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Bosh In Need Of Redemption

June 7, 2013  ·  2:46PM



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MIAMI – Gregg Popovich didn’t need nine days to figure out a game plan for the Miami Heat.

The San Antonio Spurs’ coach needed to watch just nine minutes of footage from the Eastern Conference finals matchup between the Heat and Indiana Pacers to find the weak link his team could exploit in The Finals.

Heat center Chris Bosh made the job easy for him, sticking out on offensive and defensive possessions where he wasn’t engaged in the action. He also played smaller than you’d expect from an eight-time All-Star and a $100 million man who has already anointed himself a future Hall of Famer.

Bosh played to the Spurs’ script in San Antonio’s Game 1 win, making just six of his 16 shot attempts, grabbing just four rebounds and coming up woefully short in the fourth quarter. He missed a wide open 3-pointer with 1:02 to play and the Heat trailing by four, a shot the Spurs will let him take anytime in this series.

“We had an opportunity to get into the paint,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “He was open … probably for a reason at that point. But we had a couple of different options, triggers to get guys into the paint or to get into another situation. You know what, we’ll take that shot. He’s been making those. It’s an open shot in the fourth quarter. It didn’t come down to that.”

Sure it did, for Bosh, who needs a redemption game in the worst way in Game 2 Sunday.

It came down to that and all the other missed opportunities to assert himself, both in the conference finals (where he averaged 11.0 points and 4.3 rebounds against Pacers big men Roy Hibbert and David West) and in the 47 minutes leading up to that 3-point miss in Game 1 against the Spurs.

The Spurs left Bosh open the way you would expect them to leave Joel Anthony, the Heat’s former starting center, open in the same situation. It’s not so much a sign of disrespect of Bosh’s game but a nod to the obvious. Bosh is struggling mightily this postseason — the last big-time game he had was in Game 3 of the conference semifinals against Chicago when he finished with 20 points, 19 rebounds and two blocks in the Heat’s 104-94 win.

Bosh hasn’t scored more than 17 points in any game since then and didn’t even manage double digits in the last four games of the conference finals. He hasn’t had a double-digit rebound game since then, either — a stretch of 10 straight playoff games. That’s unacceptable for a player in Bosh’s tax bracket.

Even more perplexing is his reluctance to challenge the Spurs inside. Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter are classic big men but not the rugged forces inside that Hibbert and West are. And yet Bosh rarely ventured inside in Game 1. He missed all four of his 3-point attempts, taking as many as Ray Allen, and only four of his 16 shot attempts came inside the paint, where he was 1-for-4. The only real damage he did against the Spurs was with his mid-range game, going 5-for-8 on those shots.

It’s clear that Bosh has allowed his solid 3-point shooting effort in the playoffs (15-for-31 for 48 percent prior to Game 1) to convince him that he’s more effective from distance. That’s why he claims his confidence hasn’t wavered in recent weeks or after he came up empty in Game 1.

“It’s a part of sports,” he said of his late miss from deep. “You really don’t have to think about it. You just react. And that’s something I always lived by no matter what the situation is. I have confidence in myself and my teammates have confidence in me, every shot that I shoot I expect it to go in. Some do and some don’t.”

But sometimes those numbers can lie. They don’t always tell the true story. And the Spurs want, better yet, they need Bosh to believe in them. They need him to play into their hands by drifting on the perimeter and allowing them to lock down the lane defensively.

Bosh has been non-existent in the pick-and-roll, mostly because he hasn’t shown any inclination to roll to the basket. That allows the Spurs to collapse the lane the same way Indiana did against LeBron James and Dwyane Wade and leaves the Heat with one less body around the basket to help on the boards.

Bosh has to find a way to leave much larger footprint on this series. Some way, some how, he has to be a factor.

“Anytime you get into a series, you have to recognize how a team is playing you. And sometimes it’s not your series,” Allen said. “I’ve been in several series where scoring-wise it wasn’t really in my direction – teams were taking me out. So it’s important you find a way to have an impact. Shane [Battier] came in the game last night, he altered shots, he got loose balls, he got us second-chance opportunities, and he had a great impact on the game. So each one of us has to find a way to have that impact on the floor.

