Each week, we’ll ask our stable of scribes to weigh in on the three most important NBA topics of the day — and then give you a chance to step on the scale, too, in the comments below.
What pseudo-contender most needs a trade and won’t get it by Thursday’s deadline?
Steve Aschburner: Philadelphia. The Sixers sure could use a closer, a star offensive player who could get his own shots and, better still, earn trips to the foul line late in games. Evan Turner has been a boost to the starting lineup, but he’s not that guy. However, it’s hard to envision them breaking up the crew that has been so productive or tinkering with the chemistry of the ensemble. Getting center Spencer Hawes back is the next-best thing to a notable trade but a surgical move might have this team really pushing the Heat and the Bulls.
Fran Blinebury: Taking you at your word — pseudo-contender — then the biggest fake in the league was the notion that the Knicks could combine Jeremy Lin with Amar’e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony to make noise in the playoffs. In two weeks, we have gone from Linsanity to Linadequate and Linsufferable watching Melo and coach Mike D’Antoni do their dance of mistrust. The Knicks need a makeover. What they’ll likely get instead is D’Antoni’s head.
Scott Howard-Cooper: The Magic (with an emphasis on pseudo-contender, not top contender). I will stick to my belief of several weeks that they are not going to deal Dwight Howard, and there is no sense in the thinking that they will be able to make a major addition to convince Howard they can surround him with a championship roster. The second-best trade asset in Orlando is Ryan Anderson. That doesn’t generate a big return. (more…)
BOSTON – The individual basketball ability of a particular player isn’t too hard to quantify. But what about a player’s ability to complement other players?
Some people at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference this weekend tried to determine the best way to put a team together. Two research papers regarding NBA chemistry were presented on Friday, each using a different method to figure out what types of players mesh well.
Robert Ayer, an MIT MBA, first presented a paper (click for pdf) called “Big 2’s and Big 3’s: Analyzing How a Team’s Best Players Complement Each Other.” Using data going back to 1977, Ayer grouped players in 14 different categories like “Limited, role-playing centers” and “Wing 3-point shooters.”
Then he determined the best two (or three) players from each team and measured if that team overachieved or underachieved according to their overall talent level, while also taking coaching into account. By doing that, he could figure out which Big 2 and Big 3 combinations helped their teams overachieve most.
Ayer’s conclusion was that the best Big 2 combination was from Category 8 (“Multi-faceted, high scoring wings, with high assists for their position and are great 3 point shooters”) and Category 12 (“High scoring post players, high rebounds, high block”). Current examples of those players would be Joe Johnson and Dwight Howard.
The Oklahoma City Thunder believe that they are storming their way to a championship. Raining on the Magic’s parade in Orlando would be another indication that OKC is bound to devastate all comers on their righteous path to glory.
Meanwhile, Orlando has several issues that have conspired to drop them into the lower bracket of playoff-seeded teams in the Eastern Conference. Chief among these is the uncertainty surrounding the immediate and long-range future of Dwight Howard. Otis Smith and the rest of the front office are hoping that a win over the Thunder just might convince Howard that the Magic have a legitimate shot at the championship, and encourage him to finish his career in Disneyland South.
HOW THE THUNDER CAN WIN
Notwithstanding the warp speed of Chris Paul and Rajon Rondo, Russell Westbrook is quicker with the ball than any point guard in the league. As such, there’s no way that Chris Duhon or Jameer Nelson (assuming his sore knees allow him to play) can keep Westbrook from zipping the ball into the paint whenever the spirit moves him. In so doing, the Magic’s defense will be forced to collapse en masse to prevent Westbrook from shooting multiple layups. By virtue of Westbrook’s timely kick-out passes, the Thunder’s sharp-shooters will have the time and space to launch uncontested treys. Moreover, Westbrook is a rhythm shooter, who rarely misses when he can pull-up right.
PHILADELPHIA – This schedule is going to test every one of the league’s 30 teams, both mentally and physically, at one point or another. Right now, it’s the Orlando Magic’s turn.
On Monday, the Magic completed a stretch of six games in eight days, with a 74-69 defeat at the hands of the Sixers. The Magic lost five of the six games, with this one, in which they shot 33 percent from the field, being the least embarrassing of the five losses.
Of course, with Dwight Howard seeking greener pastures, the Magic have additional stress to deal with. And after watching the Magic play some awful basketball of late, it’s easy to say that Howard and his teammates are mailing it in.
