Posts Tagged ‘Danny Green’

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Playing Games: The Tao Of Pop

June 18, 2013  ·  2:42PM

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It was two weeks ago when the Spurs wrapped up their final practice before the start of The Finals and I had just walked out of their training facility on the northwest side of San Antonio when a shiny Mercedes-Benz pulled up along side of me in the parking lot.

The automatic window slid down on the passenger side and a voice yelled out: “Hey, could you answer a question for me?”

When I bent down to look in, Gregg Popovich pulled off his sunglasses and asked several: “Could you please tell me why I’m driving to the airport right now? Could you tell me why I’m making this trip to Miami? Could you tell me why I should even bother wasting my time with a foregone conclusion?”

When I smiled, he kept on going.

“I don’t know what everybody expects out of us, out of me. I mean, I’ve got Timmy Duncan. He’s 37 and a broken down old man. I’ve got another old man with Manu Ginobili, who’s always falling apart. I’ve got this skinny French kid Tony Parker. And then just a bunch of guys.

“They’ve got LeBron James. He’s the greatest player in the league right now, maybe the greatest of all time. And they’ve got Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. This is lopsided. This is unfair. This is ridiculous.”

So the Spurs have a 3-2 lead and a chance to clinch the fifth NBA championship in franchise history tonight at American Airlines Arena.

This, of course, is why we play the games and don’t settle them on paper or in the minds of the so-called experts. Otherwise, we’d already be joining in the James’ proclamation from the summer of 2010: “Not one, not two, not three…”

Standing in the Texas swelter that afternoon in the parking lot, the daunting image of the defending champions rose like the shimmering heat off the blacktop, the team that had a league-best 66-16 record and won an incredible 27 consecutive games — second-best streak in NBA history — in the regular season.

But that was all before a 21-year-old Kawhi Leonard stoically accepted the challenge of matching up with the best player on the planet and began to do everything he could to keep him from blowing like the top off a volcano dome. He’s making shots inside and outside. He’s rebounding. He’s passing. All while having primary responsibility on the series’ biggest threat.

The Spurs have used a smothering, suffocating, double- and triple-teaming effort to keep the cork in James’ bottle and have held him to 21.6 ppg in The Finals, down from 29 in the Eastern Conference finals and down from 25.6 ppg for the playoffs. He is shooting just 41.2 percent. James has certainly made his presence felt, but not as an unstoppable force who can take over a game singlehandedly. Rave over all those 3-pointers by the Spurs, if you must. It says here that Leonard is the MVP to date, along with the coach who entrusted him.

That was all before the Spurs had for the most part kept Wade from hitting their beach like a tsunami. Before Danny Green became the reincarnation of “Mr. Clutch,” Jerry West. Before Popovich lit a fire under the struggling Ginobili by inserting him into the starting lineup for Game 5. Before Parker hit his iconic “up-off-the-knees” banker to win Game 1. Before Duncan showed just how much professionalism a 37-year-old big man can still deliver. And before the Spurs have been able to match Miami’s small-ball lineup effectively and thereby kept the nuisance effectiveness of Chris Andersen chained to the bench.

That was all before the Spurs have done what they’ve always done — kept their heads down and focused solely on the task at hand, never doubting themselves and never wavering, even in the six years that it’s taken them to get back to The Finals.

They’re too old, too worn out, too overmatched by the high-flying marquee names of the Heat. Until they’re not.

All I can think of is leaning into the window of Popovich’s car, while wondering why the floor in front of the passenger seat is filled with dozens and dozens of empty plastic water bottles.

“Is this an eco-friendly green machine that you bought from Al Gore or are you just a slob?” I asked him.

Pop finally stopped his rant.

“The truth is I’ve been looking for a recycling center for weeks now, but I can’t find one,” he said. “You know what? That’s a good idea. Maybe I’ll just keep driving around town until I find a place to dump all of these bottles instead of going to the airport.

“I mean, really, what’s the point of going to Miami if you’re the San Antonio Spurs? What can happen there?”

He pushed the sunglasses back on his nose, shifted the car into gear, gave a wave and drove away, grinning.

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Posted in 2013 NBA Playoffs, 2013 The Finals, HT News / Comments (7) /

Bosh: Green ‘Won’t Be Open Tonight’

June 18, 2013  ·  12:31PM

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MIAMI – Enough is enough!

