Posts Tagged ‘John Schuhmann’

Schedule says Thunder have edge on Pelicans for playoff spot


VIDEO: Pelicans GM Dell Demps assesses his teams hopes for a playoff berth

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – With just 30 days to go in the 2014-15 season, the battles for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference and the last two spots in the East have never been tighter.

After losing in Dallas on Monday, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a half game lead on the New Orleans Pelicans for eighth in the West. The Pelicans have the tiebreaker with a 3-1 head-to-head record, but the Thunder have an easier remaining schedule, with more home games, fewer back-to-backs, and fewer games against teams with winning records.

Here’s an updated look at remaining schedules for the entire Western Conference …

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Here’s an explanation of the “Adj.,” column, which starts with the opponent NetRtg for each game and makes the following adjustments:

  • plus-2.6* for a road game.
  • minus-2.6 for a home game.
  • plus-2.6** when the team is playing the second night of a back-to-back and the opponent isn’t.
  • minus-2.6 when the opponent is playing the second night of a back-to-back and the team isn’t.

* Home teams have outscored road teams by 2.6 points per 100 possessions this season.
** When one team played the night before and the other didn’t, the rested team has been a plus-2.6 this season.

A couple of notes on the West:

  • Mathematically, the Phoenix Suns still have a shot at a playoff spot. But the toughest remaining schedule in the league is enough to dismiss them. They’re 1-5 against teams currently over .500 since the All-Star break and play 12 of their final 14 games against that group.
  • The L.A. Clippers just finished a stretch where they played 17 of 21 games against teams that are currently over .500. They’re rewarded with the easiest remaining schedule of the 10 teams that have a shot in the playoffs. They’re currently in seventh place, but are just a half game out of fifth and are 24-4 against teams that are currently under .500.
  • The Grizzlies still have some work to do to hold on to the No. 2 seed. They have just a one-game lead in the loss column over the Portland Trail Blazers, who have an easier remaining schedule.

Here’s the remaining schedules in the East …

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  • The Boston Celtics, Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat are all tied with 36 losses, and they all have relatively tough schedules remaining.
  • None of the four have more home games than road games remaining.
  • The Hornets play more losing teams than winning teams, but also have the most back-to-backs remaining in the league, starting with Tuesday’s visit to the Clippers after Monday’s drubbing in Utah.
  • The Pacers and Celtics have the most momentum of the group, but also have the toughest remaining schedules. Both Boston (3-2) and Indiana (4-2) do have winning records since the All-Star break against teams with winning records, though.
  • The most home games remaining should be an opportunity for Brooklyn to get back in that 7-10 mix, but the Nets are a league-worst 3-11 at home in 2015.
  • Don’t hand the Cleveland Cavaliers the No. 2 seed just yet. The Toronto Raptors are only a game behind in the loss column, play 12 of their final 15 games against teams under .500, and are 25-7 against that group so far.
  • An easier remaining schedule should give the Chicago Bulls an edge over the Washington Wizards in the race for the No. 4 seed (and home-court advantage in a first-round matchup). They’re currently tied in the loss column, with Chicago holding the tiebreaker edge (better conference record, with a 2-2 tie in head-to-head meetings).

The kings of late-clock situations


VIDEO: Kyrie Irving’s Big Night

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – As Kyrie Irving went off for a career-high 57 points on Thursday, he got some help from LeBron James in the Cavs’ 128-125 overtime win in San Antonio.

James’ 31 points included three 3-pointers (on three attempts) in the fourth quarter and overtime. The second one gave them the Cavs lead for good in the middle of OT, and the third was the dagger with 32 seconds left.

All three of those threes came in the last six seconds of the shot clock, when James is used to shooting. For the second straight season, James leads the league in shots taken in the last six seconds of the clock, according to SportVU.

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Most of the guys on the list above haven’t shot particularly well in the last six seconds of the clock. As was noted in last week’s story on the Warriors’ pace, shooting and efficiency go down with the expiration of the shot clock.