Magic coach Stan Van Gundy admits that he can’t fully diagnose his team’s problems, but he definitely isn’t going to worry about the Howard situation anymore than he has in the past.
“That becomes a real convenient excuse,” Van Gundy said, “when things start going badly and now you’ve lost four in a row, and all of a sudden that’s the situation. Well, was it the situation the night of the Indiana game (a 102-83 win)? Yeah, it was the same situation. So how much it’s wearing on people, I don’t know. All I know is we were able to play well in spite it before.”
In the aftermath of their annihilation of the Magic on Monday in Boston, the Celtics have a chance to further deflate Orlando’s confidence with a repeat performance. Another victory might also put to rest the widespread belief that it’s time for Danny Ainge to back up the truck and initiate a long and painful rebuilding process.
On the other side of the equation, it’s commonplace for a team to relax when several of their opponent’s key players are down and out — which was the case on Monday with Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Mickael Pietrus, and even Keyon Dooling and Chris Wilcox unavailable. The Magic couldn’t avoid thinking beforehand that the game would be a cakewalk. Instead, several of Boston’s subs took advantage of their increased daylight by playing with unexpected passion and discipline. As a result, the home-standing Magic have their pride on the line tonight in an early season must-win situation.
HOW THE CELTICS CAN WIN: Neither Hedo Turkoglu nor Ryan Anderson can come close to containing Paul Pierce. Because of Boston’s nifty ball movement, Orlando’s defensive rotators were too far away to provide meaningful help when PP was placed in wing isolations. More of this same tactic is advisable.
Gotta love the Blazers. For all the management changes and whatnot, they finally have the look of a cohesive and fluid team right now, one that’s a legit contender. LaMarcus Aldridge is almost certainly headed for his first All-Star Game, Jamal Crawford has proven to be a worthy pickup (if not replacement) for retired All-Star Brandon Roy. Nate McMillan is getting it done as a coach again and the Blazers will give Oklahoma City a run for the division title if this keeps up.
I wonder, though, if the good times will last beyond this season. That’s because Kerry Eggers of the Portland Tribune raised a few good points in recent days. The Blazers will be faced with several major off-season decisions, and while that seems so far into the distance, it’s something for the franchise must consider right now as it takes stock of certain players and how they’re progressing, or not.
At the top of the list, of course, is Greg Oden. If you haven’t noticed, he’s still invisible. And nobody knows if he’ll ever wear a Blazers’ uniform this season or ever again, as Eggers points out:
When I approached the No. 1 pick in the 2007 draft in the locker room before Sunday night’s game with Cleveland at the Rose Garden, he told me, “I’m still not talking about it right now.”
Or about anything, I guess.
Since he flew to Vail, Colo., for a meeting with Dr. Richard Steadman — the specialist who performed the surgery — in early December and spoke with The Oregonian’s Jason Quick, Oden hasn’t done any media.
Team trainer Jay Jensen won’t talk about Oden, and interim general manager Chad Buchanan speaks only in vague terms about the oft-injured, oft-maligned would-be player.
I can’t get an answer as to what Steadman and the other medical people saw in Oden’s December MRI that was termed by team president Larry Miller a “setback,” slowing his progress toward a return to on-court duty.
“It wasn’t as encouraging as we’d hoped,” is all Buchanan will say.
One report said the MRI showed a problem area in a non-weight-bearing ligament in the knee, but nobody with the club will confirm that. Oden evidently had no symptoms or anything to cause alarm. What, then, was it?
“I’d prefer not to talk about specifics,” Buchanan says politely.
The Nuggets and Blazers have had discussions about Denver trading point guard Raymond Felton and the 22nd pick for Andre Miller and the No. 21 pick. The talks appear to be dormant for now, with Portland balking at including other assets in the deal.
Earlier in the day, DraftExpress’ Jonathan Givonyreported via Twitter that the Magic and Blazers were discussing a swap of Orlando’s Jameer Nelson to Portland for Miller and the No. 21 pick. The Orlando Sentinel‘s Josh Robbins, however, refuted that report:
Orlando Magic General Manager Otis Smith joked the other day on a local sports-talk radio show that trade rumors always surround Jameer Nelson.
Add another unsubstantiated rumor — with heavy emphasis on the words “unsubstantiated rumor” — to the list, courtesy of Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com.
Givony said over Twitter today that the Magic “are talking about” a trade with the Portland TrailBlazers that would send point guard Jameer Nelson out west for point guard Andre Miller and the 21st overall pick in tonight’s 2011 NBA draft.
