in 1985. The winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the title in 12 of the previous 13 instances, with the 2011 Heat being the lone exception. Miami won Game 3 in Dallas, but then lost the next three games. Last year, they won Game 3 at home and finished off the Thunder in five.

Game 3 is the only game in which the home team does not have a winning record in the 28 Finals since ’85 (see table). And with the series tied 1-1, nine of the 13 Game 3 winners (including the ’11 Heat) have been the team playing on the road.

The Heat are 5-2 on the road in the playoffs (having lost their last two in Indiana), while the Spurs are 6-1 at home.

The narrative:
The Spurs got the split they wanted when they went to Miami for Games 1 and 2, but the Heat clearly found their groove in the second half on Sunday. This may be another example of where the champs just needed a game to figure things out, or we could be in store for a long and memorable championship series.

If Miami can continue to play defense like they did over an eight-minute stretch spanning the third and fourth quarters on Game 2 (and in Game 7 against the Pacers), they will get enough offense to win the series. But the Spurs are home for the next three games and the Heat haven’t really put two championship-caliber games together all postseason.

The subplots:
You don’t have to look much further than the Spurs’ turnover numbers to find the biggest difference between Games 1 and 2. After committing the fewest turnovers (4) any team had committed against the Heat in over 20 years in Game 1, San Antonio had 17 in Game 2.

Those turnovers didn’t necessarily kill the Spurs on the other end of the floor; The Heat scored just nine points off San Antonio’s nine live-ball turnovers. But they damaged their chances of maintaining the offensive rhythm they had in Game 1. If they’re going to win the series, they’ll need to take care of the ball, while also moving it quickly to their open shooters.

If the Spurs continue to swarm LeBron James and the Heat do the same to Tony Parker, every game could come down to which star has a teammate to step up and make plays. In Game 1, it was Tim Duncan (20 points and four assists). In Game 2, it was Mario Chalmers (19 points and two assists).

Xs and Os:
Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green have done well defending James, so well that the Spurs probably don’t need to bring as much help on the MVP as they brought in Games 1 and 2. If the other Spurs can stay at home on the shooters, they can keep Miami’s 3-point game in check. Mario Chalmers (2), Ray Allen (3) and Mike Miller (3) each had multiple threes in Game 2 and are a combined 14-for-24 from beyond the arc in the series. The Heat are 32-1 when they hit 10 or more threes as a team.

The Spurs can’t get caught overplaying pick-and-rolls like they were on multiple occasions in the corner in Game 2. And they must be ready for another wrinkle or two in the Heat’s pick-and-roll game.

Offensively, the Spurs must counter Miami’s aggressive defense on their own pick-and-rolls. The San Antonio bigs have to create a passing lane for Parker to quickly get them the ball. If he can do that, there will be an open shot, an open teammate, or an open lane to the basket.

For more variety in their offense, the Heat can look to get James in the post, where he had only a handful of touches in the first two games.

Who’s hot?
The aforementioned Allen (6-for-9) and Miller (4-for-5) have found their rhythm from beyond the arc, making the Heat so much more dangerous offensively. Chalmers is 4-for-6 on corner threes, but 0-for-4 from above the break. And though he was the goat for his 3-point misses in Game 1, Chris Bosh is 8-for-14 from mid-range in the series.

On the other end of the floor, Green is 9-for-14 from 3-point range, taking advantage of the attention Miami has been paying to Parker. If the Spurs can get Leonard (1-for-7) also shooting well, they’ll be in good shape.

Whatever happened to…
Manu Ginobili? The Spurs’ third star is 7-for-23 over his last three games and had a hard time just holding onto the ball on Sunday. He was looking to attack Allen off the dribble (a valid game plan), but was moving too fast for his own good. San Antonio needs him back in control for Game 3.

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Posted in 2013 NBA Finals: Spurs-Heat / Comments (19) /

No Overreaction Needed, But San Antonio Faces Hurdles After Game 2 Rout

June 10, 2013  ·  12:53AM

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MIAMI – Overreaction is an unintended consequence of the postseason, so the tendency after Miami’s 103-84 rout of San Antonio in Game 2 of the 2013 NBA Finals will be to think all sorts of bold thoughts about the Heat and an equal number of worrisome things about the Spurs.

If Game 1 provided a license to overreact to San Antonio’s (cough) poise and patience, for example, this one ought to be good for a little in the other direction. Better yet, overreacting by definition requires something sweeping and grand, suitable for a Finals.

