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Have We Seen The Best Of The Nets?

April 5, 2013  ·  11:58AM

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BROOKLYN – The Brooklyn Nets gave one away on Thursday, blowing an early 16-point lead and falling to the very undermanned Chicago Bulls, 92-90. Ultimately, the loss may not mean anything, because the Nets still have a 1 1/2 game lead on the Bulls for fourth place in the Eastern Conference and face Lottery teams, against whom they’re 29-6 this season, in five of their last seven games.

A fourth-place finish in the East would give the Nets home-court advantage in first round, likely against Atlanta or Chicago. A loss in that series would be a disappointment, especially when you consider Brooklyn’s payroll. A win would set them up to lose in four or five games to the Miami Heat.

Other than losing in the first round, there’s no avoiding that fate, which has basically been the path the Nets have been on for the last couple of weeks, since the Knicks and Pacers started playing well again.

I wrote about this yesterday. And maybe this is just who the Nets are. Maybe they’re just a good, but not great, basketball team.

But it’s hard not to wonder if we’ve ever really seen the best of the Nets this season. They currently rank ninth in offensive efficiency and 19th defensively. They could and, really, should be better.

Injuries have been an issue. Deron Williams has missed just three games this season, but was clearly not at his best for the first 50 games, dealing with sore ankles and other various ailments. He’s been much better since the All-Star break, but Joe Johnson has had a couple of different injuries since then. Brook Lopez‘s foot injury in late November is what really knocked the Nets off track after a strong start. And Gerald Wallace, in standard Gerald Wallace fashion, has been banged up too.

The Nets have looked like a great team at times. They have road wins in Boston, Oklahoma City, New York and Indiana. But, other than a 12-2 stretch after P.J. Carlesimo took over for Avery Johnson, success has always been rather fleeting.

Carlesimo made some minor changes, gave Mirza Teletovic a shot in the rotation after the break, and is now giving MarShon Brooks more consistent playing time than he’s had all season. But he has been pretty vanilla with his lineups, and that’s where the Nets may be leaving something on the table.

Of Lopez’s 2,079 minutes on the floor, 1,639 (79 percent) have been played with either Reggie Evans or Kris Humphries at power forward. Neither Evans nor Humphries, of course, spaces the floor very well.

Teletovic is very different from Evans or Humphries, in that he can shoot from beyond five feet. But he has played just 112 minutes at the four next to Lopez.

Andray Blatche has also shot the ball well out to 19 feet or so. But he has played just 86 minutes with Lopez. The Nets’ five best players are arguably Williams, Johnson, Wallace, Blatche and Lopez, a group that has played just 20 minutes together over four games this season.

One of the best lineups the Nets have had this season is a small one. Williams, Keith Bogans, Johnson, Wallace and Lopez have outscored their opponents by 18.3 points per 100 possessions in 107 minutes together. Now, those numbers are skewed somewhat by a couple of late-December games against the Bobcats and Cavs, but that lineup has played just seven minutes together since the All-Star break.

In total, Lopez has played just 242 minutes with someone other than Blatche, Evans, Humphries or Teletovic at power forward. And those minutes have been very good, especially defensively.

Nets efficiency with Brook Lopez on the floor

Power forward MIN OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg +/-
Reggie Evans 1,125 105.6 103.2 +2.4 +69
Kris Humphries 514 106.1 105.1 +1.0 +14
Mirza Teletovic 112 115.8 110.4 +5.3 +19
Andray Blatche 86 104.8 100.3 +4.6 +17
Other (small lineups) 242 106.3 99.2 +7.1 +72
TOTAL 2,079 106.4 103.5 +2.9 +191

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

When asked about his lineups, Carlesimo has said that he goes with matchups. But he has obviously been leaning heavily on Evans of late, even using him on two crucial offensive possessions in the final minute of Thursday’s loss, thinking Evans might get the Nets a second chance with an offensive rebound.

The Nets have actually been better offensively with Evans on the floor (scoring 105.4 points per 100 possessions) than with him off the floor (103.8), but most of those off-floor minutes have come with Humphries, similarly limited offensively, at power forward.

This is why it’s hard to know if we’ve seen the best of the Nets this season. Those 242 minutes of small-ball aren’t a lot to go on. And neither are the 86 minutes Lopez has played with Blatche.

Lopez is Brooklyn’s most important player on both ends of the floor. And in the playoffs, his minutes should surely increase from the 30.7 per game he’s played in the regular season. Does that mean that Blatche will be limited to just 10-12 minutes, or will we actually see the two on the floor together? Is there a matchup (Josh Smith, perhaps) that will allow Carlesimo to play Wallace at the four?

In four games against Atlanta (all under Carlesimo), the Nets have played small a total of seven minutes. So the answer to that last question is probably “no.”