‘With CB, there’s so many opportunities in the paint,” Allen continued. “We’re going to have to rely on him, we’re going to need him. And if he doesn’t score a bucket for us to to be efficient and effect the game, that goes for all of us. We have to be willing to make that sacrifice. I don’t think his confidence has wavered. I just always say I can make it easier on him out there when that ball comes. Especially early, trying to get him into the paint a little bit more. When the ball comes to him, just get that second-chance pick-and-roll where I can come off and get it back to him, so he can get something a little short or something rolling to the rim so he can get some easy buckets.”

The choice is simple for Bosh: he either makes the adjustment to his game and acquaints himself with the painted area or risks more performances like the ones he’s turned over the past 10 games. He either does a little film study of his own, breaking down his own shortcomings and highlighting the things he can tweak in his own game or continues to be the Heat’s weakest link in this postseason and this series.

But there’s no doubt about it, more than anyone else, the burden is on Bosh to change the course of this series for the Heat.

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Posted in 2013 The Finals / Comments (129) /

The Plays That Got Them Here

June 6, 2013  ·  11:06AM

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MIAMI – The most important play in a game isn’t always the one you remember most. Sometimes, it’s subtle and doesn’t even make the highlight reel. Sometimes, something as simple as a change in possession can be more important than a shot that does or doesn’t go in.

The NBA has a way to use analytics to figure out just which plays had the biggest impact on a close game. It’s a “leverage” model that was developed to evaluate and instruct referees by pointing out which calls or no-calls had the biggest impact on a game’s result.

Here’s the idea: At every point of a game, each team has a certain probability of winning. Putting the quality of each team to the side, when the game tips off, the home team has a 60 percent probability of winning and the road team has a 40 percent probability of winning. After the first basket, those numbers haven’t changed much. But if the home team is up 10 with the ball and five minutes to go in the fourth quarter, their win probability (WP) is obviously a lot greater than 60 percent.

So, by calculating win probability both before and after a play occurs, it can be determined just how important that play was. Score, possession and location are the factors. And obviously, plays in the last few minutes of the fourth quarter (or overtime) in a close game are more important than any others.

Using the league’s data model, we’ve determined the 10 most important plays made by the Miami Heat or San Antonio Spurs on their way to The Finals.

10. +18.7 percent – Conference semis, Game 5 – Heat get multiple stops on the Bulls’ final possession.
With 26 seconds left, Miami up by three (94-91) and Chicago in possession, Miami had an 81.3 percent WP. After the inbounds, Nate Robinson advanced the ball and attempted a 3-pointer with 18 seconds on the clock that was contested by Norris Cole. Just before the shot, Miami had a slightly better chance of winning (83.6 percent) than at the start of the possession because eight seconds had run off the clock.

Had Robinson’s shot gone in, Miami’s WP would have dropped to 60.3 percent (about -20 percent) with the tie, possession and about 18 seconds left. Instead, the shot missed and the Bulls got the rebound. With just three seconds left, they set up Jimmy Butler for another 3-point attempt to tie.

At that point, Miami’s WP was up to 95.5 percent, but had Butler’s shot gone in as time expired, sending the game to overtime, Miami’s WP would have been cut from 81.3 percent at the start of the possession to about 58.3 percent at the start of OT (-30%). Instead, the shot missed the series was over.

9. +18.9 percent – Conference semis, Game 1 – Boris Diaw hits a three with 2:27 left in the first overtime
With 2:49 left in the first OT, Diaw rebounds a Draymond Green shot that could have given the Warriors a five-point lead. With possession and down three (111-108), the Spurs WP was 28.1 percent. After they advance the ball and swing it around, Manu Ginobili drives into the paint, draws Diaw’s defender, and hits him in the corner for an open three. Diaw drains it, increasing the Spurs’ WP to 46.9 percent. They went on to win in double-OT.

8. +19.0 percent – Conference semis, Game 1 – Dwyane Wade’s steal sets up LeBron James’ three-point play.
With 7:18 left in the fourth quarter, Miami leading Chicago 70-69. and the Bulls in possession, the Heat had a WP of 57.4 percent. At 7:07, Wade steals a pass from Marco Belinelli, increasing Miami’s WP to 64.8%. That’s a jump of +7.3 percent just for the change of possession. But Wade then gets the ball to James, who is grabbed around the shoulders by Butler and still manages to hit a shot with his left hand at 7:04. He makes the free throw, increasing Miami’s WP to 76.5 percent. But the Bulls would come back to win the game, 93-86.

