Posts Tagged ‘Derrick Coleman’

Analytics Art: Breaking down Towns’ rookie season in historic terms

By Ben Leibowitz, Special to NBA.com

The Minnesota Timberwolves haven’t made the playoffs since 2004 — a 12-season postseason drought that’s the longest active streak in the NBA. And yet, they’re one of the league’s most intriguing young teams.

They aren’t intriguing because of their 29-win campaign in 2015-16. And the intrigue isn’t due to slashing scorer Andrew Wiggins, nor because Tom Thibodeau was recently hired as the Wolves’ next coach and president of basketball operations. The key source of excitement in Minnesota lies in Kia Rookie of the Year winner Karl-Anthony Towns.

In a landscape where NBA bigs tend to adapt gradually to the pros — in order to put on weight, develop and hone their post moves, etc. — Towns hit the ground running. He started all 82 games as a 20-year-old, averaging 18.3 points, 10.5 rebounds, two assists and 1.7 blocks, all while shooting 54.2 percent and making 34.1 percent of his 3-pointers.

Despite his lack of experience, Towns was masterfully efficient from the field. His ability to knock down mid-range shots was particularly impressive. He shot 48.2 percent on shots around the free throw line and elbows — nearly 10 percent better than league average from that zone. He shot above 47 percent from each baseline spot as well, which was also superior to the league average.

So, how did Towns compare to his fellow rookies?

By a raw numbers perspective (average points, rebounds and assists), Towns finished comfortably ahead of the pack. Philadelphia 76ers center Jahlil Okafor, who was second by those combined stats, only played 53 games due to injury. Towns’ ability to stuff box scores was illustrated by his massive advantage in double-doubles over his fellow rookies.

Towns’ 51 double-doubles not only lapped the rookie field, but put him third in the league behind All-Stars Andre Drummond (66) and Russell Westbrook (54).

Towns exceeded lofty expectations as a scorer, rebounder, shot blocker and even as a passer. There’s clout to the argument that the youngster should make All-NBA Third Team at center as the workload Towns took on (and the stability he brought to the Timberwolves) put him clearly ahead in the eyes of voters.

All that said, how does Towns’ season compare to other legendary big men who were also ROY winners?

On a per-game basis, Towns’ numbers are closest to Derrick Coleman, the former top pick of the New Jersey Nets. A 6-foot-10, 230-pound lefty out of Syracuse, Coleman was selected one spot ahead of future Hall of Fame point guard Gary Payton in the 1990 NBA Draft.

Towns boasts a bigger frame (two inches taller and approximately 15 pounds heavier) than Coleman and he was a far more efficient rookie scorer than Coleman, too. Aside from those factors, this first-year comparison is rather fitting.

Both averaged around 18 points, 10 rebounds, two assists and more than one block. Coleman also shot about 34 percent from beyond the arc, though he did take 50 fewer 3-pointers as a rookie compared to Towns. Still, it’s fair to say Coleman was far from a post-bound center. He could step out and hit mid-range shots, just as Towns showed he was capable of doing.

If you narrow down the comparisons to stats per 36 minutes, however, a different narrative emerges.

Both David Robinson and Shaquille O’Neal are in a class of their own as dominant rookie big men by this measure, but Towns clearly falls into the second tier — along with Blake Griffin, Chris Webber and Tim Duncan.

Towns notched 20.6 points, 11.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.9 blocks per 36 minutes. Those figures are much more similar to Duncan than they are to Coleman, but Duncan went 0-of-10 on 3-pointers as a rookie and never developed that skill in his career. The latest No. 1 overall pick already has the ability to hit his 3-point tries.

Translation: Towns is going to be ridiculously good.

With the poise he showed as a rookie and the numbers putting him on par with guys like Duncan, Griffin and others, Minnesota has a bonafide star on its hands.

With those qualifying factors, Towns joins only Robinson and Duncan. How’s that for elite company?

This article was originally published on PointAfter, a partner of NBA.com.

Ben Leibowitz is a writer for PointAfter, a sports data aggregation and visualization website that’s part of the Graphiq network. Visit PointAfter to get all the information about NBA Players, NBA Historical Teams and dozens of other topics.

Lottery madness is fool’s gold

By Sekou Smith, NBA.com


VIDEO: NBA Commissioner Adam Silver address the tanking issue and revising the lottery system

HANG TIME HEADQUARTERS — No one dares utter the dirty seven-letter word without fear of retribution, well, no one other than Mark Cuban. The Dallas Mavericks owner has been vocal about the tanking issue and what needs to be done about it.