Here goes:

  • San Antonio cannot expect to win again if it can’t capitalize on a 3-for-13 shooting night by LeBron James through the first three quarters. By that point, Miami led by 10 anyway and it got no better for the visitors.
  • The Spurs must make at least half of their 3-pointers the rest of these Finals, as they did Sunday at AmericanAirlines Arena, if they’re going to shoot 37.9 percent from inside the arc against Miami’s defense.
  • As for tinkering with their Game 1 formula, San Antonio should have stayed away from the additive labeled “Quadruple your turnover total.” In the opener, they handled the ball as if it were their first-born, committing only four turnovers worth eight points to the Heat. This time, they threw the ball away — sometimes unforced, and wildly — 17 times, contributing 19 points to Miami’s cause. And discombobulating (16 assists) their own attack.
  • Someone needs to break the news to Tony Parker that, while he might be the best point guard in the NBA this postseason, Miami’s Mario Chalmers can lay claim to being the big-game guy of the moment in this series. Chalmers scored nine points during his team’s 23-3 run across six minutes in the second half — from 3:11 of the third quarter to 9:11 of the fourth — that took the Heat from a 62-61 deficit to an 84-65 bench-clearing.
  • The Spurs will not prevail if their Big 3 — Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili — shoots 10-for-33 again and gets outscored by a dozen points by the Heat’s Big 3. Then again, Miami cannot possibly succeed if its three big guys — James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh — manage only 39 points.

Taken to extremes, overreaction will lead to a point where nobody can win. And obviously someone will. At this point in the playoffs, the answers come from adjustments, counters and responses, not from sweeping pronouncements. A 19-point loss still counts one. (more…)

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Posted in 2013 NBA Finals: Spurs-Heat / Comments (70) /

Confident Chalmers Leads Heat Rout

June 9, 2013  ·  11:56PM




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MIAMI – Mario Chalmers has no problem asserting himself on the big stage.

It’s been in his blood since he was a teenager, but it became evident when he was starring in college for Kansas’ national championship team and more so last season, during the Miami Heat’s championship run.

Chalmers went off for 25 points in Game 4 of The Finals last season against the Oklahoma City Thunder, draining nine of his 14 shots en route to a win that helped the Heat move one step closer to closing out the Thunder in Game 5.

That’s why performances like the one he delivered Sunday night at AmericanAirlines should surprise no one. The Heat point guard relishes the opportunity to take and make the big shots, make the big plays and accept the challenge of dealing with a future Hall of Famer like Tony Parker the way he did in the Heat’s 103-84 rout of the San Antonio Spurs in Game 2 of The Finals.

Chalmers led the Heat with a team-high 19 points and helped limit Parker to 13 points and just five assists. His layup and free throw with 3:11 to play in the third quarter was the turning point as the Heat went on a 33-5 run to blow the game open. They went from trailing by a point to coasting by 27 points to tie the series at a 1-1 headed to San Antonio for Games 3, 4 and 5.

Chalmers walked over and told a struggling LeBron James that now was the time.

“I felt like we had them on the ropes at the time,” Chalmers said. “I told them let’s go for the kill.”

James might have had the highlight play on Tiago Splitter and Chris Bosh broke out of his funk and finished with a double double (12 points, 10 rebounds). But it was the Heat’s role players who saved the day. Guys like Ray Allen (13 points), Chris “Birdman” Andersen (nine points) and Mike Miller (nine points) showed up.

And in this series, James is convinced that Chalmers could very well be the Heat’s most critical performer, even with “Big 3s” on both sides.

“‘Rio has to play big for us in all facets,” James said. “I think that especially defensively, he’s guarding arguably the best point guard in the league. But I think he also has to make Tony work on the defensive end. He can’t be passive. He has to shoot his shots when he has them.”

Chalmers won’t bite publicly when asked about an individual matchup like the one he’s locked in with Parker right now, but his history against the other top players at the position suggests otherwise. He’s never backed down.

“It wasn’t nothing about Tony Parker,” Chalmers said. “It was the fact that we lost Game 1.We never want to lose, especially in The Finals. My mindset was just to do what I can for the team and go from there.”

It goes back that intestinal fortitude, the big game moxie that Chalmers has always exhibited.