But there are some guys who have shot well late in the clock. Stephen Curry has an effective field goal percentage of 65.7 percent on shots in the last six seconds of the clock, highest among 173 players who have attempted at least 50 late-clock shots. He’s actually shot better in the last six seconds of the clock than he’s shot in the first 18. Of 188 players who have attempted at least 300 *initial-possession shots, only 24 have shot better in late-clock situations.

* Initial possession = Not after an offensive rebound.

But Curry gets almost all of his work done early in the clock. Of those 188 players, Curry has taken the lowest percentage of his initial-possession shots in the last six seconds of the clock. The anti-Curry is Norris Cole, who has attempted 25.3 percent of his initial-possession shots in the last six seconds, playing for two teams that rank in the bottom five in pace.

Irving, meanwhile, is one of six guys with an effective field goal percentage of 50 percent or better on at least 100 late-clock shots.

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You could say that he’s the King of Late Clock.

One Stat, One Play: Spurs will make you put the ball on the floor


VIDEO: One Stat, One Play: Spurs limit the catch-and-shoot

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – The San Antonio Spurs are coming alive.

The champs have their second-worst winning percentage of the Tim Duncan era, but have won six straight games to move up to sixth place in the Western Conference. With the team’s top four perimeter players all shooting better than 50 percent during the winning streak, the Spurs’ offense has been the sharpest its been (112.6 points scored per 100 possessions) since early December.

The Spurs still rank outside the top 10 in offensive efficiency for the first time in six years. Their shooting has dropped off both in the paint and from 3-point range.

Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard have both dealt with injuries and taken steps backward on that end of the floor. And Boris Diaw hasn’t provided his usual brilliance off the bench.

But the Spurs have been getting the job done defensively all season. They rank in the top five in defensive efficiency for the third straight season and 14th time in Duncan’s 18 years in the league. No other franchise has ranked in the top five more than seven of those years.

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One reason the Spurs are so good defensively is their ability to limit their opponent’s catch-and-shoot jumpers. They allow just 21.2 per game, the fewest in the league.

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Effective field goal percentage drops significantly when you can make your opponent put the ball on the floor, mostly because your pushing him inside the 3-point line. But catch-and-shoot jumpers are also better shots (for the offense) from a pure make-or-miss perspective.

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The Spurs limit their opponent’s catch-and-shoot opportunities in a few different ways…

  1. They pressure the ball, making it tougher to make a direct pass to an open shooter.
  2. Their bigs hang back on pick-and-rolls, so that their teammates don’t have to help much on the roll man and can stay at home on the shooters.
  3. They close out aggressively, but at an angle to keep the ball away from the middle of the floor, where more passing lanes are available.
  4. If there is any help on pick-and-rolls, it doesn’t come out of the strong-side corner.

The video above is the latest installment “One Stat, One Play,” a look at a possession from Sunday where the Spurs prevent a Bulls catch-and-shoot jumper with a lot of the principles listed above. Chicago shot just 3-for-13 on catch-and-shoot jumpers in the Spurs’ win.

The Spurs put their six-game winning streak on the line against the visiting Cavs at 9:30 p.m. ET on Thursday in the second game of TNT’s doubleheader. Cleveland doesn’t shoot a lot of catch-and-shoot jumpers as a team, but Kevin Love and J.R. Smith both rank among the league leaders.

Blogtable: Upset-minded team in East?

Each week, we’ll ask our stable of scribes across the globe to weigh in on the most important NBA topics of the day — and then give you a chance to step on the scale, too, in the comments below.


BLOGTABLE: Extend the season? | Rethinking age limit? | Upset-minded East playoff team?



VIDEOPaul George is holding out hope he’ll be able to return for a potential playoff run

> If I told you a sleeper team was going to pull off a major upset in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs, which team would you tag to make that prediction come true: Bucks, Pacers, Hornets or Heat?