Now, it’s unfair to really condemn the coach for not taking more chances with his rotation. He took over in the middle of the season, with the Nets going through a serious rough patch. More than anything, they just needed to get their best players playing well. And obviously, Lopez and Williams are doing just that.

Still, we have to wonder if this team has reached its potential.

***

John Schuhmann is a staff writer for NBA.com. Send him an e-mail or follow him on twitter.

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Beyond The Heat, East Is Still Wide Open

April 4, 2013  ·  11:45AM

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – The Brooklyn Nets host the Chicago Bulls on Thursday (7 p.m. ET, TNT), a game that will help sort out the 4-8 seeds in the Eastern Conference.

The 4 seed, of course, comes with home-court advantage in the first round. And the 5 seed comes with an easier opponent than the 6, 7 or 8 seeds come with. But with the way the East has shaped up this season, it would be better to finish sixth or seventh than fourth or fifth.

The Miami Heat are head and shoulders above the rest of the Eastern Conference. The Indiana Pacers (2-1 against the Heat) and New York Knicks (3-1) have some confidence in their ability to give the Heat a tough series. But they also have the knowledge, as the 2 and 3 seeds (in an order still to be determined), that they won’t be seeing Miami until the conference finals.

The Nets, Bulls, Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics should prefer the same path. Both the Bulls and Celtics have played Miami tough this season, but both obviously have a greater chance of making the conference finals from the other side of the bracket.

Some of these teams – namely the veteran groups in New York and Boston – are talking championship, but making the conference finals would be a good run for any East team outside of Miami…

  • New York (48-26) has won just a single playoff game (Game 4 against the Heat last year) since 2001 and hasn’t won a series since 2000. They’re the No. 2 seed, but they also have a lot of questions (especially defensively) to answer in regard to their ability to win in the postseason.
  • Indiana (48-27) is missing Danny Granger, but a trip to the conference finals would be a step forward from last year’s loss to the Heat in the conference semis. They still have a relatively young core, led by 22 year old Paul George, that will benefit from five or six weeks of playoff action.
  • Brooklyn (43-31) is making its first trip to the playoffs in six years. Its core of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Gerald Wallace and Brook Lopez is also under contract for three more seasons, so they’re not going anywhere. Like the Knicks, they haven’t played the defense you need to play to make The Finals.
  • Atlanta (42-34) is in a season of transition. Johnson is gone and Lou Williams is done for the season. Cap space is coming, and very little is expected of the Hawks in the meantime.
  • Even if Derrick Rose does somehow suit up some time this month, this has been a lost season for Chicago (40-33), which allowed several key components of the league’s best bench to walk away last summer. And even though Joakim Noah has been more than banged up, Tom Thibodeau‘s bunch has shown a ton of resilience (not that we expected anything less) this season.
  • Like Chicago, Boston (39-36) has shown a remarkable ability to success without All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo. But the Celtics still have a bottom-10 offense and are still a pretty bad road team. Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett (if healthy) will never go down easy, but the bottom line is that this is the seventh-best team in the conference.
  • Milwaukee (36-38) … nevermind.

So yeah, while there’s only one champion, a trip to the conference finals would be a pretty successful run for any of these teams. And here’s the thing: Every one of these teams (except the Bucks) has a legitimate chance to get to the conference finals … as long as they’re on the 2-3-6-7 side of the bracket.

New York, with the 16th best defense in the league, is beatable. In fact, the Bulls have beat the Knicks three times in three tries this season.

Indiana, with the 18th best offense in the league, is beatable. Both Boston and Brooklyn are 2-0 against the Pacers thus far.

East teams 2-8, head-to-head

vs. ATL vs. BOS vs. BKN vs. CHI vs. IND vs. MIL vs. NYK TOTAL
Team W L W L W L W L W L W L W L W L
Atlanta x x 1 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 0 0 2 9 11
Boston 3 1 x x 1 2 2 2 2 0 1 3 1 3 10 11
Brooklyn 2 2 2 1 x x 1 2 2 0 2 2 2 2 11 9
Chicago 2 1 2 2 2 1 x x 1 3 2 2 3 0 12 9
Indiana 2 2 0 2 0 2 3 1 x x 2 2 2 1 9 10
Milwaukee 0 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 x x 0 2 9 12
New York 2 0 3 1 2 2 0 3 1 2 2 0 x x 10 8

You can go through all the matchups in the table above and see who has done what against who. Or you can just focus on the final columns and realize that none of the above teams has done all that great against the rest of the group. Chicago has the best record, but they’re obviously vulnerable with an ailing Noah and a below-average offense.