7. +20.9 percent – Conference finals, Game 1 – Chris Bosh gets an and-one tip-in
With 1:20 to go in overtime, Miami is down 99-96 when James rebounds a Lance Stephenson miss. At that point, their WP is 24.5 percent. Bosh misses a three, but James gets the offensive board and sets up Shane Battier for another three. At that point, the Heat’s WP is down to 23.3 percent.

Battier misses, but Bosh rises over Roy Hibbert, gets fouled by Paul George, and tips in the miss. The tip-in with no foul would have increased Miami’s WP 32.8 percent, but when Bosh ties the game with the free throw, Miami’s WP increased to 45.4 percent, for a total possession increase of 20.9%. The Heat went on to win with a play that’s further down this list.

6. +21.3 percent – Conference finals, Game 1 – Cole steals inbounds pass
This was a judgement call as to whether there was a change of possession, because Cole never really had control of the ball, but the scorer tallied it as two successive turnovers.

With the Pacers down three and 10.8 seconds left in OT, George Hill drops the inbounds pass and Cole gets his hands on it. There’s a scramble for the ball at the mid-court line and Hill gets the ball back. He gets it to George, who is fouled by Wade on a 3-point attempt.

Before the play, the Heat’s WP was 71.8 percent, and the first change of possession increased it to 93.1 percent.

5. +22.5 percent – Conference semis, Game 1 – Diaw steal leads to Danny Green lay-up
With the score tied at 111 and 2:08 left in overtime, the Spurs’ WP was 46.6 percent, because the Warriors have possession. But Diaw steals a Draymond Green pass in the lane and gets the ball to Tony Parker, who finds Danny Green for a lay-up with 2:02 left. The steal increased the Spurs’ WP to 59.3 percent and the basket increased it to 69.1 percent.

So Diaw made two huge plays in the Spurs’ Game 1 win over the Warriors. But there were two bigger…

4. +22.6 percent – Conference semis, Game 1 – Danny Green’s three ties the game in regulation



Down three with 29 seconds left, the Spurs’ WP was 22.4 percent. But they run a great misdirection play to get Green an open three from the right wing. He makes it with 20.8 seconds left, increasing their WP to 45.0 percent.

3. +23.6 percent – Conference semis, Game 4 – James’ steal leads to Wade’s three-point play
This one is interesting, because there were still six minutes left in the fourth, but it was essentially a four-point swing, because the Pacers scored about a point per possession in the series.

With the Pacers about to inbound the ball with exactly 6:00 on the clock, the score was tied at 83 and the Heat’s WP was just 41.9 percent (because they were on the road and didn’t have possession). But James steals George’s awful inbounds pass and gets the ball to Wade, who gets fouled by David West and goal-tended by George.

The steal itself increased Miami’s WP to 50.5 percent and the three-point put it at 65.5 percent. But the Pacers would recover and win the game.

2. +61.3 percent – Conference semis, Game 1 – Ginobili’s three wins it in double-OT



With the Spurs down one with 3.4 seconds left, their WP was 35.7 percent. Ginobili’s three left 1.2 seconds on the clock, but increased their WP to 97.0 percent.

1. +77.6 percent – Conference finals, Game 1 – James’ game-winner



From 22.4 percent to 100 percent.

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Posted in 2013 Conference Finals: Pacers-Heat, 2013 Conference Semis: Heat-Bulls, 2013 Conference Semis: Spurs-Warriors, 2013 NBA Finals: Spurs-Heat / Comment (1) /

Corner 3-Pointers, Paint Play Will Likely Dicate These NBA Finals

June 5, 2013  ·  12:42PM

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MIAMI – One of the most intriguing aspects of this year’s Finals matchup is that the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs have never really played each other.

Gregg Popovich sat his stars in their Nov. 29 meeting and Erik Spoelstra sat his on March 31. So there’s really no head-to-head data to look at in previewing the series.

The two teams played once last season, but both Manu Ginobili and Dwyane Wade missed that one. Besides, both of these teams have evolved quite a bit in the 16 months since that game.

The Heat have fully embraced their pace-and-space style, which elevated them to the No. 1 offense in the league. The Spurs, meanwhile, took a good look at their defensive numbers and figured out how to get back to being a top-three D. At the same time, the Heat regressed a few points per 100 possessions defensively and the Spurs did the same offensively.