Steve Aschburner, NBA.com: Pacers, though I say that without trying to predict the first-round matchups. Indiana already is a different team that most foes have faced this season, and if Paul George is able to return and blend into what’s already working, the Pacers could bite a top seed in the behind. Now, if they wind up eighth and Atlanta stays at No. 1, that’s a tall order because the Hawks came close to upsetting them a year ago and are better now. But given the Pacers’ pride and desire to salvage what had been a mostly lost season, I’d take them very seriously.

Fran Blinebury, NBA.com: The Bucks with their stingy, No. 2-rated defense, 3-point shooting ability, rising youth in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Michael Carter-Williams and the been-there-done-that smarts of coach Jason Kidd. They could be a we-having-nothing-to-lose handful.

Scott Howard-Cooper, NBA.com: Maybe I’m just getting caught up in the good vibrations of the moment — stringing together wins, Paul George back on the practice court — but I’ll go Pacers. Same problems scoring, but Indy defends and rebounds. Tough not to like that as a starting point for an upset, obviously depending on the matchup. I’d put the Bucks a close second.

Shaun Powell, NBA.com: Honestly, I don’t like any of their chances, but I’ll go with the Bucks. They’ll likely have a better seeding and therefore a more evenly-matched first round. Plus, they’re young with fresh legs that’ll come in handy in late April, and their coach, Jason Kidd, has been there and done that in this league.

John Schuhmann, NBA.com: Indiana is the clear pick. The Pacers have been the best team in the league (both in regard to record and point differential) since Feb. 1. They have a great defense and an offense that has improved with a healthy George Hill in the starting lineup and Rodney Stuckey coming off the bench. They have a coach and a roster with playoff experience, and maybe one of the league’s best players coming back. But I would still have a hard time picking them against Atlanta, Chicago or Cleveland. 

Sekou Smith, NBA.com: I’m tagging the Pacers and relishing the idea, based on the standings at this moment, of a Cleveland Cavaliers-Pacers No. 2 vs No. 7 first-round matchup. Talk about a major upset, this one would be colossal. Paul George comes back. Roy Hibbert rediscovers the All-Star within. Coach Frank Vogel gets his revenge for last season’s meltdown and the team’s staggering fall from grace. Doing it at the expense of long-time foe LeBron James would only add to the intrigue of a storybook scenario for the Pacers … and it is indeed an absolute fantasy. I don’t think there are any upsets to be had in the first round. Not based on what we see in the standings right now.

Ian Thomsen, NBA.com: The Pacers are the East’s poor-man version of OKC. Based on their current trend with their best players – including Paul George – returning to health, then no one at the top of the standings is going to want to see Indiana.

Lang Whitaker, NBA.com’s All Ball blog: I have a hard time pegging the Pacers as an underdog, even as long as Paul George is out. This is a team with guys like Roy Hibbert, David West, George Hill, Luis Scola — quality NBA veteran players. I know that they’ve been without George this season and have dealt with other injuries, but if anything, to me the Pacers have the pieces to be better than they’ve been for most of this season. And then it’s not if George returns, it’s which George might return — I don’t expect to see the George who was one of the best players in the NBA, because that will take time to find and get back to, even just mentally. But I do think if they can get back any version of George that provides depth and is able to knock down an occasional open jumper, that could be a huge postseason help.

Upset-minded East teams
For more debates, go to #AmexNBA or www.nba.com/homecourtadvantage.

Blogtable: Time to rethink age limit?

Each week, we’ll ask our stable of scribes across the globe to weigh in on the most important NBA topics of the day — and then give you a chance to step on the scale, too, in the comments below.


BLOGTABLE: Extend the season? | Rethinking age limit? | Upset-minded East playoff team?


> An attorney for the NBPA says the union will fight to lower the age minimum during the next round of collective bargaining, and says that forcing players to attend college for one year is “completely ridiculous.” Agree or disagree? And why?