That’s the thing. The Knicks are the only team of the group that has been above average on both ends of the floor. And they’re the thinnest of hairs (103.08 points allowed per 100 possessions vs. 103.11) better than the league average defensively.

East teams 2-8, efficiency

Team OffRtg Rank DefRtg Rank NetRtg Rank
Atlanta 102.7 17 101.6 10 +1.1 12
Boston 100.8 22 100.1 6 +0.7 14
Brooklyn 104.7 9 103.8 19 +0.9 13
Chicago 100.1 24 100.0 5 +0.1 15
Indiana 102.0 18 95.7 1 +6.3 4
Milwaukee 101.3 20 102.6 13 -1.3 18
New York 108.2 3 103.1 16 +5.2 7

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

So, while Indiana and New York have both played well of late and have clearly established themselves as the best of the second tier of Eastern Conference playoff teams, it wouldn’t exactly be shocking if either failed to make it out of the first round. The wrong matchup just might do the trick.

Brooklyn, meanwhile, has the inside track on the No. 4 seed, with a three-game lead in the loss column over the Hawks and a three-game lead in the win column over the Bulls, who will be shorthanded for tonight’s meeting. The Nets play five of their final eight games at home and five against Lottery teams. They’ve never shown much consistency this season, but they have beat both the Pacers and Knicks at home and on the road.

But the Nets basically got pasted three times by the Heat and wouldn’t stand much of a chance in the conference semifinals if they were to get through the first round. While they would have a decent shot at the conference finals should they finish sixth or seventh in the conference, they’ve probably played too well for their own good.

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Knicks Finding (Again) That Two Point Guards Are Better Than One

March 30, 2013  ·  11:51AM

 

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – After three full months of mediocrity, the New York Knicks have seemingly woken up. They’ve won seven straight games after Friday’s 111-102 victory over the Bobcats, keeping themselves a game in the loss column ahead of the Indiana Pacers for second place in the Eastern Conference.

All seven wins have come without defensive anchor Tyson Chandler, and the one that got the Knicks started on this run – a critical victory in Utah on the second night of a back-to-back – came without Carmelo Anthony.

The streak hasn’t come against the toughest schedule – four of the wins have been over Toronto, Orlando and Charlotte – but it has included a win in Boston and a win over the Grizzlies. And it’s mostly been an offensive run, though the Knicks’ sketchy defense has held three of the seven opponents under a point per possession…

Knicks efficiency

Timeframe W L OffRtg Rank DefRtg Rank NetRtg Rank
Through Dec. 16 18 5 111.1 2 102.3 16 +8.8 3
Dec. 17 – March 17 20 21 104.6 11 103.8 15 +0.8 11
Since March 18 7 0 117.1 1 101.9 8 +15.2 2

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

The Knicks’ resurgence has been keyed by a couple of unlikely contributors. Kenyon Martin wasn’t in the league five weeks ago, but has filled in admirably for Chandler as a 6-foot-9 center. And Pablo Prigioni, a 35-year-old rookie who was signed last summer to be the third-string point guard, has stepped into a role no one could ever have imagined him playing.

Both Martin and Prigioni have started all seven games of the Knicks’ winning streak. But the winning started when Prigioni started, for the first time in his NBA career, alongside Raymond Felton in a two-point-guard lineup.

Two point guards playing at the same time is nothing new for the Knicks, who started Felton and Jason Kidd for 22 of the first 28 games this season, mostly because they didn’t have another shooting guard to start. And as long as both were healthy, Mike Woodson basically started Felton and Kidd together through the end of February.

But Kidd really struggled at the end of that run, shooting a brutal 7-for-52 (13 percent) from 3-point range between Jan. 26 and March 1. So Woodson went with just one starting point guard for a stretch of 10 games. And because he refuses to start J.R. Smith under any circumstances, he had either James White or Chris Copeland in the lineup.

To no one’s surprise, that didn’t work too well, so Woodson decided to go back to the two-point-guard lineup, this time with Kidd coming off the bench and Prigioni, who had been given three DNPs earlier in the month, starting.

So far, so good. The Knicks are now 30-13 in games in which they’ve started two point guards and 15-13 in games in which they’ve started just one. Felton’s 12-game absence in December and January has something to do with that mark, and starting lineups sometimes play no more than 10 minutes together, but the Knicks have proven to be much better with two point guards on the floor, whether they’re starting together or not.

