HANG TIME NEW JERSEY — The good news is that Byron Scott is keeping his team focused on defense. In his Real Training Camp interview with Reggie Miller and Rick Fox, Scott said that he’s dedicated 75 percent of practices to that end of the floor. The Lakers don’t have the personnel to be a very good defensive team, but good coaching and solid principles can at least help them avoid being awful, something that Scott wasn’t able to do with the Cavs.
The bad news is that Scott doesn’t seem to understand the value of the 3-point shot.
After his team attempted just 10 of its 87 shots from 3-point range in Monday’s 98-95 preseason win over the Nuggets, Scott said that he was happy with that number, as Eric Pincus of the Los Angeles Times writes…
Though D’Antoni liked his team’s high volume of three-point attempts (24.8 a game at a 38.1% clip), Scott was happy the Lakers had only 10 attempts (making five) on Monday in their preseason opener against the Denver Nuggets.
“Our game plan is really to get to that basket,” said Scott after practice Tuesday. “I like the fact that we only shot 10 threes. If we shoot between 10 and 15, I think that’s a good mixture of getting to that basket and shooting threes.
“I don’t want us to be coming down, forcing up a bunch of threes. I really want us to attack the basket.”
First of all, it’s doubtful that the Lakers will average less than 15 3s per game. In each of the last two seasons, only one team — the Memphis Grizzlies — has attempted fewer than 15 3-pointers a night.
Beyond that, it’s as if Scott hasn’t been paying attention to what’s been happening across the league. If we go back last five seasons, 23 teams have attempted 15 or fewer 3-pointers per game. And only three of the 23 had an above average offense…
15 or fewer 3-point attempts per game, last five seasons
|Team||Season||3PA/G||OffRtg||Rank||vs. Lg. Avg.|
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
Nine of the above teams ranked in the bottom six in offensive efficiency. That’s three times as many as were above the league average.
Scott’s idea of attacking the basket isn’t bad. The most valuable shot on the floor is in the restricted area, where the league shot 60.8 percent and scored 1.22 points per attempt last season. Attacking the basket can lead to free throw attempts, which are even better. A trip to the line for two free throws is worth about 1.5 points.
But if you can’t get all the way to the basket and can’t get to the line, 2-point shots are bad. And overall, 3-point shots (1.08 points per attempt) were worth more than 2-point shots (0.98) last season.
For D’Antoni’s Lakers, the discrepancy was even bigger. L.A. was the third best 3-point shooting team in the league last season, hitting 38.1 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc, a value of 1.14 points per attempt. From inside the arc, they shot 47.8 percent, a value of just 0.96 points per attempt.
Now, the departure of Jodie Meeks, who led the team in both 3-point attempts and 3-point percentage, will hurt their numbers from the outside. And the return of Kobe Bryant will help their mid-range percentage. But even a great mid-range shooter (50 percent, 1.00 points per attempt) isn’t as good as an average 3-point shooter (36 percent, 1.08 points per attempt).
Over the years, teams have learned that you can get better offensively just by shooting more 3s, even if you’re not a very good 3-point shooting team. Of those 23 teams listed above, only two of them — the 2009-10 Pistons and 2010-11 Raptors — got more value out of their 2-point shots than their 3-point shots.
Not only is the value of a 3-pointer more than a value of a two, but there’s additional value in the floor spacing that a 3-point threat creates, because it leads to fewer defenders around players who are posting up or driving.
No guard posts up more than Bryant. And Scott can make things easier on his star by not discouraging his teammates to shoot from deep.