“Mario’s got guts. Come on,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “He had that all the way [back] in college. He’s got incredible confidence in his game. He’s shown that throughout the years, even when it’s sometimes — I wouldn’t say irrational. You have to have guts to play with our guys. If you don’t, you get swallowed up. The good thing about it is the other guys were fine with him making plays. That might be different the next game. As they make adjustments, everybody has to be alive. Him being aggressive helps us, no question.”

There’s no strategy involved. Just plain old guts.

You either have it in you to thrive under pressure or you don’t.

“We have a lot of those guys,” Spoelstra said. “You can’t teach that quality, the big game guts. They feel most alive in these situations when you typically feel the most pressure. Drives me crazy sometimes in December and January. But when you get to this time of year you like it.”

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Posted in 2013 The Finals / Comments (31) /

Game 2: The Impact Plays

June 9, 2013  ·  11:48PM

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MIAMI — The most important play in a game isn’t always the one you remember most. Sometimes, it’s subtle and doesn’t even make the highlight reel. Sometimes, something as simple as a change in possession can be more important than a shot that does or doesn’t go in.

The NBA has a way to use analytics to figure out just which plays had the biggest impact on a close game. It’s a “leverage” model that was developed to evaluate and instruct referees by pointing out which calls or no-calls had the biggest impact on a game’s result.

Here’s the idea: At every point of a game, each team has a certain probability of winning. Putting the quality of each team to the side, when the game tips off, the home team has a 60 percent probability of winning and the road team has a 40 percent probability of winning. After the first basket, those numbers haven’t changed much. But if the home team is up 10 with the ball and five minutes to go in the fourth quarter, their win probability (WP) is obviously a lot greater than 60 percent.

So, by calculating win probability both before and after a play occurs, it can be determined just how important that play was. Score, possession and location are the factors. And obviously, plays in the last few minutes of the fourth quarter (or overtime) in a close game are more important than any others.

Using the league’s data model, we’ve determined the three most important plays of Game 2 of The Finals, an easy 103-84 win for the Miami Heat.

Because Game 2 was a blowout, the plays that made the biggest impact came late in the third quarter, with the outcome still in the balance…

3. +7.4 percent – Ray Allen drains a 3


The Heat were up just two when Manu Ginobili committed one of the Spurs’ 17 turnovers. LeBron James brought the ball up quickly and got the ball to Mario Chalmers, who made the extra pass to Allen for a wide-open three from the left wing with 2:25 left in the third.

The basket changed the Heat’s WP from 66.2 percent to 73.6 percent.

2. +7.6 percent – A three-point possession


With James in the post and the score tied, Tim Duncan got caught for a defensive three-second violation. Chalmers made the technical free throw, and on the ensuing play, Chris Bosh hit a tough bank shot to put Miami up 61-58 with 4:30 left in the third.

Before the possession, the Heat’s WP was 58.1 percent. After Bosh’s bucket, it was 65.7 percent.

1. +8.1 percent – Chalmers’ and-one


A minute after that three-point possession, the Spurs were back up one and the Heat’s WP was back down to 53.8 percent. But they got a pair of offensive rebounds and were inbounding the ball under their basket with 3:17 left.

Chalmers then went around a James screen at the elbow, drew a foul on Danny Green, and converted a lay-up and the free throw. The three-point play was the start of the Heat’s 33-5 game-changing run and changed their WP from 53.8 percent to 62.0 percent.

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Posted in 2013 NBA Finals: Spurs-Heat / Comments (34) /

24-Second Thoughts On Game 2

June 9, 2013  ·  11:26PM




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24 – If you believe in good luck charms, then you have to believe that they can wear out, too. After just four home losses during the regular season, the Heat and 12-year-old national anthem singer Julia Dale have three playoffs losses and are just 2-2 in the previous four games. Time for a change?

23 – Does anyone else find it silly that the world of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh seems to end every time Miami loses a playoff game? After all, they’ve dropped Game 1 three times together over the past three seasons and then come back to win each of those series 4-1.

22 – Watching D-Wade firing up his team in the pre-game huddle, knowing the situation they’re in, don’t you just expect the Heat to win big here?

21 – Instant reply? Spurs commit turnover on their first possession, just like Game 1. If they only commit four more rest of the night, just like Game 1, Gregg Popovich will be a very happy — I know, that’s a relative term — man.

20 — For all the talk about how the Spurs stole the win in Game 1 with Tony Parker’s clutch shot at the end, too many people overlooked the Spurs’ poor shooting all night long. San Antonio was just 41.7 percent from the field and 30.4 on 3-pointers. If those start to drop … well, well, well, here comes Danny Greeeeen! 3-for-3 from downtown in first four minutes.