Knicks efficiency

PGs on the floor MIN OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg +/-
Felton + Kidd + Prigioni 17 159.6 70.6 +89.0 +29
Felton + Kidd 1,003 109.6 103.3 +6.3 +106
Kidd + Prigioni 204 107.1 103.8 +3.3 +10
Felton + Prigioni 139 119.4 101.4 +18.0 +47
Two PGs 1,346 110.2 103.2 +7.0 +163
Only Felton 837 108.2 108.0 +0.2 +18
Only Kidd 559 102.9 102.8 +0.1 -20
Only Prigioni 650 105.6 97.9 +7.8 +63
One PG 2,046 105.9 103.4 +2.6 +61

Note: The three-point-guard numbers are obviously a small sample size, and they’re a bit skewed by a crazy 3:27 stretch at the end of a Dec. 21 loss to the Chicago Bulls. Anthony, Chandler and Woodson had all been ejected and the Knicks scored 21 points in the final 3:27 with a lineup of three point guards, Copeland and White, turning a 13-point deficit into a more respectable, four-point loss.

The big difference between two-point-guard lineups and one-point-guard lineups has been on offense. And the key has been turnovers and 3-pointers.

The Knicks lead the league in turnover ratio, coughing the ball up just 13.2 times per 100 possessions. And that number is even lower – 12.9 – when they’ve had two point guards on the floor.

And when they have two point guards on the floor, they shoot and make more 3s.

Knicks 3-point shooting

PGs on the floor 3PM 3PA 3PT% %3PA
Two 324 868 37.3% 37.8%
One 422 1152 36.6% 33.5%

%3PA = Percentage of total FGA from 3-point range

Even though Kidd’s shooting went into the tank in February, the Felton-Kidd combo still has great numbers over the biggest sample size of any of the combinations. And the new Felton-Prigioni combo has only been better, though in just 139 minutes. Kidd, meanwhile, has shot a more respectable 34.4 percent from 3-point range since being benched on March 1.

Amazingly, Prigioni has the best per-possession plus-minus on the team, with the Knicks having outscored their opponents by 9.7 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor. And it’s been on defense where Prigioni has made the biggest impact.

The Argentine is just 6-foot-3 and rather slight, but he’s a real pest on the ball and in the passing lanes (a few examples here, here and here). The Knicks have forced 18.0 turnovers per 100 possessions when he’s been on the floor, a rate which would lead the league by a good margin (the Clippers are No. 1, forcing 17.4).

Woodson alluded to Prigioni’s plus-minus when asked about his newest starter this week.

“He’s a student of the game and the fact that he’s kind of waited and he’s watched and he’s learned,” Woodson said. “He’s played the minutes that I’ve given him. His minutes have always been pretty positive. If it was five minutes, it was five good minutes. And I think the fact that he is very knowledgeable of the game, he has patiently sat and waited and now his minutes have grown a little bit, and he still looks like he belongs.”

The Knicks’ schedule is about to get much tougher, with their next five games against playoff teams, a stretch that includes visits to Miami and Oklahoma City. Chandler’s continued absence (with a bulging disc), meanwhile, isn’t exactly encouraging.

But the Knicks are certainly rediscovering their offensive rhythm at the right time, which has helped them stay comfortably on the right side (the 2-3-6-7 side) of the Eastern Conference playoff bracket. And while they certainly can’t maintain the level of offense they’ve been playing over the last seven games, this run has certainly established both Martin and Prigioni as valuable contributors going forward.

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These Spurs Aren’t The Same

March 22, 2013  ·  10:54AM

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – Last season’s San Antonio Spurs had the best record in the Western Conference at 50-16. This season’s Spurs have the best record in the Western Conference at 52-16. It’s basically the same roster with almost the same exact record.

But it’s not the same team, really. And this Spurs team is better suited to win a championship.

Earlier this month at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Spurs general manager R.C. Buford was asked about how open-minded Spurs coach Gregg Popovich is in regard to analytics. Buford noted how Popovich liked how the numbers often confirmed his basketball beliefs, like the importance of corner 3-pointers. And then Buford talked about how the Spurs dug into the numbers in the offseason to see how they can get better defensively.

“This summer, we looked at our defensive efficiency, which for years had been very high. And last year, we went in the 10-15 range. And I think we were valuing some things that weren’t nearly as important as the data showed us. We learned from the Celtics.

“While they were really high in defensive efficiency, they weren’t very high in defensive rebounding. And that was a big part of where our emphasis was, and it made us question is that really where we should be paying attention. And those were discussions that were then brought to Pop from our coaches and from our analytics team. And some great discussions came from that, that ended up having us reevaluate what was important to us.”

The Spurs ranked 11th defensively, allowing 100.6 points per 100 possessions, last season. But that wasn’t just a single step backward for the their defense. When you compare their defensive efficiency with the league average, they had actually regressed each of the last eight years.