After allowing him to set a Finals record with 25 3-pointers (in just five games and on just 38 attempts), the Miami Heat are not going to let Danny Green have his way with them any more.

“He has a knack for shooting, but he won’t be open tonight,” Chris Bosh said after the Heat’s shootaround at AmericanAirlines Arena on Tuesday. “We’ll see how he shoots it when somebody’s always on him.”

Bosh said that the Heat don’t have to make any adjustments to defend Green better in Game 6 (9 p.m. ET, ABC).

“It’s just doing what we do,” Bosh said. “Last game, we didn’t do what we normally do. Guys were open and made shots.

“They move the ball too well to have defensive lapses. So we’re going to have to trust what we do.”

The Heat can be a terrific defensive team when they’re active, focused and everyone’s on the same page. The problem is that the activity, focus and communication comes and goes. They haven’t put two great defensive games together all postseason.

Now, they have no choice but to do just that.

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Posted in 2013 NBA Finals: Spurs-Heat / Comments (161) /

Game 6 Pressure High On Both Sides

June 18, 2013  ·  10:11AM



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HANG TIME HEADQUARTERS – Based strictly on what we’ve seen from these two teams thus far, Game 6 of The Finals should include plenty of drama and a Heat win by a comfortable margin. That would force a must-see Game 7 for the 2012-13 NBA championship, the ultimate stage for deciding a champion.

But it’s like LeBron James said, “the most important game is Game 6. We can’t worry about Game 7.”

The only game to worry about for both sides is Game 6, as the pressure on both sides will be sky-high. The Heat are in desperation mode to keep the series alive for a Game 7 while the Spurs need to avoid Game 7 at all costs.

Down 3-2 w/ final two games at home (since ’85)
Year Team Opponent Result
1985 Boston L.A. Lakers Lost in 6
1988 L.A. Lakers Detroit Won in 7
1993 Phoenix Chicago Lost in 6
1994 Houston New York Won in 7
1998 Utah Chicago Lost in 6
2006 Dallas Miami Lost in 6
2010 L.A. Lakers Boston Won in 7
2011 Miami Dallas Lost in 6

The basics:
Game 6 tips off Tuesday night at 9 ET on ABC.

The Heat have no room for error tonight on their home floor, and the atmosphere at AmericanAirlines Arena should reflect that tension. A team that won a NBA-best 66 games during the regular season (and a whopping 27-straight at one point) has to win the next 48 minutes to keep their season alive. The Big 3 experiment and legacies for all involved are on the line. The Heat are in survival mode, fighting for the right to utilize home-court advantage in a Game 7.

Meanwhile, the Spurs are 14-2 in road close-out games since 2003. And they don’t want any part of a Game 7 in the Heat’s house. The pressure is on for them to end this thing tonight and claim their fifth title in their championship era. The Spurs didn’t need the validation of what they’ve done over the years, but No. 5 puts Tim Duncan, Gregg Popovich and both Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili (neither of whom were around for the first title in 1999) onto the hallowed list of the NBA’s greatest champions.

The narrative:
Did the Indiana Pacers expose weaknesses in the Heat that the Spurs have continued to exploit? It certainly seems that way, especially defensively. The Heat surrendered 113 points and 114 points, respectively, in the two games they lost in San Antonio and allowed the Spurs’ shooters to go wild. They’ve been unable to scramble effectively on the perimeter to cover all of the shooters and couldn’t find their way in transition.

It’s not about role players doing the dirty work either. James and Wade have struggled as much as anyone on the Heat roster on defense. Neither one of them has shown any defensive consistency and both could be spotted jogging down the floor in Game 5 as the Spurs converted fast-break opportunities.

Their activity level, on both ends, in Game 4 was the difference in the Heat’s lone win in San Antonio. They’ll need to bring it again to keep this series going. If the Heat are truly at their best when they’ve been punched in the face and when their backs are against the wall, so to speak, then they should be outstanding tonight. (more…)

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Posted in 2013 NBA Finals: Spurs-Heat / Comments (37) /

Win 2 (Games) Or Fail To Win 2 (Rings)

June 17, 2013  ·  3:21PM

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MIAMI – If the Miami Heat can’t win two in a row, they can’t repeat as championships. It’s that simple.