Steve Aschburner, NBA.com: Disagree for multiple reasons. One, it’s not “completely ridiculous;” that’s simplistic rhetoric for a topic worthy of legitimate debate. Two, the NBA is within its rights to set hiring policies. It doesn’t have to provide all jobs for all high-school graduates who want to get paid to play basketball. Getting NBA scouts out of high school gyms is a worthy objective. Not starting multimillion-dollar , guaranteed contracts for players so raw their deal is nearly up by the time they’re able to perform is a better one. I don’t give a hoot about the impact on NCAA basketball, but the NBA is a better league when its players (with rare exceptions) have developed more and grown up a little.

Fran Blinebury, NBA.com: Because it is arbitrary. Because we live in the United States of America, where the right to make a living should not be inhibited. And because one year of college does nothing to help the quality of either the NBA or  college games.

Scott Howard-Cooper, NBA.comIf the union wants to take a stand on bargaining away the jobs of current members, that’s on them. I can’t imagine it would be a very popular one among the rank-and-file players, primarily the many players whose goal will be to stay employed. Opening the door to more teenagers will increase the difficulty. On the specific topic at hand, though, my position for years has been to lower the age limit, while understanding it’s not the majority opinion. I don’t buy the part about “completely ridiculous” because there is a credible case to be made for requiring a prospect to be 19 years old in the calendar year of the Draft. I just think it doesn’t stand up. Also, point of clarification, no players are being forced to attend college for one season. Go overseas and make money. Go to the NBA D-League and work on your game while making gas money on top of it. College is a choice, not a demand.

Shaun Powell, NBA.com: The NBA isn’t restricting anyone’s ability to play basketball right out of high school. Anyone can go the Brandon Jennings route and play overseas and make money right away. The NBA is a big-boy league and, therefore, is only right to protect the quality of the game by imposing the current rule. One year of college isn’t a lifetime prison sentence. It not only allows 18-year-olds to spend another year learning the game, but maturing as young men, which sometimes gets lost in the desire to cash in immediately.

John Schuhmann, NBA.com: The league and its teams should invest more in the NBA D-League, so that it’s a full 30-team system with salaries that can compete with those in Europe or China, or at least make it easier for the country’s best non-NBA talent to stay home. The D-League is where players can go out of high school, get paid, get scouted, and become NBA-eligible in one or two years. More players getting paid more money, without taking any out of the pockets of the players who are already in the league, sounds like a good deal for the union. And if the best 18-and 19-year-olds were in the D-League, the NBA and its teams would get a return on their investment via ticket and TV revenue.

Sekou Smith, NBA.com: I’m a believer in the freedom of choice for anyone old enough to take care of him or herself without the aid of a consenting adult. So I’m fundamentally opposed to the idea of an age limit beyond a prospect’s graduating senior class in high school (or the international equivalent). I agree with the union’s premise that it’s completely ridiculous to force anyone dreaming of playing in the NBA to do anything other than abide by the same rules we ask anyone else who reaches the age of adulthood to abide by. Where we part ways, however, is when we talk about the value placed on the college experience. I think any experience gained while away from the comforts of adolescence is extremely valuable. And I’m thinking about more than just basketball. Some of these guys need to grow up a bit before being thrust into the fishbowl. Bottom line? Allow a prospect to enter the league after completing high school and then give them the opportunity to make their own, grown-up choices about what to do with their own lives.

Ian Thomsen, NBA.comThe union is fighting on behalf of high school seniors who, for the most part, will contribute very little as rookies because of all they have yet to learn. The union is not thinking about the larger consequences for the NBA overall, because that is not the union’s job. My opinion is that the NBA would benefit from a minimum age of 20 years, which would make sense especially if the NBA D-League became a highly-competitive league that helped players to develop and mature while teaching them how to win for the sake of the team. That scenario would create a better rookie class in addition to more jobs for the union.

Lang Whitaker, NBA.com’s All Ball blog: It is completely ridiculous, in that it just seems so random and arbitrary. Why one year of college? And why is the NCAA so complicit in this — the players don’t even have to really go to class to maintain eligibility for one year. At the same time, I get it from the player’s point of view, in the sense that the later guys get into the NBA and get on the clock with their rookie contract, the older they are when they finally hitfree agency. This means they might only get one big free agency contract instead of two big deals, which could be a difference of tens of millions of dollars. So are the guys in the league today really OK with passing that money along to guys who are in high school today? Maybe so. But I’d be surprised if they don’t want some for themselves. Either way, it doesn’t make sense.