Still, they were two of the three teams– Oklahoma City was the other — that ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the regular season. And we’ve now got a matchup of the best offensive team and the best defensive team of the playoffs.

Heat pace and efficiency

Pace Rank OffRtg Rank DefRtg Rank NetRtg Rank
Reg. Season 93.0 23 110.3 1 100.5 7 +9.9 2
Playoffs 89.2 14 108.4 1 97.6 4 +10.8 2

Spurs pace and efficiency

Pace Rank OffRtg Rank DefRtg Rank NetRtg Rank
Reg. Season 96.4 6 105.9 7 99.2 3 +6.8 3
Playoffs 92.2 8 106.5 2 95.4 1 +11.1 1

The most efficient shots on the floor are at the rim and from the corners. And a deeper look into the numbers shows that both teams are strong, both offensively and defensively, from those spots. It’s as if both coaches know what they’re doing. (more…)

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Posted in 2013 NBA Finals: Spurs-Heat / Comments (25) /

Report: Clippers Targeting Pacers’ Shaw

June 5, 2013  ·  9:50AM



MIAMI – The Los Angeles Clippers might have solution to whatever problems have been created with prized point guard Chris Paul recently.

Former Lakers and current Indiana Pacers’ assistant Brian Shaw is at the top of the Los Angeles Clippers’ wish list, according to Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLosAngeles.com, along with Memphis Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins. One of these guys could help give the Clippers some much-needed stability in their coaching situation with free agency less than a month away:

Shaw is considered the team’s top choice at this point, multiple sources said. His youth, championship experience with the Los Angeles Lakers and player development skills, which have been showcased by his work with Indiana’s Paul George and Lance Stephenson, have intrigued the Clippers management and players. He also received strong reviews from Clippers forward Lamar Odom, who played under Shaw with the Lakers.

But since no candidate has formally interviewed for the position, or met with Clippers owner Donald Sterling, the situation remains fluid. The Clippers front office has done extensive background work on a handful of candidates: Shaw, Hollins, former Cleveland coach Byron Scott, former Phoenix coach Alvin Gentry, ESPN analyst Jeff Van Gundy and Denver head coach George Karl.

Van Gundy was previously near the top of the Clippers search, but talks with him have cooled recently, sources said. Karl is also still under consideration, but the Clippers have yet to formally ask permission from Denver to speak with him. Karl, the NBA’s Coach of the Year after leading the starless Nuggets to a franchise-record 57 wins, will enter the final year of his contract with a new general manager at the helm, following Masai Ujiri‘s departure to Toronto. A source said Saturday that his situation in Denver remains “unsettled.”

Convincing Shaw to leave the Pacers for the Clippers would be a coup for the franchise that has bungled the process since coach Vinny Del Negro was let go. But they have to move quickly where Shaw is concerned since he’s at the top of Brooklyn’s search list as well. Both jobs offer some interesting specifics for a first-time coach.

The respective owners, the Clippers’ Donald Sterling and the Nets’ Mikhail Prokhorov, have very different styles. And you better believe that will be a factor in Shaw’s decision-making process, depending on how quickly things process on both fronts.

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Posted in HT News / Comments (36) /

With The Offseason Right Moves, Indiana’s Future Is Looking Bright

June 4, 2013  ·  2:49AM

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MIAMI – Paul George‘s season ended before the Indiana Pacers’ did, which was pretty ironic, considering how much shorter it would have been without him in his new and Most-Improved incarnation from November to June.

But George picked up his sixth foul with 7:43 left in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals against Miami. The young All-Star got slammed, competitively, by the defending champions: 2-for-9 shooting, seven points, hounded almost start to finish by LeBron James. And so did the Pacers, who had stayed within five points of the Heat through the series’ first six games, only to get beaten Monday by a disappointing 23.

Of all the players on the floor, though, from the Finals-worthy Heat to the summer-bound Pacers, none has a brighter future than George — the 23-year-old Scottie Pippen-play-alike whose reach has yet to exceed his grasp.

And given where other teams are at in their life cycles, none has a brighter future than Indiana. George’s breakout season and series sparked the Pacers as they pushed a team built around Hall of Famers that strung together victories at a historical rate to the max.

From Feb. 1 through the East finale, Miami went 42-2 against the rest of the NBA and 5-5 against Indiana. The Pacers are not going away.