Spurs defense, previous nine seasons

Season DefRtg Rank Lg. Avg. Diff.
2003-04 91.6 1 100.0 -8.5
2004-05 95.8 1 103.1 -7.3
2005-06 96.9 1 103.4 -6.5
2006-07 97.4 2 103.7 -6.3
2007-08 99.5 3 104.7 -5.3
2008-09 102.0 6 105.4 -3.5
2009-10 102.0 9 104.9 -2.9
2010-11 102.8 11 104.5 -1.7
2011-12 100.6 11 101.8 -1.2

DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions

Now, the 2003-04 Spurs were one of the best defensive teams in NBA history, allowing 8.5 points per 100 possessions fewer than the league average. So there was nowhere to go but down. And San Antonio continued to rank in the top three on that end for four more seasons, winning championships in 2005 and 2007.

But continuous regression over the years led them to eventually drop out of the top 10 defensively, which is not where you want to be if you want to contend for a championship. Of the last 22 teams to make The Finals, only one – the 2005-06 Mavs – wasn’t a top 10 defensive team in the regular season. Six of the 22 ranked outside of the top 10 offensively.

The Spurs’ identity changed quite a bit over the years. And while they certainly became more enjoyable to watch as they improved offensively – they ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency last season – they became less qualified to win a championship. So a change was needed to stop their downward defensive trend. (more…)

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Lakers’ Streak in ’72 Tops Heat’s in ’13

March 21, 2013  ·  11:54AM




HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – The Miami Heat may match or surpass the 1971-72 Lakers’ streak of 33 straight wins. But they will never win eight games in the span of 10 days.

Amazingly, that’s how those Lakers began their streak. It started with a back-to-back-to-back set. After a day off (in which they traveled 1,800 miles), they played a back-to-back in Chicago and Philadelphia. And after another day off (in which they traveled 2,500 miles back to L.A.), they played another back-to-back-to-back set.

The schedule got a little easier after that, both in terms of rest and schedule strength. Five of those first eight opponents eventually finished with at least 47 wins.

The Western Conference was as strong then as it is now. Six of the nine teams in the West finished with a winning record. The 49-33 Suns and 47-35 Sonics each missed the postseason. In the East, meanwhile, the 36-46 Hawks got the fourth and final playoff spot.

But the cumulative winning percentage (at the end of the season) of the teams the Lakers beat on their 33-game streak was just .477, not much stronger than the cumulative winning percentage (.472) of the teams the Heat have beaten over the last 24 games.

Boxscore data from the ’71-72 season is limited, so we can’t really determine pace and efficiency for the Lakers’ streak. We can guess that the pace was pretty quick, though, because scoring was so high. In fact, the Lakers’ 33 opponents scored more points per game (107.3) than the Heat have scored themselves during their streak (105.1).

And the Lakers won those 33 games by an average of 16.0 points. So while, their schedule strength wasn’t much tougher than what the Heat are going through, they were much more dominant.

Including Wednesday’s thriller in Cleveland, nine of the Heat’s 24 straight wins have come by six points or less, or in overtime. Only two of the Lakers’ 33 were by six points or less, and a third came in OT. More than half of their wins (17 of the 33) came by 15 points or more. So, in that sense, the Heat’s streak appears to be a little more lucky than what the Lakers did 41 years ago.

L.A.’s streak came to an end with a visit to Milwaukee on Sunday, Jan. 9, 1972, as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar outscored Wilt Chamberlain, 39-15. The Bucks were the second best team in the league that year. The Lakers beat them in L.A. for their 11th straight win in November and eventually beat them 4-2 in the Western Conference finals, on their way to the franchise’s first championship since its 1960 move to Los Angeles (sixth overall).

Here’s a more detailed comparison of the two longest winning streaks in NBA history…

Streak comparison

1971-72 Lakers 2012-13 Heat
Wins 33 24
Avg. PTS 123.3 105.1
Avg. OppPTS 107.3 94.2
Avg. Pt. Diff. 16.0 10.9
By 6 or less or in OT 3 9
By 15 or more 17 7
Cum. opp. W% at time* 0.461 0.476
Cum. opp. W% at end** 0.477 0.472
.500+ opp. at time* 17 11
.500+ opp. at end** 15 12
Home 18 12
Road 15 12
No rest 9 6
Total days 59 46

* Based on opponent record at the time of the game
** Based on opponent record at the end of the ’72-72 season (for LAL) or through Wednesday (for MIA)
No rest = Second night of a back-to-back or third night of a back-to-back-to-back

***

John Schuhmann is a staff writer for NBA.com. Send him an e-mail or follow him on twitter.


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Are The Heat Better, Worse, Or Just Different Than Last Season?

March 13, 2013  ·  12:38PM

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – The question on everyone’s mind these days is whether there will be a new pope before the Miami Heat lose a game.

OK, here’s a more pertinent question: Are the Heat a better team than they were last season?

The answer is yes, but it comes with a small asterisk.