Blogtable: Extend the season?

Each week, we’ll ask our stable of scribes across the globe to weigh in on the most important NBA topics of the day — and then give you a chance to step on the scale, too, in the comments below.


BLOGTABLE: Extend the season? | Rethinking age limit? | Upset-minded East playoff team?



VIDEOThe Starters give their view on extending the season into July

> The NBA says it is considering spacing out the 82-game regular season, and San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich is already on record saying he won’t be working in July. Are hot dogs, apple pie and basketball a good mix on Independence Day?

Steve Aschburner, NBA.com: NBA in July? No thank you. The season goes deep enough into the calendar as it is, players already are squeezed for offseason recovery and down time, there is lots of business already requiring the summer months (draft, Las Vegas, free agency, FIBA). The obvious fix is to shorten the preseason by a week to 10 days, play three or four tuneup games instead of seven or eight and start the NBA schedule a week before Halloween.

Fran Blinebury, NBA.com: The idea is a bigger dud than a wet firecracker on the Fourth of July. The season is already long … too long. With many players choosing to play for their national teams — Tony Parker and Nicolas Batum have already said they’re in for France at EuroBasket next summer — the offseason time to rest and heal would be shortened further.  On one hand, the commissioner talks of trimming off a few preseason games to provide more down time.  On the other, he has already lengthened the All-Star break to a week to make less.  The only truly serious solution to the problem of debilitating fatigue is simple — a shorter schedule, say 66 or 70 games. That would require owners netting less money from fewer home games and require players taking a corresponding cut in contracts. Both sides, of course, are due a windfall when the new TV contracts kick in. But neither side is willing to forgo a dollar. So it is all talk, some of it just silly, with a few cosmetic changes.

Scott Howard-Cooper, NBA.com: Sure. It will look weird at first and feel strange on the body clock because other big events will have to be pushed back –the Draft, NBA Summer League –but that’s nothing compared to the benefit: better play. Fewer back-to-backs or three games in four nights is a good thing for rosters and, therefore, a good thing for fans. There has to be some give as most people agree the extended All-Star break is a valuable rest stop and the idea of a little more breathing room in the schedule is a positive. Turning another page on the calendar, and it might not since that would mean the season going some two weeks longer now, would be a small price to pay.

Shaun Powell, NBA.com: No, no, no! Basketball isn’t meant to go beyond Father’s Day, let alone July 4th. Stretching the season is a sure way to turn off some hardcore fans (casual fans would flee like Russell Westbrook on the fast break). If the owners and players and networks really cared about the quality of the game, they would agree to play a 70-game schedule, eliminate exhibition games, start the season by mid-October, eliminate four-games-in-five-nights, reduce back-to-backs, and return to best-of-five for first-round playoff series. Which means, it’ll never happen because money always gets in the way.

John Schuhmann, NBA.com: I don’t like the idea of pushing into July. I’m all for limiting the preseason to just one or two games and starting the regular season in mid-October, though. That should eliminate four-games-in-five-nights scenarios and reduce the number of back-to-backs. And I think a 72-game schedule (three games against each team in your conference, two against the opposite conference) would help alleviate wear and tear and put extra value on every game.

Sekou Smith, NBA.com: I’m with Pop on this one. There is no need to drag the NBA season into July. That’s Summer League time anyway. I understand the need, for some, to always be about the business of advancing things and tinkering with things for the sake of tinkering. Growing the game (the number of teams, the size and scope of the pool of players, viewership around the globe, etc.) has always the been the rule. And we’ve all benefited from that growth. But bigger isn’t always better, at least not in this case. If we’re going to mess with the NBA schedule, the move needs to be pushing back the start of the regular season until Thanksgiving or Christmas and shortening the 82-game season by roughly 12 games. I don’t think there is any doubt that fans would appreciate the quality of that sort of NBA season over the quantity that Pop (and so many others of us opposed to a 4th of July NBA Finals) is balking at with the spaced out 82-game regular season.