“I’m proud of what we had this year,” George said in the tight visitors’ dressing room. “I don’t know, I just think what we had this year and going through what we did, gave us the experience. So us being in this situation this year and being young, I think this was what we really needed. … I don’t know what moves we need or what moves we’ll make, but we needed this to take that next step.”

Indiana has followed one of the NBA’s most time-tested blueprints, taking steps in each of the last three postseasons in building itself into a contender. Two seasons ago, it pestered Chicago in a feisty first-round series. Last year, Miami put the Pacers out in six semifinal games. This time, it took the Heat seven, with their veterans summoning all the desperation and will they could muster.

But they’d be kidding themselves if they thought that time and a good thumping one round later than a year ago would transform them. Indiana does have a future brighter than just about any other team – if it can address some key flaws. (more…)

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Posted in 2013 Conference Finals: Pacers-Heat / Comments (120) /

Heat Turn Up The Defense To Punch Their Ticket Back To The Finals

June 4, 2013  ·  2:39AM

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MIAMI – The Miami Heat didn’t let Game 7 come down to shot-making. That’s a good thing, because they shot 39 percent.

The No. 1 defensive team in the league was the No. 2 defensive team on the floor on Monday, because the Heat found another level. And with a 99-76 victory over the Indiana Pacers, they’re moving on to The Finals for the third straight year. This game was about energy, on defense and on the glass. The Heat brought it from the start, reminding us how disruptive they can be when they enhance their speed and athleticism with relentless effort.

The Heat just haven’t been the defensive force that they were last season. Maybe it was a championship hangover or maybe their improved and top-ranked offense just didn’t need as much help to win games. They’ve been able to turn it on defensively — a couple of games or a couple of quarters at a time — but the consistency just wasn’t there.

In Game 7, it was there. The Heat attacked the Pacers’ Achilles’ heel — their inability to hold on to the ball under pressure — and made it impossible for them to find any offensive rhythm. Only once before garbage time set in did the Pacers score on three straight possessions, something that they did 10 times in Game 6.

“We wanted to really impose our energy defensively,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said, “and really get to our identity of pressuring them, hopefully making them make mistakes.”

The Heat’s defense was a swarm, attacking the Pacers’ pick-and-roll ball handler, and then recovering to attack the poor soul who got the ball next. At times, you had to count the Heat players on the court just to make sure there weren’t six or seven of them.

“They were a lot more aggressive on their back side,” David West, accountable for six of Indiana’s 21 turnovers, said. “They were there on the catch. They didn’t allow — particularly to Roy [Hibbert] — a lot of space.”

Hibbert scored 18 points on an efficient 7-for-11 shooting, because he was effective as a roll man. But he was surrounded on his post catches and when he tried to crash the offensive glass. For the second time in three games, he tallied only two offensive boards. More damaging were the turnovers. Indiana had nine in the first quarter and 15 by the half. They scored just 37 points 46 first-half possessions, making it almost inconsequential what the Heat were doing offensively.

LeBron James scored 32 points, but it was Dwyane Wade who typified the Heat’s night. The guy who struggled through the first six games, drawing criticism – and Larry Hughes comparisons – from all angles, was the guy who really got his team over the hump in what will be remembered as a fantastic series, despite the Game 7 margin.

After shooting 11-for-34 in Games 4-6, Wade was a solid 7-for-16 on Monday, though he still struggled with his jumper. He was 2-for-9 from outside of five feet.

But he got 17 points in the restricted area or at the free-throw line. They were energy points. Wade attacked the paint and attacked the glass. Five of the 17 came from his own offensive rebounds, of which he had six, three more than any other player on the floor. Those six boards produced nine second-chance points total.

With the season on the line, Wade answered the call. This wasn’t his best game, but he did not lack for effort.

“That’s probably the hardest he’s played,” West said. “We knew he, at times, was in and out of the series, just in terms of his impact.

“I thought he beat us in the effort department and he physically played harder tonight than we had seen in the previous six games.”

The effort didn’t come without a big assist from James, who took on the Paul George assignment defensively and looked to get Wade involved early. James knew he needed some help to get through this game, and he didn’t want to run out ahead of his teammates and wonder if they were going to join him.

“I called a couple of sets for him early in the game,” James said of Wade, “just to get a feel for it. And it showed throughout the whole game that he was in the rhythm.”