After Tuesday’s win over the Hawks, the Heat are 48-14, on pace for 63 wins and the best winning percentage in franchise history. They’ve outscored their opponents by 9.4 points per 100 possessions, about 2.2 points better than they were last season. The 2011-12 champs never won 19 straight games, either. Their longest winning streak was just nine games.

A look at pace-adjusted numbers shows the ups and downs of the Heat’s three seasons with LeBron James.

Heat pace and efficiency, last three seasons

Season W L Pace Rank OffRtg Rank DefRtg Rank NetRtg Rank
2010-11 58 24 93.2 21 109.3 3 100.7 5 +8.5 1
2011-12 46 20 93.7 15 104.3 6 97.1 4 +7.2 3
2012-13 48 14 93.1 21 110.3 2 100.9 9 +9.4 2

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

The Heat have made a big jump offensively. In fact, though they ranked sixth on that end last season, they’re the second-most improved offensive team in the league, with the Knicks having made a slightly bigger jump.

Miami and Oklahoma City have been taking turns at the top of the offensive rankings for the last few weeks now. While the Thunder do more damage from the free throw line, the Heat shoot better from the field.

Better shooting counts for most of the Heat’s offensive improvement, but a decrease in turnovers has also been key…

Heat offense, last two seasons

Season 2PT% Rank 3PT% Rank OREB% Rank TmTOV% Rank FTA Rate Rank
2011-12 49.6% 4 35.9% 10 26.6% 19 16.1% 22 .307 5
2012-13 53.5% 1 38.7% 3 22.5% 27 14.5% 5 .292 9

OREB% = Percentage of available offensive rebounds obtained
TmTOV% = Turnovers per 100 possessions
FTA Rate = FTA/FGA

James’ turnovers are down, but not as much as those from Mario Chalmers, who went from turning the ball over 15.7 times per 100 possessions last season to just 12.2 this season.

The Heat’s shooting improvement has as much to do with the shots they’re taking as it does about how well they’re shooting them. Now, they’re shooting better this season from every area on the floor, but they’re also taking more of the most efficient shots. (more…)

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Hawks, Lakers Struggle All Season Against Fellow Playoff Teams

March 12, 2013  ·  10:36AM

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – It’s Fan Night on NBA TV, and we’ve got the Hawks and Heat at 7:30 p.m. ET from Miami.

The Heat are looking to extend their win streak to 19 games as they’ve clearly established themselves as the best team in the league. Plus, they’ve have been able to check off every team in the league as a team they’ve beaten this season.

Of their 18 straight wins, nine have come against teams with winning records. And after Sunday’s win over the Pacers, the Heat are now a strong 18-7 against other Eastern Conference playoff teams. The Hawks, meanwhile, are just 6-11 against other East playoff teams, with defense being the biggest issue.

Games played between East playoff teams

Team GP W L Win% OffRtg Rank DefRtg Rank NetRtg Rank
Miami 18 11 7 .611 104.8 1 99.4 5 +5.4 1
Chicago 22 12 10 .545 99.2 6 97.5 1 +1.7 2
New York 18 9 9 .500 103.3 2 102.6 6 +0.8 4
Boston 20 10 10 .500 98.9 7 98.4 3 +0.5 5
Milwaukee 20 10 10 .500 99.3 5 99.3 4 0.0 6
Brooklyn 22 11 11 .500 98.2 8 103.6 7 -5.4 8
Indiana 19 9 10 .474 99.6 4 98.0 2 +1.7 3
Atlanta 17 6 11 .353 100.0 3 104.0 8 -4.0 7
TOTALS 78 78 78   100.3   100.3

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

Getting stops will certainly be an issue on Tuesday, when the Hawks play a team that has scored a ridiculous 113.9 points per 100 possessions over the last 18 games.

In general, games between East playoff teams have been pretty ugly. Offenses have barely averaged a point per possession, and the games have played at a pretty slow pace: 92.2 possessions per team per 48 minutes. The average score of the 78 games has been 95-92.

Games played between the top nine teams in the West have been faster (97.5 possessions per team per 48 minutes) and more efficient. The average score has been 106-101.

The Denver Nuggets have done the best in those games, while the Lakers have struggled, especially defensively…

Games played between top nine teams in West

Team GP W L Win% OffRtg Rank DefRtg Rank NetRtg Rank
Denver 25 18 7 .720 105.9 4 102.6 3 +3.3 3
San Antonio 20 13 7 .650 104.7 6 99.2 1 +5.4 2
L.A. Clippers 24 15 9 .625 107.2 2 105.1 5 +2.1 4
Oklahoma City 23 14 9 .609 110.7 1 102.7 4 +8.0 1
Memphis 19 11 8 .579 99.6 9 102.2 2 -2.6 6
Houston 22 9 13 .409 105.1 5 106.9 7 -1.8 5
Utah 21 7 14 .333 102.2 7 109.2 8 -7.0 9
Golden State 23 7 16 .304 100.7 8 105.8 6 -5.0 8
L.A. Lakers 23 6 17 .261 106.4 3 109.7 9 -3.3 7
TOTALS 100 100 100   104.9   104.9

The Lakers play six more games against the other teams in the West’s top nine. That includes five of their last seven games of the season.