19 – This is obviously a pace and style that will make the Heat very happy. Spurs commit fifth turnover of the game with 3:23 left in the 1st quarter. They had five in all of Game 1 and the sloppy play is letting Miami be the aggressor.

18 – What’s left for the LeBron critics to pick at when he’s making the right rotations in the defense, getting that big block on Tim Duncan in the paint?

17 – Scoreboard says it’s tied at the end of the first quarter. But is there anybody who doesn’t feel like the Heat are up 22-22?

16 – Maybe he’s on his best behavior because it’s The Finals. Or maybe it’s just Doris Burke wearing basic black instead of one of Craig Sager’s psychedelic horse blankets. But the biggest under-performer of the first two games has been Popovich in his between quarters interviews. I want some nasty.

15 — Gary Neal takes the long range baton from Danny Green. He’s got eight points in his first seven minutes and the Spurs have hit 5-for-7 on 3s already. That’s one way to make up for all of those turnovers.

14 – Never mind winning the lottery. I’ve decided I could live comfortably plush for years if I just had a dollar for every casual viewer who’s ever walked by a TV and asked “Who is that guy?” the first time they’ve seen Chris “Birdman” Andersen.

13 — Give Chris Bosh credit for being active on the offensive boards. He’s already tipped the ball twice back outside to give the Heat a chance to reset for another possession and both times they’ve scored. He’s given up the long jumpers and playing closer to the basket in general.

12 – Just when everybody’s ready to push 31-year-old D-Wade around in a wheelchair covered in an afghan, here he is looking like his old self again with 10 points and four assists in a first half where LeBron (four points) has been hiding.

11 – In that open court, 1-on-1 showdown between LeBron and Danny Green, come on, admit it, how many picked Danny Boy as the winner? Green suckers James into miss the first time, but LeBron gets the benefit of bad call by ref Joe Crawford on the second time down the court.

10 — Danny Green has taken his talents to South Beach! These 3s are layups for him. Layups, I tell you.

9 – The Spurs have Kawhi Leonard backing off LeBron just a bit and have the other defenders closing down the driving lanes. If James is going to make something happen for himself in this one, it seems he would be wise to get himself down in the low post to show off those moves he learned from Hakeem Olajuwon.

8 – Paint this game Green. Danny Boy rejects LeBron under the basket at one end and then takes the ball to the hoop for his 17th point at the other end. How much longer before we’re calling him “The Chosen One?”

7 – For all the damage being done by the Spurs from behind the 3-point line, the two biggest buckets of the game so far might be those last two bombs from Ray Allen and Mike Miller. Mario Chalmers converts three-point play and 75-65 Heat edge after third quarter is the first double-digit lead by either side in The Finals. People rarely talk about Chalmers, but he has a way of stepping into the offensive gaps and drives strong to the hoop when the Heat need him.  Chalmers flies under the radar like one of those CIA drones.

6 — You can hold down LeBron’s scoring. You can open the door for every critic in every corner of the globe to rip him. But he still plays the game, sees the court and makes the right passes to his open teammates for good shots. See: Double-team from Tiago Splitter and Mike Miller 3.

5 – Now you know why Gregg Popovich looked like he was passing a kidney stone when Doris Burke asked him about those five turnovers in the first quarter. It’s up to 15 turnovers in the fourth and the Spurs are getting burned worse than English tourists on South Beach.

4 – Hello, Tiago! I’m pretty sure the last time anybody threw a tomahawk and did less damage was in the 1960s sitcom F Troop. LeBron at the rim with a facial that usually costs at least $150 at your local spa. Easily the best block of the entire playoffs. And that’s the fat lady you hear singing.

3 — Didn’t you always know that Tracy McGrady would lead a team to The Finals and play significant minutes? Well, it’s happened. That is, if you consider sitting at the end of the bench leading and sweeping up behind the elephants in garbage time significant. The only person who looks more lost and out of place is Manu Ginobili, who is forcing things way too much.

2 –  One word to define the Heat: resilient. They have not lost consecutive games since Jan. 8-10 at Phoenix and at Portland. Following their five losses in these playoffs, they’ve come back to win the next game by an average of 21.6 points. Hold off the end of the world, break-up-the-Big Three talk. Now we’ve got a series. Just the way we always knew we would.