That was more than enough for the Heat, who beat the Pacers at what they do best, grabbing 15 offensive boards and getting to the line 38 times. In Game 7, Miami held Indiana (eight offensive boards, 20 free throw attempts) in check in both categories. Really, that was more important. The game was won at Indiana’s end of the floor, where the Heat out-defended the best defense in the league.

“They taught us a lesson,” Pacers coach Frank Vogel said. “They’ve won it all, and they know how to ratchet up their defense at a level that just imposes their will on a basketball game.”

If the Pacers can learn a lesson from Game 7, maybe the Heat can too. When they play that level of defense, it doesn’t matter much if the shots don’t go in.

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Posted in 2013 Conference Finals: Pacers-Heat, 2013 NBA Playoffs / Comments (90) /

Report: Kobe Aiming For An Opening Day Return, Will Recruit Dwight Howard

June 3, 2013  ·  11:38PM





HANG TIME HEADQUARTERS – While the Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers and San Antonio Spurs occupy the minds of most NBA fans right now as the conference finals end and we get ready for The Finals, Kobe Bryant is quietly plotting his comeback in Los Angeles.

The Lakers’ superstar is deep into the rehabilitation process from season-ending Achilles surgery and has set his sights on an earlier than expected return to action, telling Dave McMenamin of the ESPNLosAngeles.com in an exclusive Monday interview that he’s hoping to return for the Lakers’ 2013-14 season opener:

“I hope so,” Bryant said . “That’s the challenge. With the tendon, there’s really only but so much you can do. There’s a certain amount of time that they deem necessary for the tendon to heal where you don’t overstretch it and now you never get that spring back.

“So, you just have to be patient, let the tendon heal and then when that moment comes when they say, ‘OK, we can take off the regulator so to speak and now it’s on you to train as hard as you can to get back to where you want to be,’ that’s going to be a good day.”

In addition to plotting his own return, Bryant plans on being an active recruiter for the Lakers’ biggest free-agent target, center Dwight Howard. Howard is sure to be entertaining suitors from coast to coast July 1 when free agency kicks off. Bryant and Howard got off to a rocky start as teammates this season but appear to have grown closer throughout the tumultuous ride.

Bryant said he’ll step in when needed and make sure to impress upon Howard the importance of the big man being a part of the master plan in Los Angeles:

“For me, you kind of let him do his due diligence and then move in and talk to him and figure out if this is a place he wants to be,” Bryant said. “We all want him here. But then that’s when the selling begins [after Howard is courted by other teams]. You don’t start the selling process right before he goes and does all this stuff. You want to get the last word. You want to have the final word and the closing argument.

“I’ll give him a little opening statement, but then I have to make sure I have the final word.”

That has to be music to the ears of Lakers fans. Having the man who has served as the face of the franchise for much of the past decade and a half work this hard to make sure Howard serves as his eventual franchise successor speaks volumes about where Bryant is in his career.

With the Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, Atlanta Hawks, Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers are  all reportedly preparing recruiting pitches for Howard (who, along with Chris Paul and Josh Smith, are the headliners in the free-agent class), the Lakers have to be prepared with a pitch of their own. The more input and influence from Bryant it seems, the better.

Only time will tell if it works out for Bryant on both fronts. We’d be foolish to doubt his resolve as he attempts to come back earlier than expected from his injury. In fact, convincing Howard to stick with the Lakers might be the more difficult of the two tasks.

Howard has managed to avoid doing any interviews since the Lakers were swept in the first round of the playoffs by the Spurs, so anyone assuming what he might do is going off of sourced information and little else.


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Posted in HT News / Comments (187) /

The Best Game 7s In Conference Finals History

June 3, 2013  ·  10:55AM

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MIAMI – Game 7. It’s 48 minutes for everything.

This isn’t The Finals, but it’s the next best thing. The winner gets the opportunity to play for a championship against the San Antonio Spurs. And with how evenly played the Eastern Conference finals have been, it’s only appropriate that the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers play one game to decide who gets that opportunity.

This will be the 113th Game 7 in NBA history and the 33rd Game 7 in the conference finals (or division finals, as they were called before 1971). Of the 33, it’s the third straight that will be played on the shores of Biscayne Bay.

A year ago, the Heat beat the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals. In 2005, the Detroit Pistons came to Miami and knocked off the Shaq-and-Wade duo in their first year together. That was one of only eight wins by the road team in the 32 conference finals Game 7s.