Games are the building blocks of championships. Sixteen of the former equal one of the latter. There are multiple ways to get there, from a fo’, fo’, fo’, fo’ level of dominance that no team in NBA Finals history ever has quite achieved to a relatively mediocre 16-12 record if all four rounds of best-of-seven competition went the max. No one has done it that way, either.

But Miami has no options left. The team whose regular season was defined, and maybe gilded, by its ability to string together victories better than all but one of its predecessors – the Heat’s 27 straight ranks second only to the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers – now must win Games 6 and 7 of the 2013 Finals this week at AmericanAirlines Arena. Either that or fall short of the legacy it staked out for itself in the summer of 2010 and turn what purportedly was going to rival the Lakers, Celtics and Bulls in a run of rings into something more befitting the Atlanta Braves.

This bizarre, one-step-forward-one-step-back ritual has been going on for more than a month now.

But the wiggle room is gone and the reality is one that necessarily flies in the face of sports’ grandest cliché: As much as the Heat say they want to play one game at a time, they must have two. There’s no getting around that and, probably, no forgetting it either as LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and the rest take the court for Tuesday night. The San Antonio Spurs will have the luxury of playing 48 minutes, but the Heat will be staring and maybe gulping at the prospect of 96.

How did this happen?

The Heat spent much of the three days between Games 4 and 5 talking about the same stuff. Enough is enough. Now is the time for our best road performance of the playoffs. Only enough wasn’t quite enough. And now wasn’t the time after all.

At least Miami is home for whatever remains of the championship series. Eight teams have been in the same pickle since the Finals went to its 2-3-2 format in 1985 – down 3-2 in the series – and three have dug out to win the NBA title: the Lakers in 1988, Houston in 1994 and the Lakers again in 2010.

Like this Heat, those teams faced mighty opposition too (the “Bad Boy” Pistons, the Pat Riley-led Knicks and the original blueprint “Big Three” Celtics). It’s entirely possible that what the Spurs put together Sunday was all about pride and saving face, exiting their arena for the summer on a high note and making some final fond memories of what might have been the last Finals home game for this particular group (Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili).

That will be stirred into Miami fans’ hopes at least a little, because the alternative is downright unnerving. The Heat drip both talent and entitlement in equal doses and – though they talk of the respect they have for San Antonio’s run of excellence over 14 seasons – still come across as if these Finals are all about them.

The Spurs might be breaking it to Miami in the harshest way possible that the series just might be about them instead. They might wind up as equal to or better than the Heat over a span of six or seven games.

“We’re just trying to will it to happen,” Duncan said. “We hope we can respond better next game than we have after wins. That’s the one thing we want to clean up. Every one of us wants this very badly, from the top on down.”

Well, what d’ya know? The Spurs want to play better after winning. The Heat is frantic again after losing. That speaks volumes about Miami’s leadership, maturity and maybe even arrogance.

Any extended playoff series is about adjustments and there have been plenty. Also, the longer a series goes, the more flaws become visible on both sides. If this goes seven, whoever wins will be a three-time loser in the Finals.

Still, San Antonio made 60 percent of its field goals in the most pressurized game it has played this season. It didn’t exploit Miami’s greatest vulnerability, with a mere 36-34 edge in rebounds in game 5. The Spurs even survived 19 turnovers, which is like Superman surviving Kryptonite underwear.

Somehow, through it all, Boris Diaw, the Parisian doughboy, stymied the four-time Most Valuable Player through long stretches of Sunday’s game, a surprise switch-up from usual defender Kawhi Leonard. Parker reacted like a bull reacts to red whenever he saw Heat guard Norris Cole trying to guard him.

And Parker couldn’t help smiling and shaking his head at how neglectful the vaunted Miami defense has been on Danny Green, the unheralded role player who suddenly owns the NBA Finals record for most 3-pointers in a series (25) and is an improbable Finals MVP candidate for the team with the 3-2 lead.

The Heat, once again, was consistent only in inconsistency. Their adversity dials weren’t cranked up enough, this only being Game 5 of the NBA finals.

“There were times where we crawled back into it,” coach Erik Spoelstra said, “but we were not very efficient, did not move the ball the way we needed to, didn’t have the necessary patience in those key times, end of the first, end of the third. … We just weren’t executing with any kind of precision.”

James and Wade, in particular, were kept out of the paint or bothered whenever they entered. Defensively, neither showed the level of effort – which translates into leadership – required for the game’s highest level.