However, an NBA source indicated to the Orlando Sentinel that the report is being overblown — at least for now.
In other words: No matter how juicy this rumor seems to be, you’d be best-served to temper your expectations of it actually happening.
“I don’t think it’s wide open,” Van Gundy said. “The media seems to have made their decision and they’re the ones who vote, so I think it’s over.” Asked to make the case for Howard, Van Gundy said: “To me, with his rebounding, his scoring and his defense, I just don’t think there’s anybody that impacts as many possessions in a game as Dwight does. I think Derrick Rose has been great. I will have no problem at all if Derrick Rose wins the MVP. They’ve got the best record in the East; he’s been clearly their leader. You can make a great case for him. I have never been running down another guy. I think it’s a hard choice to make…but I still don’t think anyone impacts the game as many possessions as Dwight does.”
As much entertainment as Van Gundy provides, the his players are cooking up a hockey-themed stunt for the playoffs that should make things even more hilarious around the locker room in the coming weeks.
After much deliberation, they have decided to grow playoff beards. And they have vowed not to shave them until their playoff run, however long it ends up being, is over. The NBA Finals don’t usually end until mid to late June.
HANG TIME HEADQUARTERS – With a handful of the best and most dynamic point guards on display in the 60th All-Star Game, it’s easy to see why so many people left the Staples Center Sunday night raving about all that we saw.
Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo are just a part, the best part, of what we would argue is the most polished crop of point guards the NBA has seen in years and maybe ever.
It makes for an easy night for superstars like Kevin Durant, who was on the receiving end all night.
“Playing with great players, I kind of get lost. I was trying to find positions for me to get easy shots,” Durant said. “Chris Paul is an unbelievable point guard and has unbelievable vision. Deron Williams and Russell Westbrook as well and I was able to make some shots.”
As strong as the first tier of point guards has become, there is just as robust a crop of second tier point guards (Raymond Felton, Jameer Nelson, Brandon Jennings, Tyreke Evans, Ty Lawson and others, including hybrids like Steph Curry) and a veteran group (Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups, Tony Parker, Andre Miller, Derek Fisher and others) that remains as dangerous as anyone with a game on the line and in the postseason.
There are a handful of virtuoso performances turned in seemingly every night, Jennings did the honors last night (as you can see in the video below). And the head-to-head matchups are always intriguing, Westbrook and Parker matchup tonight in prime time when the Thunder and Spurs go at it at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Good luck trying to win an argument about who might be the best. None of them are identical. They all bring a different set of talents to the table, some defying the stereotype of the traditional, “pass-first” point guard and instead putting their own unique spin on the game’s most important position in what appears to be a golden era for the position.
Each week, we’ll ask our stable of scribes to weigh in on the three most important NBA topics of the day — and then give you a chance to step on the scale, too, in the comments below.
Is it time to lay some of the blame in Orlando on Dwight Howard, or are we being a little harsh?
David Aldridge: You’re being a little harsh, unless you’re criticizing him for asking for better players around him. I’m not. On the court, his one drawback is the free throws, but you’d still take the overall package with that one flaw, right?
Steve Aschburner: More than a little harsh, frankly. Howard is at or near career highs in many categories, including points per game, rebounds, steals and PER. He is carrying a bigger load offensively these days. But opponents use gang tactics on him with their bigs, because Marcin Gortat is gone and GM Otis Smith hasn’t beefed up his frontcourt. It also is a reminder that, great as a big fellow is, he’s not initiating the action and is more dependent on the quality of his backcourt and wing teammates. It’s the reason Kevin Garnett, in his prime, could play on teams winning just 33 (2005-06) and 32 games (2006-07).
Fran Blinebury: If there’s a guy on the Magic who doesn’t deserve the flak, it’s the one averaging 22.4 points, 13.7 rebounds, 2.1 blocks and shooting 57.9 percent from the field. I suppose Howard could put the ball in the basket for Gilbert Arenas and Hedo Turkoglu and get Jameer Nelson to play defense. Remember, the last time Orlando started dogging the big fella in the middle for all of the team’s shortcomings, that didn’t end up too well. (more…)
Fran Blinebury: Taking you at your word — pseudo-contender — then the biggest fake in the league was the notion that the Knicks could combine Jeremy Lin with Amar’e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony to make noise in the playoffs. In two weeks, we have gone from Linsanity to Linadequate and Linsufferable watching Melo and coach Mike D’Antoni do their dance of mistrust. The Knicks need a makeover. What they’ll likely get instead is D’Antoni’s head.