Here’s some more numbers regarding the history of Game 7 in the conference finals…

  • 15 of the 32 winners, including four of the last six, went on to win The Finals.
  • 14 of the 32 Game 7s were won by the team that had won Game 6.
  • While the Heat are 1-1 in conference finals Game 7s, the Pacers are 0-3, losing to the Knicks in 1994, the Magic in 1995 and the Bulls in 1998, all on the road.
  • Only twice in NBA history have both conference finals gone to seven games. In 1963, the Celtics and Lakers each won in seven, and in 1979, the Bullets and Sonics each won in seven.
  • 17 of the 32 games have been decided by six points or less.

Yes, there have been some classic Game 7s in conference finals history. Here’s a rundown of the best (Home team in CAPS)…

June 6, 2005 – Detroit 88, MIAMI 82
The Pistons won their third championship in 2004 and the Heat won their first in 2006. In between, they played a tightly contested Game 7 in the Eastern Conference finals.

The Heat led by six with less than seven minutes to go, but the Pistons went on a timely, 8-0 run, highlighted by a Ben Wallace dunk on Rasual Butler. Rasheed Wallace put the Pistons ahead for good with a pair of free throws with 1:26 left and then came up with a big tip-in on the Pistons’ next possession. Dwyane Wade went scoreless in the fourth quarter, missing all six of his shots and committing two of the Heat’s six turnovers.

Detroit went on to lose to the Spurs in seven games..

June 2, 2002 – L.A. Lakers 112, SACRAMENTO 106 (OT)
This one was the only overtime Game 7 in conference finals history and it wrapped up one of the craziest playoff series in recent memory, in which each of the last four games came down to the final five seconds of regulation.

The Lakers won Game 4 on Robert Horry‘s buzzer-beating three. The Kings won Game 5 on a jumper from Mike Bibby. Game 6 was the controversial night when the Lakers attempted 27 free throws in the fourth quarter and survived when Bibby missed a three with five seconds left.

Bibby tied Game 7 with a pair of free throws with eight seconds on the clock in the fourth quarter, and he gave the Kings a two-point lead with a jumper with 2:17 to go in overtime. But Sacramento went scoreless on its final six possessions and the Lakers won the game at the line. The Kings themselves made just 16 of their 30 free throws, while also shooting a brutal 2-for-20 from 3-point range.

Not only was this the only overtime Game 7 in the conference finals, but it’s the one where you can most clearly say that the winner determined the NBA champion. The Lakers went on to sweep the New Jersey Nets in The Finals.

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‘Not 2, Not 3′ Goes From Boast To Worry

June 3, 2013  ·  7:08AM

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MIAMI – Nothing seems to have much staying power anymore. A season of your favorite TV show might run 13 episodes. Tech gadgets need to re-generate every few months or somebody’s stock price plummets. What was the next big thing tomorrow and a huge deal today morphs into old news even before yesterday arrives.

If that’s the backdrop against which we’re to judge the Miami Heat’s immediate predicament — a dynasty curtailed, should they lose to the Indiana Pacers in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals Monday night at AmericanAirlines Arena (8:30 ET, TNT) — then maybe the brevity of this whole thing makes sense.

But seen against the expectations the Heat raised when this group came together 35 months ago, measured by the tremors sent through the league when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh all signed as free agents with Miami, a shelf life this potentially short seems startling. Way premature, too, given the smoke and mirrors, the pomp and circumstance that heralded the Big 3′s arrival and James then famously promising multiple championships with his ‘not one, not two, not three …’ line.

After Game 5, on the same night that James talked about his decision to relocate to south Florida — “That’s what I came here for, to be able to compete for a championship each and every year” — he also was candid about the limited help he was getting vs. the Pacers and the need to reach “back to my Cleveland days” in meeting the must-win challenge.

After the Heat’s 91-77 loss in Game 6, the issues were obvious, the criticism fully revved. On TNT, Reggie Miller called them the “Miami Cavaliers.” Steve Kerr said James was getting “zero help.” And Kenny Smith observed that Bosh and Wade were physically and athletically “outmatched.”

These were the supreme talents who were going to bully the rest of the NBA for years to come? The legends-in-making who would chase down Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and other giants for claims on all-time greatness?

At the moment, Wade looks old, Bosh looks overpriced and James, well, he looks lonely. In his most recent public exposure, he sat alone on the postgame podium in Indianapolis after the Game 6 loss, a long way from the lasers-and-anthems of his Miami introduction in July 2010.