The two spoke afterward about fixing this or that, but whatever they need for Game 6 was there inside for Game 5. It just stayed untapped.

San Antonio tapped in instead.

“You just keep playing,” Popovich said. “We didn’t change defenses or put in a trick play or any of that kind of stuff. At this point it’s about competing. Players playing well and competing.”

The “Big Three” Heat will be facing the fifth and, if they’re lucky, sixth elimination games in their three postseasons together. They have trailed nine times in their 12 playoff series.

The most pertinent predicament to this: in the 2011 Finals, Miami went home down 3-2 to Dallas. Four quarters later, they went home, period.

“We challenge ourselves to see if we’re a better team than we was,” Wade said. “Everything happens for a reason and this is not a bad reason at all to go home for Game 6 on your home floor.”

At no point, however, in their 27-game winning streak did Miami beat the San Antonio Spurs twice in three nights.

Of the Spurs, Wade said: “They understand winning that last game is one of the hardest things you’re going to do.”

Miami can’t even think that way yet, forced to focus now on winning that next game.

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Posted in 2013 NBA Finals: Spurs-Heat / Comments (139) /

Right & Wrong: Ginobili, Green Deliver

June 17, 2013  ·  11:10AM

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SAN ANTONIO – With Manu Ginobili‘s 24 points and 10 assists in the San Antonio Spurs’ Game 5 win Sunday night over the Miami Heat, each member of each team’s Big Three has now had a big moment.

In Game 5, LeBron James (8-for-22 from the floor), Dwyane Wade (10-for-22) and Chris Bosh (7-for-11) didn’t shoot great, but they did combine for 66 points, 16 rebounds and 19 assists. Sounds like a winning formula just as the statistics of the Spurs’  Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and surprise starter Ginobili do: 67 points, 15 rebounds and 16 assists.

With such even production, what was the difference in the Spurs’ 114-104 win in Game 5?

The role players.

San Antonio’s continue to come up big. Danny Green hit six more 3-pointers and scored 24 points. Kawhi Leonard went 6-for-8 from the floor for 16 points, plus eight rebounds and three steals. Boris Diaw used his girth to make James uncomfortable for much of the game.

With Ginobili in the starting lineup, the Spurs’ first five all scored between 16 and 24 points. For Miami, Mike Miller and Mario Chalmers combined for seven points on 2-for-11 shooting.

RIGHT: Spurs coach Gregg Popovich‘s decision to insert the struggling Ginboili into the starting lineup paid tremendous dividends. Playing alongside Parker more often allowed Ginobili to play off the ball more with less defensive attention — and often with Miller on him — and he was aggressive with his drives. He knocked down his first two shots early in the first quarter and dished a couple of assists and confidence that had been so elusive rushed back. Ginobili finished with a season-high 24 points and 10 assists and the Spurs moved to 23-2 this season when Ginobili has at least six assists.

WRONG: One reason Popovich put Ginobili in the starting lineup is because Heat coach Erik Spoelstra changed up his starting lineup for Game 4, going for offense with a smaller lineup that included Mike Miller instead of rugged forward Udonis Haslem. Off the bench, Miller was on fire, canning 9-for-10 shots from the beyond the arc. In two games as a starter, Miller is a combined 0-for-2 from the field (both shots from 3-point range) for zero points in nearly 46 minutes.

RIGHT: A few days ago Danny Green said he’s still waiting for someone to pinch him and wake him up. Yeah, well, the Spurs would like for that person to stay away for at least one more win. Green is on an historic hot streak and after he dropped another six 3-pointers in Game 5 on 10 attempts, he’s 25-for-38 (65.8 percent) from beyond the arc. He surpassed Ray Allen with the most 3-point baskets ever in an NBA Finals — and it’s only Game 5. He’s hit four, five, seven, three and six 3s in the first five games. Remarkable.

WRONG: The Heat’s defense on Green. As Parker said after Game 5, how in the world is Green open, ever, beyond the arc at this point in the series? Now, as Green said, he’s not actually open every time, he’s hitting contested 3s as well. The Spurs move the ball so well that it’s impossible to contain Parker, Ginobili and Duncan and still protect the 3-point arc. If the Heat want to stay alive for a Game 7, they’ll have to figure this out.