But if you ask NBA TV research ace Kevin Cottrell, lottery madness is much ado about absolutely nothing:

As the NBA regular season comes to a close you’re possibly one of two fans; either rooting for your favorite team to win out for better playoff positioning, or wanting your favorite stars to “rest” to gain better lottery positioning. Some call losing strategic others call it “tanking.”

Regardless of the preferred jargon, the practice is out of bounds.

Since 1985, the NBA put a system in place to award the NBA’s worst teams with the best chance for top picks in the subsequent draft. The first five years of the “Early Lottery System”, involved a random drawing of an envelope from a hopper. Under this system each non-playoff team had an equal chance to win the first pick. That didn’t directly help bad teams improve, so in 1990 the new weighted lottery system was implemented to give the team with the worst record the best chance of landing the first pick.

Currently the 14 teams that fail to qualify for the post-season are placed into a draft lottery. The team with the worst record has a 25 percent chance of receiving the No. 1 pick. Depending on who’s projected to be drafted first, some may argue it’s worth losing a ton of games for the 25 percent chance of selecting the new face of a franchise. The numbers say it’s closer to being 100 percent wrong.

​Since 2004 (the last 10 lotteries) the team with the worst record won the lottery once in 2004 when the Orlando Magic went 21-61 and used the pick to select a center named Dwight Howard. Not bad. Howard enhanced ticket sales, led the team to a Finals appearance and eventually bolted for greener pastures. Now, the Magic are back in the lottery for a second consecutive season. If that number isn’t startling, dating back to 1985 there have only been four instances were the team with the worst record won the draft lottery.

DRAFT​–TEAM​–#1 Pick
1988–​CLIPPERS​–Danny Manning
1990​–NETS​–Derrick Coleman
2003–​CAVALIERS–​LeBron James
2004–​MAGIC–​Dwight Howard

​Simply put, this league is all about obtaining results. If a team is going to throw a season away in an attempt to get the No. 1 pick, let’s hope the player can return more than jersey sales. Which brings us to a more startling number. Since 1985 there have only been two No. 1 overall picks to win a Championship with their original team; David Robinson (1987) and Tim Duncan (1997).

Call it good fortune but the Spurs organization has been known to draft well regardless if it’s the first overall pick or the first pick in the second round. As for the two worst teams with the best odds to win the lottery, the Milwaukee Bucks (14-63) and Philadelphia 76ers (17-60), have been in a battle for who can lose the most games all season long. Milwaukee has maintained the title despite the Sixers tying a NBA record with 26 consecutive losses.

If the balls bounce their way one should win the coveted No. 1 pick. Milwaukee won the lottery twice in their team history, selecting Glenn Robinson (1994) and Andrew Bogut (2005). As for the Sixers they won the lottery in 1996 which resulted in one of the greatest Sixers in team history, Allen Iverson.

Memo to non-playoff teams and their fans, there’s no art to the science of winning the draft lottery.

Therefore instead of focusing on losing now to get better later, encourage your team to compete throughout an 82-game season. Besides, even if a team fails to win the #1 pick in a lottery doesn’t mean they won’t hit the jackpot, just ask the Oklahoma City Thunder (Kevin Durant, No. 2 Pick in 2007 Draft).


VIDEO: Kevin Durant has had a remarkable season by anyone’s standard

Dialing Up The Draft

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Posted by Sekou Smith

HANG TIME HEADQUARTERS  — Now that the NBA Finals is in the rear view, it’s time to turn our sole focus here at the hideout to generation next.

We’ve already heard the foolish labeling of this draft as “John Wall and a bunch of other guys,” by at least a half-dozen of the so-called experts. That would be the same group of experts that told you last year’s draft was “Blake Griffin and a bunch of other guys.”

All you have to do is go back and check my main man Drew Packham’s T-Mobile Rookie Report and Rankings from the 2009-10 season to find out just how wrong the pundits were about the last draft class. And the truth is, they are wrong on the regular.

That’s why we abandoned the traditional methods of reading the draft a long time ago.

Few people charged with grading these things can do it properly. Plus, there are so many variables involved with these players involved (Are they as hungry as they are talented? Can they survive the grind and themselves in a pressure-filled situation? Can they adapt quickly to the immediate uptick in competition? And do they possess the drive to be great?) that no one’s livelihood should depend on whether or not DeMarcus Cousins is the next Derrick Coleman.

We’ll give them Wall at the top. But this idea that everyone else can be tossed into the bucket of just “other guys?” We just can’t buy that. Can’t do it.

We’ve got our own in-house crew knocking out the draft in ways that make it easy to ignore the external experts. We’ll take their research, reporting and reputations over the “other guys” every time.

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