“I mean, we can state the obvious: they’re both struggling,” James said, moments after reminding everyone that he believes in his teammates.

Belief comes harder when Wade, his bruised right knee showing no discernible improvement over two months, lingers on the perimeter and shows no explosiveness and lift. And when Bosh, having turned an ankle in the series, looks awkward or absent as a defender and rebounder.

Three seasons ago, in the first season of their grand experiment, the challenge was sorting out their egos and oversized games into a collaboration of trust. Last season, they all figured it out on their way to the championship. This season, the Heat seemed more formidable, its 27-game winning streak as a bit of history and prelude to what, still, they hope is a repeat title. (more…)

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Hill Must Play Big For Pacers To Advance

June 2, 2013  ·  4:23PM




HANG TIME HEADQUARTERS – George Hill took over as the starting point guard before last season’s playoffs. Now he might be the Indiana Pacers’ most important player when they try to oust the defending champion Miami Heat and punch their own ticket to the NBA Finals on Monday night.

Game 7 (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT) should be a doozy in Miami. In this unpredictable Eastern Conference Finals that features LeBron James and his struggling sidekicks Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh for the Heat, an emerging superstar in Paul George and a dominant and unnecessarily verbose center in Roy Hibbert, the quiet, 6-foot-2 Hill stands as the ultimate X-factor.

In three Pacers wins, Hill has averaged 17.7 ppg. In three losses, he’s averaged 8.3, including five points in Game 1 and a single point in the Game 5 loss. In do-or-die Game 6, Hill came through with 16 points and six assists as the Pacers opened a big lead, lost it and then took charge again. Hill played all but 42 seconds of the second half, delivering nine points and four assists with just two turnovers. At the other end, the long-armed Hill helped to hold Miami to 37 second-half points on 34.5 percent shooting.

“To tell you the truth, I’m not really worried about George,” Hibbert said following Indiana’s 91-77 win in Game 6. “He had an off-night [in Game 5]. “He’s a true veteran. He plays beyond his years. He learned through coach [Gregg] Popovich in a great system. He bounces back, he takes pride in himself in offense and defense and he plays both ends of the floor. He recognizes that.”

Hill’s also been getting a steady dose of advice throughout the series from former San Antonio teammate, Spurs point guard Tony Parker, on how to beat the Heat.

Even though he wasn’t scoring in Game 5, his edgy defense still helped the Pacers to a 44-40 halftime lead while also knowing Indiana was wasting a valuable opportunity to widen the the gap on the scoreboard. Two Hibbert free throws put the Pacers ahead 50-49 with 7:14 to go in the third. Then Hill picked up consecutive fouls in the span of nine seconds and headed to the bench with four personals.

Immediately Miami took off, ending the quarter on a 21-6 run.

“He’s an underrated — probably the most underrated point‑guard defender in the game,” Pacers coach Frank Vogel said. “So when he’s out, or not right, that’s where we suffer the most, is on the defensive end.”

In a series where points are increasingly at a premium, the Pacers know what they’re going to get from their formidable frontline of Hibbert and West, who was tremendous in Game 6 despite being ill with a 100-degree-plus fever before tip.

But they can’t always count on Hill being an aggressive playmaker and getting into the paint. What they need in Game 7 is for the erratic stuff from Hill, as well as starting shooting guard Lance Stephenson, to come to an end on the Heat’s home floor where the two have struggled the most. The third-year Stephenson, a bench-warmer in these two teams’ second-round series a year ago and best remembered for the self-chokehold he applied to mock James, is just 3-for-11 from the floor in the last two games for eight points.

In Game 4, he went 9-for-15 for 20 points. In the Game 3 loss, he was 2-for-10.

In Game 5, reserve forward Tyler Hansbrough had three points. Until late in the game he had outscored Hill and Stephenson combined. It’s been feast or famine for the Pacers’ starting backcourt, and it’s hard to see a Finals berth coming against a determined James on his home floor if Hill and Stephenson shrink under pressure.

“Lance is a young player; plays better at home,” Vogel said. “He has to find a way to bring that magic while we’re on the road. George has been pretty consistent throughout the season. … When he’s aggressive with the basketball, trying to live in the paint, making the extra pass, with his ability to make shots, he just gives us a tremendous lift on the offensive end.”

One the Pacers figure unable to live without in Game 7.

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