RIGHT: Dwyane Wade has really dialed back the clock. He had the huge 32-point, six-rebound, four-assist, six-steal Game 4 and followed it up with 25 points and 10 assists in Game 5.

WRONG: Have the tables turned for the Heat? Should we now be saying Wade can’t do it alone? James had his struggles in Game 5, scoring 25 points on 8-for-22 shooting, which included a ghastly 2-for-11 in the second half and 1-for-5 in the fourth quarter with just one free throw attempt in 10:54.

RIGHT: Another example of Pop pushing the right button at the right time was his use of Boris Diaw in Game 5. Diaw logged nine and 11 minutes, respectively in Games 1 and 2 and didn’t play at all in Game 3 before logging another 11 minutes in Game 4. In Game 5? Diaw played 27 minutes and much of that time was spent putting his weight on James, who finished 8-for-22 from the floor.

WRONG: Another example of the Heat getting nothing out of a role player is Chris “Birdman” Andersen — not that it’s his fault. He’s become a victim of Spoelstra’s small-ball lineup. A significant contributor in the East finals against Indiana, Birdman didn’t miss a shot until Game 7 of that series. He played the first three games of this series until Speolstra inserted Miller into the starting lineup and starting bringing Haslem off the bench. So not only have the Heat gotten no scoring out of Miller, they’ve kept their energy guy on the bench.

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Ginobili Seizes Chance To Start, Then Scorches The Heat In Game 5

June 17, 2013  ·  1:34AM

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SAN ANTONIO – The two-day buildup — a wait Spurs coach Gregg Popovich says was “like death” — certainly seemed a slow, uncomfortable march toward an unexpected funeral. It was the sudden end of the road for beloved family member Manu Ginobili.

Turns out the vibe was all wrong.

Sunday night exploded into a big, fat Argentine wedding. There was dancing and singing and celebrating and chants of “Manu! Manu!” The AT&T Center roared with the atmosphere of a welcomed revival and the deliverance of sweet redemption for Ginobili, the San Antonio Spurs’ Game 5 hero.

Just as LeBron James and especially Dwyane Wade had risen to claim Game 4, as if on cue or following this weird Finals script, Ginobili set the Game 5 tone in his first start in more than a year. And now it’s the Spurs who are on the brink of a fourth title in 10 years and a fifth in 15 with the 114-104 victory for a 3-2 series lead.

And just about 72 hours after James and the Heat seemed to suck the life out of San Antonio in this wildly unpredictable series, may the never-ending referendum on James’ legacy resume with he and the Heat on the ropes.

Just a day earlier, Ginobili had stood behind a podium and a microphone on the same arena floor. The word retirement spilled from his mouth. Even if it was only because of the gathering frustration within him, incapable of articulating, or even understanding, his own demise in this postseason. Maybe it was just dejection that he wasn’t shouldering his load with this long-awaited opportunity at another, possibly the last, championship at stake.

“He did seem dejected,” Tim Duncan said. “He’s a competitor, an extreme competitor. And he wants to play well and he wants to help our team do well. Just like a lot of us, we lose games and we take the blame for it. He’s just the same way and he wanted to play well really badly.”

Popovich, either desperate to jumpstart his longstanding sixth man or countering the Miami Heat’s revamped, smaller starting lineup — Pop claimed both — told the 6-foot-5 Ginobili on Saturday that he’d start. Just weeks from turning 36, he would be in the starting lineup for the first time since Pop shook things up in the elimination Game 6 of the West finals more than a year ago.

The Spurs’ first possession was designed for Tony Parker, but Ginobili took the shot — banging in a 22-footer, a step-back jumper initially ruled a 3-pointer but knocked down to a 2 after a video review. Then came a pass to sizzling Danny Green for an easy layup, and on the next possession he dished to Duncan for a dunk. Then came the first two of his eight free-throw attempts. In the opening two minutes of crucial Game 5, Ginobili had already been as active and as impactful as at any point in the series.

He never stopped scorching Miami with the full Manu Platter: executing one-on-one dribble penetrations, well-timed kick-outs and classic Ginobili awkward finishes around the rim to bury the Heat with a killer double-double. He finished with a season-high 24 points on 8-for-14 shooting and 10 assists in 33 electric minutes. He had had 17 points and nine assists in the last three games combined.