Ian Thomsen, NBA.comEverything changes. Of all the changes that have transformed the NBA since the 1979 arrival of Magic Johnson and Larry Bird — overhauls of salary structure, media coverage (including social media), refereeing, global drafting and on and on — the idea of tacking on a few more days is almost not worthy of argument. As the money and the demands grow ever larger, it’s inevitable that the season will keep growing longer.

Lang Whitaker, NBA.com’s All Ball blog: To be honest, nothing other than Will Smith and Jeff Goldblum are a good mix on Independence Day. The NBA season need to be done by then, and preferably a few weeks before then. The obvious way to fix this — to space out the schedule while ending the season before July — is to shorten the season. It doesn’t have to be radical — maybe you could shave off 6 or 8 games. Or just cancel the preseason and back up the start of the regular season by a couple of weeks. Either way, whatever you do, I think we all agree that our Independence Day should be properly celebrated by sitting back and watching Randy Quaid invoke the words of his generation while flying a fighter plane nose-first into an alien spaceship. Not by watching the NBA.

One Stat, One Play: Russ in transition


VIDEO: One Stat, One Play: Westbrook in transition

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – Russell Westbrook‘s game was already ridiculous, but he’s taken things to a new level in the last few weeks.

Westbrook won Western Conference Player of the Month honors by averaging 31.2 points, 9.1 rebounds and 10.3 assists in February. And after missing a game to recover from a broken face, he put up 49 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists in his first game of March, an overtime win over the Sixers on Wednesday. It was his fourth straight triple-double and it made him the league’s leading scorer at 27.0 points per game.

The highlight of Westbrook’s performance was a coast-to-coast drive for a two-handed flushafter a timeout. It was Russ at his best, getting the ball on the defensive end of the floor, taking off in a full sprint, and not slowing down until he’s thrown down a vicious dunk.

Those were two of Westbrook’s 16 fast break points against Philly. Of the 25 other teams who played on Wednesday, only eight of them had as many fast break points as Westbrook had himself.

The 16 boosted Westbrook’s average to 7.8 fast break points per game, by far the highest average for any player since 1996-97 (when we could start tracking fast break points).

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The video above is the latest installment “One Stat, One Play,” a quick look at Westbrook in transition.

It starts with defense. The Thunder rank 11th in defensive efficiency, but second in opponent field goal percentage. They force missed shots better than any team but the Golden State Warriors.

Westbrook rebounds a lot of those missed shots. He’s grabbed 15.6 percent of available defensive rebounds, the highest rate of his career and a rate which ranks third among point guards who have played at least 1,000 minutes.

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And when Westbrook gets the rebound himself, the break has started before his comes back down. So get your butt back on D and hope you can slow him down.

Westbrook takes his triple-double streak and his transition game to Chicago at 8 p.m. ET Thursday for the first game of TNT’s double-header.

One Stat, One Play: A defensive lineup in Cleveland


VIDEO: One Stat, One Play: Cavs Starting 5

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – Thursday’s Warriors-Cavs game on TNT (8 p.m. ET) is a matchup of the two best starting lineups in the league.

Golden State’s starters have been fantastic all season, leading them to a league-best 44-10 record and top-two rankings in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Cleveland’s starting lineup has been together for just six weeks, but it’s been the league’s best lineup that has played at least 200 minutes.

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Like the Warriors’ starters, the Cavs’ group has been great on both ends of the floor. But the defense has been more important. Cleveland has been a bottom-10 defensive team all season, but they rank 13th since LeBron James returned from his two-week break on Jan. 13.

James has come back with more energy on both ends of the floor. And the addition of Timofey Mozgov have given the Cavs some much-needed rim protection.