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Will The Knicks Miss Stoudemire?

March 9, 2013  ·  11:15PM

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HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – Was the news of Amar’e Stoudemire‘s latest knee surgery a surprise? It depends on your perspective.

On one hand, Stoudemire looked better over the last two months than he did at any point last season. And he totaled 38 points and 17 rebounds in 60 minutes on Wednesday and Thursday. The news was sudden.

On the other hand, this is Amar’e Stoudemire we’re talking about. And it would probably have been a bigger surprise if he had made it through the rest of the season healthy.

Either way, the Knicks’ rotation just got even thinner now that Stoudemire is set to have surgery on his right knee, which will keep him out of action for the next six weeks. Six weeks from Saturday is the first day of the playoffs, but it would be awfully optimistic to think that he could be ready for the first couple of games of the first round.

In addition to Stoudemire, the Knicks will be without Rasheed Wallace for the rest of the season. So, even if you count Carmelo Anthony (who’s also out with a knee injury) as a power forward, the Knicks’ third big in the rotation is Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin or Kurt Thomas. Take your pick, because none of the three has been effective.

Stoudemire had been pretty strong offensively, averaging 14.2 points in 23.6 minutes on 58 percent shooting. But it’s hard to say that he made a big difference for the Knicks overall.

Stoudemire wasn’t a part of the Knicks’ early-season success and they were 16-13 in his 29 games. His defense wasn’t good and he was just a plus-28 in 682 total minutes.

The Knicks were pretty good with Anthony, Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler on the floor together, but take Chandler out and they were pretty terrible … on both ends of the floor.

Knicks efficiency with Anthony and Stoudemire on floor

Chandler on/off floor MIN OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg +/-
Chandler on 222 115.5 107.6 +7.9 +36
Chandler off 210 98.2 113.7 -15.5 -65
Total 432 107.0 110.6 -3.6 -29

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

So yeah, the Knicks were, once again, outscored by their opponents when Anthony and Stoudemire shared the floor.

Of course, the Knicks have been generally mediocre for the last two months, whether or not Stoudemire was on the floor. He did help them on the interior offensively as their 3-point shooting regressed.

Still, if New York is going to win a playoff series for the first time in 13 years, it has to get better on the defensive end of the floor. And that might be easier to do without Stoudemire, as painful as it is to see guys like Thomas and James White get minutes.

Ultimately, Anthony’s health is a greater concern. The Knicks won a laugher over the Jazz without both Anthony and Stoudemire on Saturday, but that probably said more about Utah than it did about New York.

 

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Eight Questions For The Final Quarter

March 8, 2013  ·  11:12AM

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – Friday marks the 3/4 mark of the 2012-13 season. Teams have played an average of 61 games, with 21 to go. What better time for a Q & A, where the Qs and As come from the same source?

1. Who will be the No. 1 overall seed, with home-court advantage through The Finals?

Miami.

The Heat’s winning streak has to come to an end at some point, but it has already put them even with the Spurs in the loss column. And Miami has the easiest remaining schedule in the league, according to cumulative opponent winning percentage. Their six remaining back-to-backs ultimately make their schedule a little tougher than that of a couple of other teams, but it’s still much easier than that of the Spurs or the Thunder.

2. Who wins the West?

Oklahoma City.

The Spurs have a two-game edge in the loss column, but don’t have Tony Parker for the next four weeks. The Thunder play easier opponents, but the Spurs play 13 of their final 20 games at home and have fewer back-to-backs (3 vs. 6).

OKC’s trump card is two games against the Spurs in the next month. They play Monday in San Antonio and April 4 in Oklahoma City. With Parker out, you’d have to give the Thunder the advantage in both matchups. Oklahoma City also has the advantage in the conference record tiebreaker should they split the final two meetings.

3. Will the Lakers make the playoffs?

Flip a coin again.

L.A. is just two games in the loss column behind the Jazz and seemingly has the momentum to make the playoffs.

L.A. also has the easier remaining schedule. Ten of their final 20 games are against teams over .500 and their remaining opponents have a cumulative winning percentage of just .484, the second-lowest mark in the Western Conference. The Jazz play 12 of their final 21 games against winning teams, and their remaining opponents have a cumulative winning percentage of .537, the third-highest mark in the West.