With 2:21 left in the third quarter, and Ginobili on another mini-tear that broke open a 75-74 lead that had been whittled down from 17 in the first half, the chants of “Manu! Manu!” flooded the arena of 18,581. So many wearing his No. 20 jersey, unprepared and unwilling to say goodbye to Ginobili for the last time.

“I needed it,” Ginobili said. “I was having a tough time scoring and I needed to feel like the game was coming to me and I was being able to attack the rim, get to the free-throw line and make a couple of shots. So it felt great when I heard that [the chant]. To feel that I really helped my team to get that 20-point lead, it was a much-needed moment in the series.”

The Spurs never trailed, but the sold-out house seemed to hold its breath as the Heat continued to mount counter-attacks. When it got to be 75-74, it felt like the scales might tip. They did, back to San Antonio. Green, now the all-time leader for 3-pointers in Finals history, hit another big one to make it 78-74.

Ginobili followed with a fabulous baseline drive around Ray Allen for a three-point play, and on the next possession he blew by Norris Cole for a floater to make it 83-74. The next trip down he whipped a pass into the lane for Tiago Splitter, who not only managed to hold onto the pass but also finished with a layup and the run was 10-0.

It would balloon to 19-1 and the crowd roared and Ginobili felt fulfilled and the Spurs empowered to win one more and win it all. When the series shifts back to South Florida on Tuesday night, the Larry O’Brien Trophy will be in the house.

“I needed to feel more important, more of a threat attacking the rim,” Ginobili said. “It was good to see it happen.”

If he can do it again, Sunday’s Game 5 party will have nothing on what’s to come.

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Spurs’ Green Light Snags 3-Point Record

June 17, 2013  ·  1:26AM

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SAN ANTONIO – There was a reaction shot of Miami’s Ray Allen floating around the Internet within minutes of Danny Green‘s fourth 3-point field goal Sunday in Game 5 of the 2013 Finals at the AT&T Center.

Danny Green's Game 5 shot chart

Danny Green’s Game 5 shot chart

It showed Allen — the NBA’s all-time 3-point champion and, until Sunday, the record holder for most “makes” from distance in a Finals series — rubbing his head and grimacing immediately after Green’s 3-pointer in transition put the Spurs up 66-60 at 9:40 of the third quarter.

Allen’s sour reaction had everything to do with Miami’s defense leaving Green unguarded yet again and little or nothing to do with the fact that it was Green’s 23rd 3-pointer of the series, which meant it was Allen’s record of 22 got eclipsed.

But the juxtaposition just added heft to what Green has been doing in this championship series, from its opening tip to San Antonio’s wire-to-wire 114-104 victory in Game 5 for a 3-2 edge.

A second-round draft pick, a scrub on LeBron James‘ last Cleveland team, a fellow who was cut twice by the Spurs before wising up and talking his way into another chance, has been pummeling the NBA’s defending champs at a record pace, right in the grill of the league’s 3-point king. Allen, who ranks No. 1 both in 3-pointers taken and made over his 17-year career, hit 22 of his 42 shots while spotted around the arc in the 2008 Finals for the Boston Celtics. That series lasted six games.

Green already has hit 25 on 38 attempts, and this one’s just five games old. (more…)

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Game 5: The Impact Plays

June 17, 2013  ·  1:16AM

SAN ANTONIO – The most important play in a game isn’t always the one you remember most. Sometimes, it’s subtle and doesn’t even make the highlight reel. Sometimes, something as simple as a change in possession can be more important than a shot that does or doesn’t go in.

The NBA has a way to use analytics to figure out just which plays had the biggest impact on a close game. It’s a “leverage” model that was developed to evaluate and instruct referees by pointing out which calls or no-calls had the biggest impact on a game’s result.

Here’s the idea: At every point of a game, each team has a certain probability of winning. Putting the quality of each team to the side, when the game tips off, the home team has a 60 percent probability of winning and the road team has a 40 percent probability of winning. After the first basket, those numbers haven’t changed much. But if the home team is up 10 with the ball and five minutes to go in the fourth quarter, their win probability (WP) is obviously a lot greater than 60 percent.

So, by calculating win probability both before and after a play occurs, it can be determined just how important that play was. Score, possession and location are the factors. And obviously, plays in the last few minutes of the fourth quarter (or overtime) in a close game are more important than any others.