Since he arrived from Denver, opponents have shot just 45.0 percent at the rim when Mozgov’s been their to defend it, a mark that ranks sixth in the league and is down from 48.8 percent in his 35 games with the Nuggets.

And Mozgov’s presence has allowed his teammates to defend the perimeter better. Cavs opponents have shot less and worse from 3-point range since James’ return, especially against the Cleveland starters.

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The video above is the latest installment “One Stat, One Play,” a look at a defensive possession where the Cavs are active, aggressive on the perimeter, and on a string, forcing a 24-second violation out of the Washington Wizards.

The Cavs still have a long way to go defensively. They still rank 22nd through Wednesday. But with how good their offense has been (it ranks No. 1 since James’ return), a little improvement on defense can go a long way.

There are a lot of reasons to watch Warriors-Cavs on Thursday. And the success of both starting lineups should have you tuning in right at 8:00.

Heat, Thunder could benefit from easy remaining schedules


VIDEO: GameTime: Will the Thunder make the playoffs?

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – The unofficial second half of the season gets underway Thursday night with a TNT doubleheader featuring four Western Conference teams looking to improve their position in the standings.

With about 2/3 of the season complete and 432 games left to play, there’s still much to be determined. It will mostly be determined by how each team plays, but also by who each team plays and where each team plays.

With that in mind, we have a breakdown of each team’s strength of schedule going forward.

First, a little explanation. Basic strength of schedule looks at the cumulative record of a team’s opponents. To get a little more advanced, we can look at the average NetRtg (point differential per 100 possessions) of those opponents. A team’s point differential is more indicative of future success than its record.

But there are other factors to how easy or difficult a team’s schedule is. There’s home vs. away and there’s back-to-backs, both for the team and their opponents.

We can account for those by adjusting the opponent’s NetRtg in either direction…

  • plus-2.6* for a road game.
  • minus-2.6 for a home game.
  • plus-2.3** when the team is playing the second night of a back-to-back and the opponent isn’t.
  • minus-2.3 when the opponent is playing the second night of a back-to-back and the team isn’t.

* Home teams have outscored road teams by 2.6 points per 100 possessions this season.
** When one team played the night before and the other didn’t, the rested team has been a plus-2.3 this season.

So the toughest game a team could play would be vs. the Warriors (+12.3) at Oracle Arena (+2.6) on the second night of a back-to-back, when the Warriors didn’t play the night before (+2.3). Nine different teams, including the Spurs on Friday, play such games.

The easiest game would be vs. the Sixers (-10.3) at home (-2.6), with rest and with Philly playing the second night of a back-to-back (-2.3). Three teams — Miami, Denver and New York — play such games.

There’s some math involved, but it’s not too complicated. With that in mind, here’s a look at the Eastern Conference, sorted by average adjusted opponent NetRtg (toughest schedule at the top, easiest at the bottom), but with traditional measures of strength of schedule as well.

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A couple of notes on the East…

  • The Cavs not only have the toughest schedule in regard to the records of their remaining opponents, they’re also on the road for 16 of the 27 games, including 14 of the next 19. That could make it harder for them to make a run at the No. 2 seed.
  • No team in the league has more remaining road games than the Raptors (18).
  • Of the six teams that have a shot at the last two playoff spots, Charlotte and Detroit have the toughest schedules, while Miami and Indiana have the easiest.

Here’s the West…

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  • The Mavs play the toughest set of opponents, but a lot of them will be on the second night of a back-to-back.
  • The Grizzlies have the most remaining back-to-backs. Two of the 10 will finish with visits to the Clippers.
  • The Warriors’ 21 games against teams currently over .500 are two more than any other team has.
  • The Thunder not only have Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and some pre-break momentum, but they have an easier schedule than both Phoenix and New Orleans in the battle for the eighth playoff spot. They have the most home-heavy remaining schedule in the league.

If you added a recency factor and used numbers from after Christmas instead of the whole season (which would account for improvement from the Hornets, Pistons and Thunder and regression from the Heat, Kings and Lakers), the schedule would look even easier for Oklahoma City. It would look tougher for Chicago and Washington.