But Utah has the tiebreaker, having won the season series, 2-1. So the Lakers have to lose three fewer games than the Jazz over the final six weeks. Furthermore, though the Lakers are 10-5 over their last 15 games and the Jazz are 7-8, Utah has actually had a better point differential (NetRtg: +2.1) than L.A. (NetRtg: +0.0) in that time. While the Lakers have won a lot of close games in the last month, the Jazz have lost a lot of close ones. So, the momentum isn’t as strong as it may seem.

Both teams have three back-to-backs remaining, but Utah has one additional game (5 vs. 4) against teams on the second night of a back-to-back.

4. Shouldn’t we include Golden State and Houston in this conversation?

No. The Warriors have lost 10 of their last 15 games, but they still have four fewer losses than the Lakers and play 14 of their final 20 games at home. And they’re struggles have primarily come on the road. They’ve won eight of their last nine at Oracle Arena. They only have three back-to-backs remaining and play five opponents on the second night of a back-to-back. When you factor all that in, the Warriors have the easiest remaining schedule in the West.

Factoring in home/road and back-to-backs, Houston has the second easiest remaining schedule in the West, with 12 of its final 20 games at home. The Rockets also have the ninth best point differential in the league overall and sixth best (along with the No. 1 offense) over the last 15 games. They’re better than their record says they are.

If the Lakers grab a playoff spot, it’s the one that belongs to the Jazz. (more…)

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What’s Behind The Lakers’ Run?

March 5, 2013  ·  12:56PM

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – The Los Angeles Lakers are making a charge. They’ve won 13 of their last 18 games and are now just two games behind the Utah Jazz for the eighth spot in the Western Conference.

But are the Lakers a much better team right now than they were six weeks ago? Not really.

A look at the numbers shows only minimal improvement from the Lakers’ first 42 games.

Lakers efficiency

Games W L OffRtg Rank DefRtg Rank NetRtg Rank
First 42 17 25 105.5 6 103.7 20 +1.7 11
Last 18 13 5 105.4 10 102.9 13 +2.5 11

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

So, the Lakers have been been a hair worse offensively over the last 18 games, and less than a point per 100 possessions better defensively. That’s not much of a difference. The real difference has been how they’ve performed in close games.

When you’re below .500 with a positive point differential, as the Lakers were after 42 games, you’re typically winning big and losing small. And through Jan. 23, the Lakers were 3-7 in games decided by five points or less. Since then, they’re 5-0.

The final margin of a game is kind of arbitrary, though. And if you look at games that were within five points in the last five minutes, the difference between the Lakers’ first 42 games and their last 18 is even bigger.

Lakers games within five points in the last five minutes

Games W L Clutch OffRtg Clutch DefRtg
First 42 5 16 99.3 117.6
Last 18 9 2 123.0 87.9

*Clutch OffRtg & DefRtg = for possessions in the last five minutes with a point differential of five or less

Though the Lakers’ defense hasn’t been that much better overall, it has been down the stretch of close games. And offensively, the shots are going in. In fact, Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Antawn Jamison, Metta World Peace and Earl Clark have combined to shoot 31-for-49 (63 percent) from the field in clutch time since Jan. 25.

Lakers clutch shooting, last 18 games

Player FGM FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3PT% FTM FTA FT%
Kobe Bryant 15 29 51.7% 0 1 .0% 21 22 95.5%
Steve Nash 8 10 80.0% 3 4 75.0% 2 5 40.0%
Antawn Jamison 4 4 100.0% 0 0 0 0
Metta World Peace 2 3 66.7% 1 2 50.0% 2 3 66.7%
Earl Clark 2 3 66.7% 0 1 .0% 2 4 50.0%
Pau Gasol 2 6 33.3% 0 0 2 2 100.0%
Jodie Meeks 1 3 33.3% 1 3 33.3% 0 0
Dwight Howard 0 1 .0% 0 0 1 2 50.0%
Total 34 59 57.6% 5 11 45.5% 30 38 78.9%

You can look at this in two ways. If the glass is half full, you can say that the Lakers were much better than their record when they were 17-25. If it’s half empty, you can say that this 13-5 stretch isn’t as impressive as it may seem. Furthermore, real quality wins have been few and far between. They’re just 3-16 against the eight teams with a winning percentage better than .600.

The last win over one of those teams was a 105-96 victory over the Thunder, who the Lakers visit on TNT at 9:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday. They’re 0-9 on the road against teams above .600 thus far.

Still, overall, the Lakers have been a better team on both ends of the floor than the Jazz, the team they’re trying to catch.

When it comes to future schedule, the Lakers play slightly easier opponents, but the Jazz have one fewer road game (11 vs. 12) and one fewer back-to-back (3 vs. 4).

Stay tuned…

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