1 – OK, maybe it’s just me.  But seeing Pop sit at the podium and explain to the assembled media that missing lots of shots and making lots of turnovers is a bad combination, I can’t help thinking of Dean Wormer in Animal House: “Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.”

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Posted in 2013 The Finals, HT News / Comments (50) /

All’s Fair In Finals, Including Few Fouls

June 8, 2013  ·  3:24PM

MIAMI – The way these Miami and San Antonio teams are constructed, it’s likely that the 2013 Finals will be decided by part or all of somebody’s Big 3.

Just as long as it isn’t the NBA’s Big 3 – the three guys with whistles policing the action.

Evaluated in players’ terms, the Game 1 crew of Monty McCutchen, Tony Brothers and Jason Phillips didn’t exactly fill up the box score Thursday night at AmericanAirlines Arena. They assessed only 24 personal fouls, the fewest in Finals history by a considerable margin. On June 7, 2007, the Spurs (15) and LeBron James‘ Cleveland Cavaliers (16) combined for just 31 fouls. Five nights later, they nearly matched that with 32.

Each team was called for just 12 fouls, breaking the mark of 13 shared by the Lakers (in a 1988 Finals game against Detroit) and the Spurs (against New York en route to the 1999 title).

It’s not entirely clear whether the Spurs and the Heat played clean, finesse basketball, the refs Thursday let some contact slide or some combination of the two. But fewer whistles makes for a relatively breezy game, whether participating or viewing. And from the sound of it, the players are fine without undue clock stoppages and trudges to the foul line.

“You just hope they’re consistent more than anything,” San Antonio’s Tim Duncan said before his team’s practice session Saturday. “Consistency is all we’re kind of worried about. If you go out there and get a ticky-tack foul, and [then] get beat up on one, those things are frustrating.

“The Finals are usually a lot more physical and you get away with a bit more than you do in the regular season. I think everybody understands that and is okay with that.”

Based on regular-season performance, this didn’t figure to be a whistle-heavy series. San Antonio, averaging 17.4 personals per game, committed fewer fouls than any other team in the league, while Miami ranked 23rd at 18.7 fpg. Only five Heat players and three Spurs fouled out of games during the season; in the playoffs, it’s three and none.

The teams shot 35 free throws, 18 by Miami, 17 by the Spurs. This season, the Heat ranked 10th (23.0) in average free throw attempts, while San Antonio was 21st with 21.0.

Miami’s Ray Allen, who prefers to score his points three at a time anyway, said most players prefer fewer whistles.

“I’d rather there be no calls made,” Allen said. “We all can adjust to that, as opposed to not knowing if you’re being over-aggressive. One thing offensively about this league is, guys are going to come at you [with the ball] and there’s a point where you have to hold your ground. Sometimes you’re trying to decide, ‘Do I open up or do I stand there? And if I stand there, am I going to be called [for] a foul?’ I’d definitely have it be a more physical game where the referees just let us play.”

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Allen Finds ‘Pure Joy’ In Latest Finals Trip

June 8, 2013  ·  11:40AM

 

MIAMI – Boston has the Stanley Cup Finals, Ray Allen has the NBA Finals. And if that’s something less than a fair bargain for the more basketball-specific among that city’s sports fans, well, it’s better than the alternative of TD Bank Garden dark and closed for the summer.

This has turned out to be a tough Finals for folks in Boston regardless, what with Tim Duncan – the prize who got away in the 1997 draft lottery – showing up for his fifth shot at a ring in the same time their beloved Celtics have participated twice and won once. But the Allen wound is more fresh and, in a sense, deeper.

When the veteran shooting guard and league’s all-time 3-point scorer signed with the Celtics’ latest hated rival, the Miami Heat, 11 months ago, the blow was delivered by a lottery ball randomly popping to the top of a hopper. It was Allen actively rejecting a bigger contract (two years, $12 million). It was Allen knowingly, consciously and some have characterized as bitterly swapping Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett for LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, Southies for South Beach, Ubuntu for Udonis.

After so much success for that group in green – the 2008 title, seven more Finals games in 2010, a .692 winning percentage in the regular season – Allen’s departure saw the Celtics barely break .500 in 2012-13 (41-40), qualify as a seventh seed and exit the playoffs in the first round against New York.