Using the league’s data model, we’ve determined the three most important plays of Game 5 of The Finals, a 114-104 win for the San Antonio Spurs, which gives them a 3-2 series lead as the series heads back to Miami for Games 6 and 7 (if necessary).

The Heat never led on Sunday, but they got to within three points early in the third quarter and to within one late in the third. Both times, the Spurs answered with a Danny Green 3-pointer, two of Green’s Finals-record 25 threes in the series.

As you might expect, those threes were two of the biggest plays in the game.

3. +7.7 percent – A Green 3 gives the Spurs some breathing room

An 8-0 Miami run, capped by an unconventional 3-point play (+7.6 percent) made it a 75-74 game with three minutes to go in the third quarter.

But on a broken play, Green took a handoff from Boris Diaw, and drained a 3-pointer over both Shane Battier and Dwyane Wade to keep the Heat at bay. That sparked a 12-1 San Antonio run to finish the quarter and the Heat never got a chance to tie or take the lead.

The three changed the Spurs’ WP from 62.1 percent to 69.8 percent.

2. +8.3 percent – James’ steal leads to a Chalmers 3

The Heat were within single digits at the half and James got the third-quarter scoring started with a 3-pointer*. He then poked the ball from behind Green, pushed the ball up the floor, and found Mario Chalmers in the corner. Chalmers had another off night (2-for-10), but made it a one-possession game with a 3.

Before James’ steal, the Heat’s WP was 23.1 percent. The change of possession increased it to 25.7 percent (+2.6) and the three made it 31.4 percent (+5.7).

*James’ shot was originally counted as a two. That’s why the score is off in the video.

1. +9.0 percent – A steal and a record

Chalmers’ 3 was part of an (earlier) 8-0 run for the Heat, cutting the Spurs lead down to three. James then got a hand on Green’s pass, one of three live-ball turnovers in San Antonio’s first five possessions of the third. But Wade dribbled into traffic on the ensuing break and lost the ball. Manu Ginobili picked it up, brought it up the floor, and flipped it back to a trailing Green, who stepped into a three from the top, breaking Ray Allen‘s record of 22 Finals 3-pointers.

Before Wade lost the ball, the Spurs’ WP was 65.4 percent. The change of possession increased it to 68.6 percent (+3.2) and the three made it 74.5 percent (+5.8).

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24-Second Thoughts On Game 5

June 16, 2013  ·  11:26PM

24 – Manu Ginobili making Gregg Popovich look like the genius he is by starting him (much the same way Mike Miller made Erik Spoelstra look like a hoops Einstein by starting his veteran shooter in Game 4). Manu’s energy and effort early on will likely set the tone for the Spurs, who need a spark after getting handled the way they did in Game 4. Bald spot or not, Ginobili remains a champion and will show a champion’s heart in this game. Guaranteed.

23 – Tim Duncan and Chris Bosh are absolutely going at it in the post. You have to wonder how this series might have gone for the Heat if Bosh had played like this in Games 1, 2 and or 3 … he doesn’t have to get the better of Duncan. He needs only make Duncan work overtime (they are trying to front him on every offensive possession) for his offensive touches and put the pressure on him to defend Bosh in a similar manner on the other end of the floor.

22 – The Spurs’ balance is ruling the day early. They open a 10-point lead late in the first quarter bolstered by said balance and some great defensive work … make that a 12-point lead after another fantastic stop and scramble that results in a Kawhi Leonard dunk with 60 seconds to play. Their 29-17 lead was really 5-on-3. The only Heat players to score until the final seconds of the quarter were Bosh, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. Ray Allen scored the Heat’s only other basket

21 – Leonard has been exposed as a no-frills performer, rivaling Duncan for the title of the most boring (in a good way) player in this series. But how anyone can watch this guy work on both ends of the floor and conclude that he’s anything other than a star in the making is beyond me. He’s been spectacular working against LeBron basically the entire series. His 3 from the corner pushes the lead to 32-19 at the end of the first quarter.

20 – Danny Green for 3 … again. Welcome back to The Finals roller coaster folks. This series swings so wildly in one direction or the other on a given night that it’s impossible to get a feel for which team has any real rhythm. I don’t know if that’s a credit to the team that’s hot or an indictment of the team that’s getting torched. Either way, it makes for spectacular viewing. Green has tied Allen’s record for 3-pointers made in The Finals (22), with a shot over Allen, and we’ve got more than six minutes until halftime.