Blogtable: Thankful for a break

Each week, we’ll ask our stable of scribes across the globe to weigh in on the most important NBA topics of the day — and then give you a chance to step on the scale, too, in the comments below.


BLOGTABLE: Team that needs a break? | Top Popovich memory? | East’s future title team?



VIDEO: Blake Griffin is expected to miss at least a few weeks as he recovers from surgery

> It’s an extended All-Star break this season, with most teams getting at least 7-8 days off between games. Which team needs this break the most?

Steve Aschburner, NBA.comIt’s easy to look at teams’ records over their past 10 games or so and point to the one(s) limping into the break at 3-7 or 2-8. But there’s no assurance stepping away from the court will fix anything. My answer is Sacramento – the Kings look like they’ll have a new, permanent coach in George Karl, clearing their air and bringing changes for what’s left of this regular season. 

Fran Blinebury, NBA.comThe Rockets and Clippers in the Western Conference can use the break just to keep the clock ticking on the rehab times of Dwight Howard and Blake Griffin. But the Rockets have demonstrated all season that they’re still capable of riding James Harden to wins and DeAndre Jordan showed the good things that can happen when he stepped up Monday night. But the team that could benefit most is Miami. The time off will help Dwyane Wade’s hamstring recover and to make sure Hassan Whiteside’s ankle is 100 percent. The Heat will need them both healthy for the stretch drive if they’re going to hold onto a playoff spot.

Scott Howard-Cooper, NBA.com: The Clippers and Trail Blazers come to mind first. Not because they have hit a bad stretch, although that too, but because of the prominent injuries. Blake Griffin may be back soon and LaMarcus Aldridge gets a few days to rest his injury, too. Being able to heal without missing a game for a week or so is a help. That would be the case anyway, but especially in the cage match that is the Western Conference standings.

Shaun Powell, NBA.com: The Clippers. They just finished up a tough Grammy road trip and when they return from the break, 11 of their next 14 games are against teams with winning records. Oh, and did I mention Blake Griffin needs perhaps three weeks to heal from elbow surgery? Done, then. Doc Rivers needs this time to help them regroup, find a system to use in Griffin’s absence, and also to study who might become available at or after the trade deadline to improve the bench.

John Schuhmann, NBA.comWith a lot of guys picking up injuries in the last couple of weeks, there are a lot of teams that could use the break to reduce the number of games those guys miss. And obviously, the most important of those guys is Blake Griffin, not only because he’s a great player, but because the Clippers’ bench is so awful. He’s still going to miss a lot of games after the break, but every little bit helps and seven days off is seven days closer to Griffin’s eventual return.

Sekou Smith, NBA.comThe rest that comes with this extended All-Star break will be enjoyed by all 30 teams. But no one needs the time to fine tune things more than the Oklahoma City Thunder. They need to take a deep breath before making their second half playoff charge. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook need a little practice time with Mitch McGary, the Thunder’s second-half X-factor, and they need to make sure they get everyone the needed time to recharge their batteries for what is going to be an absolutely wild ride to the finish.

Ian Thomsen, NBA.comThere must be a dozen title and/or playoff contenders who are going to benefit. But I’m going to focus on the Thunder, who are fighting with the Pelicans and Suns for the final playoff spot and can use these extra days to renew the health of Kevin Durant.

Lang Whitaker, NBA.com’s All Ball blogUm, all of them? Honestly, I can’t think of a team that doesn’t need a break, except for maybe Atlanta and Golden State, who have been so hot they may not want to disrupt their rhythm. I guess one team that may appreciate a rest more than most is Oklahoma City, which faces an uphill task the rest of the way as they try to fight their way not only toward finally getting everyone healthy but also up and into the postseason. And unlike most teams on the outside looking in, the Thunder will the hunted not the hunters, so they’ll have to do this with a target on their backs. Rest up, Thunder. It’s gonna be a bumpy ride.