Allen, meanwhile, slipped smoothly into life and success with the Heat. He played in 79 games and, after a lifetime of starting, came off the bench in every one of them with no ill effect on the quality of his play. At age 37, he averaged 10.9 points, shot 44.9 percent overall and 41.9 percent from the arc. His points, rebounds and assists per minute were little-changed from his production in Boston and he led his new team in 3-pointers attempted and made.

He was a vital part of Miami’s attention-grabbing 27-game winning streak, the second-longest in league history, and status as this postseason’s No. 1 seed overall. Now he’s back in The Finals, one more trip than Pierce or Garnett, possibly one more ring if the Heat outlast the Spurs.

Right about now, if they haven’t already, Celtics faithful might want to click elsewhere. Some of what follows is sure to hurt:

“Just pure joy. This is my third time and this feeling never gets old,” Allen said of getting back to the NBA’s championship round.

“The first three rounds, you feel like, there’s that sense of the season being so long and so taxing, you feel everything in your body. But once you get to this level, it’s where the true fun starts. You see what you’re playing for. This is where, in between your days, you sit back and reminisce about how far you’ve come, this stage you’re playing on, how far you’ve been away from it, watching it as a young kid. Now being here, you’re in the moment. You get to enjoy it a little more.”

Allen hasn’t intentionally rubbed salt into the wound of his departure from Boston when he’s met with the media here so far. No visible rancor over his apparent icy relations with point guard Rajon Rondo or the offense he took at losing his starting spot to Avery Bradley.

Still, he has made it clear how satisfied he is with the results. Initially he backed away from the word “vindication,” before finally embracing it.

“I knew when I assessed the situation at the time, every player going into free agency wants to win. And as you get older, you try to see everything,” Allen said. “You try to look at the situation a little bit closer. You step out on the limb every summer and a guy says, ‘Am I going to go to this team or that team?’ For me, I guess there is a little bit of vindication because being here is what my whole hope was of doing last summer.”

Coming off the bench, as part of a fleet of 3-point threats with Shane Battier, Mike Miller, Mario Chalmers and even old Seattle teammate Rashard Lewis, Allen’s minutes dipped from 34.0 last season to 25.8. His shots in absolute terms were at a career low 8.2, but on a per-minute basis, he got up the most 3-pointers since his second season in Boston.

Allen’s touch dipped through the first three rounds (36.5 percent of his 3-pointers) but in Game 1 Thursday against San Antonio, he hit three of four. Over the last six games he is shooting 44.4 percent from out there. And he coolly made three late free throws after Danny Green fouled him at a then-critical time.

This whole, long season has been a period of adjustment technically for a player whose game is based on precision. The distance from the arc to the rim hasn’t changed but all sorts of angles and timing have.

“Just knowing where the scoring zones for me were going to be,” Allen said of adapting to the Heat attack fueled by James and Wade. “I was used to certain shots at certain times and I just had to re-think how those shots were coming. A lot in the corners. Just paying attention to the game a little bit more.”

Allen has a player option to return next season for $3 million and said he hasn’t decided what he will do. And he doesn’t spend much time thinking about what he’s already done. Or to whom he’s done it.

“Each time you enjoy ‘em,” he said of The Finals. “They mean the same. The goal is always the same. Once you want to win, it’s hard to say you want to win MORE. You have to live in the moment and make sure you have no regrets.”

Allen has no regrets. Boston fans have the Bruins.

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Film Study: Spurs Lock Down In The Fourth

June 7, 2013  ·  12:03PM

MIAMI – Game 1 of The Finals was one of the best played playoff games you will ever see. The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs committed just 13 combined turnovers and 24 combined personal fouls, a Finals record.

But the Spurs took a 1-0 series lead, in part because Tony Parker hit a ridiculous shot and in part because they held down the Heat’s offense in the fourth quarter.

The Heat scored just 16 points on 22 possessions in the final 12 minutes, the only time either team was held under a point per possession in any of the four periods. LeBron James was off the floor for the first 2:59 of the fourth, but Miami still scored just 12 points on 16 possessions after he checked back in.

Those 16 possessions were largely a result of the defensive improvement the Spurs have undergone this season. After an evaluation of what defensive numbers were really important, they improved from No. 11 in defensive efficiency last season to No. 3 this year. And they’ve held their opponents under a point per possession in 11 of their 14 playoff games leading into The Finals.

They forced the Heat into 5-for-18 shooting in the fourth quarter (which made for a very bloody shot chart), as well as five turnovers (four of which were live-balls). It was great defensive work by all five guys on the floor, but the Heat also hurt themselves with some sloppiness and poor decisions.