19 – The Spurs have absolutely no one who can cover LeBron in the post consistently, just as the Heat have no one who can cover Duncan in the post consistently. At least no one can single-cover either one of them on a regular basis. If we get another close game it’ll be interesting to see if Popovich or Spoelstra goes there on a final play.

18 – Parker with a sweet drive and finish to wrap up a breakneck first half for both teams. Spurs are shooting a wicked 62 percent in the first half with four of the five starters in double figures already and the fifth (Leonard) has nine. Loving the bounce back on both sides. Pop says it best, “this game is a big boy game.” The fact that both coaches continue to implore their guys to crank up the tempo is perhaps my favorite part of this series. It’s rare that you see teams willing to play to what could be the others strength on purpose. Supreme confidence on both sides. Splendid.

17 – Jay-Z comes up with three minutes of funky stuff, coming July 4, at the end of an instant classic first half that sends Twitter and Facebook into a frenzy.
(more…)

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Posted in 2013 NBA Finals: Spurs-Heat, 2013 NBA Playoffs, 2013 The Finals / Comments (103) /

Can Spurs Crank Up The 3-ball?

June 16, 2013  ·  12:30PM

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SAN ANTONIO – The San Antonio Spurs are a remarkable 34-for-68 from beyond the arc in the last three games. But the number that stands out more is 16. That’s how many 3-point attempts they took in losing Game 4, which equaled the number they made in winning Game 3.

Attempting 16 shots from 3-point range isn’t enough for a team that averaged 21.0 in the regular season and can bury an opponent with an avalanche of 3-balls.

“They have a great defense, you have to give them credit,” Spurs point guard Tony Parker said of the Miami Heat’s ability to close-out on 3-point shooters and take away shots. “We just have to play better.”

Tonight’s Game 5 (8 ET, ABC) is critical for both teams. But it could mean do-or-die for the Spurs, who will have to play Games 6 and, if necessary, 7 on the road. The Spurs know they can squeak out a win if the 3-pointer isn’t falling — they took Game 1 in Miami going 7-for-23 thanks largely to just four turnovers — but they’re far more deadly when the long ball is falling and the home crowd reaches a fever pitch.

A key tonight is how well San Antonio moves the basketball, keeps Miami’s trapping defense scrambling, avoids turnovers and creates those open looks for its 3-point shooters. In the two games San Antonio has won, it has committed 17 total turnovers. In the two losses, the number is 36.

“We need to be efficient just with our execution more than anything,” said Danny Green, who is 19-for-28 (67.9 percent) from beyond the arc in the series. “It would be nice to make shots, but if we execute defensively and offensively, move the ball and continue to run our sets the way we’re supposed to and not turn it over, it will give us a better chance.”

Other items of note:

  • Parker said he has received virtually round-the-clock treatment on his ailing right hamstring. “I feel pretty good,” he said. “Hopefully I can play two halves at the same level.” Parker scored 15 points in the first half of Game 4, but went scoreless in the second half and played just three minutes in the fourth quarter. He described his hamstring as feeling “weak” in the second half.
  • Spurs forward Tiago Splitter has had a forgettable series to this point, averaging 5.8 ppg and an anemic 2.8 rpg in 21.3 mpg. He’s gone from shooting better than 63 percent in both the second round and conference final to 38.1 percent against Miami, an awful percentage for any player, but especially one who spends most of his time around the basket. That’s also where he’s been rejected more than once. There was the LeBron James stopper at the rim in Game 2 and Splitter embarrassingly found himself getting blocked by Dwyane Wade and Shane Battier in Game 4. “Miami’s had a lot to do with that,” Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. “They’ve done a good job on him and he hasn’t been able to finish. He’s done what he always does, but he hasn’t finished the same and it’s because of Miami’s defense.”
  • Heat coach Erik Spoelstra shook up his starting lineup for Game 4 going with shooter Mike Miller over rugged forward Udonis Haslem. Will Popovich follow suit? Splitter’s weak play in Game 4 led to him logging just 14 minutes, his second-lowest mark of the playoffs, and to taking a seat to start the second half. Boris Diaw got the call, but Popovich said Sunday morning that he as of now he plans to stick with his usual starting five. However, he did leave himself some wiggle room: “That could change.”

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