Here are five noteworthy stops from the final seven minutes…

Possession No. 10 – 6:52 left – Bosh misses a three

James attempted just four of his team’s 18 shots (plus two free throws) in the fourth quarter. And if you want to question his aggressiveness, this is the play to point out.

He comes off a Chris Bosh screen and encounters Tim Duncan outside the paint. The rest of the Spurs – other than Gary Neal, who smartly stays attached to Ray Allen in the corner – are in good help position, ready to help on James or a rolling Bosh.

20130606_james_passive

There are two questions for the Heat on this play. First, does James miss an opportunity to drive past Duncan and get to the rim here? He was 5-for-5 in the restricted area in Game 1, but just 2-for-11 outside it.

Second, shouldn’t Bosh be rolling the basket instead of popping out to the 3-point line? If he rolls, there’s only Parker there to stop him. (more…)

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Posted in 2013 NBA Finals: Spurs-Heat, Film Study / Comments (61) /

Game 1: The Impact Plays

June 7, 2013  ·  1:07AM

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MIAMI – The most important play in a game isn’t always the one you remember most. Sometimes, it’s subtle and doesn’t even make the highlight reel. Sometimes, something as simple as a change in possession can be more important than a shot that does or doesn’t go in.

The NBA has a way to use analytics to figure out just which plays had the biggest impact on a close game. It’s a “leverage” model that was developed to evaluate and instruct referees by pointing out which calls or no-calls had the biggest impact on a game’s result.

Here’s the idea: At every point of a game, each team has a certain probability of winning. Putting the quality of each team to the side, when the game tips off, the home team has a 60 percent probability of winning and the road team has a 40 percent probability of winning. After the first basket, those numbers haven’t changed much. But if the home team is up 10 with the ball and five minutes to go in the fourth quarter, their win probability (WP) is obviously a lot greater than 60 percent.

So, by calculating win probability both before and after a play occurs, it can be determined just how important that play was. Score, possession and location are the factors. And obviously, plays in the last few minutes of the fourth quarter (or overtime) in a close game are more important than any others.

Using the league’s data model, we’ve determined the three most important plays of Game 1 of The Finals.

No 3.: +8.7 percent – Kawhi Leonard steals LeBron James’ pass



With the Spurs up 79-78 and the Heat in possession with just over six minutes to go, the Spurs’ win probability is 49.6 percent. But just gaining possession on Leonard’s steal changes it to 58.3 percent. And after Tony Parker puts Norris Cole in the blender and converts the layup, it’s at 65.4 percent. So the whole sequence is an increase of 15.8 percent.

No. 2.: +12.7 percent – Ray Allen gets fouled and hits three free throws



With the Heat down 88-83 with a minute and a half to go, their win probability is 11.2 percent. But Danny Green‘s foul and Allen’s three freebies give them some life and a 23.9 percent WP.

No. 1.: +19.6 percent – Parker’s leaning bank shot



The Spurs are up two with the ball and just 31 seconds left, but the Heat will have a chance to tie or take the lead if they can get a stop and a rebound. San Antonio’s WP is at 78.6 percent, but Parker’s miracle shot is a figurative dagger, increasing their WP to 98.2 percent.

Parker: “It was a crazy play. I thought I lost the ball three or four times. And it didn’t work out like I wanted it to. At the end, I was just trying to get a shot up. It felt good when it left my hand. I was happy it went in.”

LeBron James: “Tony did everything wrong and did everything right in the same possession… That was the longest 24 seconds that I’ve been a part of.”

Tim Duncan: “Obviously, Tony makes an unbelievable play. He does just about everything in the book that he had. He fell to the ground, pump-faked, stepped through, and still got it off the ground. It was just amazing.”

Gregg Popovich: “We were very fortunate.”

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Posted in 2013 NBA Finals: Spurs-Heat / Comments (46) /

24 Second Thoughts On Game 1

June 7, 2013  ·  12:12AM

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24 – Few times are filled with more excitement and dripping with anticipation than moments before Game 1 of The Finals. First, we get the lovely 12-year-old Julia Dale belting out the national anthem for the 23rd straight postseason game. Then, the White Stripes’ anthem Seven Nation Army. Rip it off!

23 — Rust? What rust? Tony Parker comes out of the box wielding the pick and roll like Zorro’s sword and carves up the Heat early for a 9-2 lead.

22 — ABC analyst Jeff Van Gundy sums up those Chris Bosh 3-point shots quite accurately. If he wants to take them for the next week or so, the Spurs will be quite happy.

21 – What does more than a decade and a half of throwing your body all over basketball courts around the globe do to you? If you’re 35-year-old Manu Ginobili, it means you can’t quite elevate to finish off that nice crossover drive with a dunk.

20 – Tim Duncan (0-for-5) was having problems finding his offensive rhythm, but getting his second foul on LeBron James’ drive with 1:43 left in the first quarter sends him to the bench and presents problems for the Spurs defense.

19 – The Heat are getting the ball inside for the shots they want and hit three treys in the first quarter, while the Spurs are missing easy, open looks.

18 – First big disappointment of The Finals. Episode No. 1 of “The Pop Show” is a flop as Gregg Popovich fails to bite the head off sideline reporter Doris Burke and actually answers her questions civilly.

17 – Ray Allen and Mike Miller might ask the Spurs’ perimeter defenders to pass the sunscreen and serve some cold drinks. This soft — or nonexistent — pressure at the 3-point line is making it look like a relaxing day at the beach for Miami shooters.

16 – By the way, I’m totally with Van Gundy. One of the first acts for new commissioner Adam Silver when he takes over next February should be changing The Finals format back to 2-2-1-1-1. The 2-3-2 setup is the NBA’s equivalent of penalty kicks in soccer and the DH in baseball — an idea that never was good.

15 – Get a good look at Gary Neal right now. If he doesn’t start knocking down those open jumpers, Pop will stuff him away in the luggage until the Spurs get back to Texas … or maybe even until next October.

14 – Give Erik Spoelstra credit for pushing all the right buttons in the first half. He’s already gone 11 deep and his bench has outscored the Spurs’ bench 19-10.

13 – When’s the last time Dwyane Wade looked as comfortable, as active, as good this spring? Never. His 13 points are his highest-scoring first half of the playoffs. But the Spurs can’t be totally unhappy, all things considered. They’re missing open shots, not getting back in transition, yet trail by just 52-49 at the half.

12 — What’s got the Heat feeling happiest at the half? They don’t have to spend the break icing down those bruises that were so often delivered by Roy Hibbert and the Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals.

11 – Gotta like that Bosh has had the sense to move in from the 3-point line and work instead from 18-foot range for jumpers and drives. That mid-range shot that drives all of the stat geeks into screaming fits has a much undervalued place in today’s game.

10 – Floppers go home. Give the referees credit in this one. They stood by and watched Ginobili flop to the ground as Wade rose up and stuck the turnaround and they didn’t call anything. “Get up and play!” is the correct message.

9 – The kid is all right. The 21-year-old Kawhi Leonard is playing his first Finals game with the impossible task of guarding LeBron and he’s acquitted himself well, holding his own in the post.

8 – If the Heat are going to be able to outrebound the Spurs in every game, they’ll be getting fitted for another set of rings.

7 – 72-69 Heat after three quarters doesn’t quite feel right. Seems like Miami is in complete control and seems like the Spurs can’t get their act together at either end and yet it’s still a toss-up into the final period.

6 – Uh-oh. Look who takes their first lead since the first quarter. Parker’s free throws put Spurs in front 77-76 and this game is looking more and more like the wallet hanging out of a drunk man’s pocket, ready to be stolen.

5 – The facts, and your own eyes, will tell you what you already should know — Parker is the best point guard in the NBA right now and has been right there with LeBron as the top two performers in the 2013 playoffs.

4 – Big switch down the stretch as Spoelstra shifts LeBron over to guarding Parker. It’s what we all expected in the clutch.

3 – It’s a game of less than inches. It takes only about a zillion replays to finally show that Parker got off his desperate clutch shot a millisecond ahead of the shot clock.

2 — Go figure. LeBron rings up another triple-double, but it is outdone by Danny Green with a quad-triple. That’s four 3-pointers by the kid who finished last year’s Western Conference finals to OKC riding the bench.

1 – Parker’s 10-point fourth quarter and that amazing shot that just beat the buzzer were pretty. But the Spurs won this one with defense. Miami shot just 5-for-18 in the fourth quarter with five turnovers. LeBron and Wade combined for six points on 2-for-6 shooting and the Spurs win 92-88.

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Posted in 2013 NBA Finals: Spurs-Heat, 2013 NBA Playoffs, HT News / Comments (40) /

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