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DeRozan needs to be quicker … to pass

By John Schuhmann, NBA.com


VIDEO: Nets-Raptors: Game 2 Preview

TORONTO – DeMar DeRozan is an All-Star who shot 3-for-13 in his first-ever playoff game. So that’s a story.

And for the Toronto Raptors to tie their first-round series with the Brooklyn Nets in Game 2 on Tuesday (7:30 p.m., NBA TV), they will need DeRozan to play better. But that goes beyond more of his shots going in the basket. More important is that DeRozan make better decisions with the ball.

DeRozan took some terrible shots in Saturday’s Game 1. But he also hurt the Raptors’ offense when he wasn’t shooting, because he was too indecisive. And it started with the Raptors’ second possession of the afternoon…

20140420_hard_hedge

Here, Jonas Valanciunas has set a high screen for DeRozan. Kevin Garnett has hedged out high (standard for Nets bigs defending the pick-and-roll) to stop DeRozan while Shaun Livingston is recovering back to his man. Paul Pierce is ready to help on Valanciunas’ roll to the basket, and Joe Johnson has to make sure that Pierce’s man – Amir Johnson – isn’t left alone under the basket. Deron Williams is shading off of Kyle Lowry toward the strong side of the floor.

At this point in the play, there’s an opportunity to find an open shot on the weak side. A quick kick back to Lowry could produce a swing pass to Terrence Ross, a pass to the rolling Valanciunas, or an entry to Johnson, who could seal his man under the basket.

But DeRozan was too slow in giving up the ball, allowing the Nets’ defense to recover and forcing Lowry into a contested, step-back, 21-foot jumper late in the shot clock. Watch the play here.

There were other examples of this, as well as examples of DeRozan trying to go one-on-one against the Nets’ long defenders, like here, here and here.

Cracking the Brooklyn defense won’t be easy. Whenever DeRozan is the primary option on a possession, he will see a lot of black and white jerseys between him and the basket…

20140420_zone

Getting clean looks off of pin-down screens isn’t happening either…

20140420_curl_double

“You can’t stand and hold the ball against them, because they zone in so well,” DeRozan said Sunday. “All five guys are going to focus in on you. Just so be more decisive, be quicker with our screens, everything we do.”

He said that one way to attack a hard hedge is to go right at it.

“Kyle did that a lot. Once they came out so high, he attacked that big, tried to get on that outside leg, tried to get to the middle. If we keep getting to the middle, we’re going to cause havoc for them, because it’s tough to guard us once we get to the middle of the floor.”

DeRozan did attack Andray Blatche on one possession late in the third quarter. He missed on the drive, but it was one of his better shots of the night. He also tried to get past Garnett, drove into a crowd, and committed one of his three turnovers. So he has to pick and choose when he attacks and when he gets rid of the ball.

Raptors coach Dwane Casey pointed to screening and spacing as things his team can do better in Game 2. The “spacing” part could mean more minutes for Patrick Patterson, who can spread the floor and punish the Nets for “zoning up” better than Johnson or Valanciunas. Toronto scored 57 points in Patterson’s 26 minutes in Game 1.

The Raptors could also make their All-Star the third option (like Pierce was for Brooklyn down the stretch) more often. Some of DeRozan’s best looks of Game 1 came when he was on the weak side as Lowry or Greivis Vasquez ran a pick-and-roll. With the Nets’ defense zoning up on the ball-handler, a quick ball reversal gave DeRozan more room to operate. Here and here are two examples where he was able to draw fouls in those situations.

He still saw a second defender on that last play. And DeRozan argued Sunday that attacking from the weak side isn’t that easy either.

“We really don’t catch them in rotations so much,” he said. “We got to get the ball in the middle of the floor.”

Getting the ball in the middle of the floor opens up more passing options, but it’s easier said than done against the Brooklyn defense. Initiating the offense through the high post, like the Raptors did on their first possession of the third quarter, may be a better way to open up some passing lanes.

Ultimately, DeRozan may have to be more of a facilitator than a scorer in this series. But as long as he’s making quicker decisions — either to attack or get rid of the ball — the Raptors should get better looks at the basket.

Numbers preview: Bulls-Wizards

By John Schuhmann, NBA.com


VIDEO: East Playoff Preview: Bulls vs. Wizards

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – The Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat hold the top two seeds, but six Eastern Conference teams had better records after the All-Star break. Two of those teams will meet in the 4-5 series.

The Chicago Bulls have once again overcome the loss of Derrick Rose. But they’ve also been better since trading Luol Deng than they were before. The Washington Wizards have been solid all season, ending a five year playoff drought with a top-10 defense and one of the league’s most improved offenses.

Here are some statistical nuggets regarding the 4 and 5 seeds in the East, as well as the three regular-season games they played against each other.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

Chicago Bulls (48-34)

Pace: 92.7 (28)
OffRtg: 99.7 (28)
DefRtg: 97.8 (2)
NetRtg: +1.9 (12)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Washington: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Bulls notes:

Washington Wizards (44-38)

Pace: 95.5 (19)
OffRtg: 103.3 (18)
DefRtg: 102.4 (10)
NetRtg: +0.9 (15)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Chicago: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Wizards notes:

The matchup

Season series: Wizards won 2-1 (1-1 at Washington)
Pace: 90.8
CHI OffRtg: 102.3 (15th vs. WAS)
WAS OffRtg: 100.6 (8th vs. CHI)

Matchup notes:

Numbers preview: Heat-Bobcats

By John Schuhmann, NBA.com


VIDEO: Playoff Bound: Charlotte Bobcats

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – The Miami Heat begin their quest to three-peat with a series against a franchise that has never won a playoff game.

The Charlotte Bobcats are back in the playoffs thanks to the league’s most improved defense from last season. But they shouldn’t be thought of as a defense- only team, as they’ve also been the league’s most improved offensive team over the course of the last five months.

Here are some statistical nuggets regarding the Nos. 2 and 7 seeds in the Eastern Conference, as well as the four regular-season games they played against each other.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

Miami Heat (54-28)

Pace: 93.3 (27)
OffRtg: 109.0 (2)
DefRtg: 102.9 (11)
NetRtg: +6.1 (4)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Charlotte: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Heat notes:

Charlotte Bobcats (43-39)

Pace: 94.7 (21)
OffRtg: 101.2 (24)
DefRtg: 101.2 (6)
NetRtg: +0.1 (16)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Miami: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Bobcats notes:

The matchup

Season series: Heat won 4-0.
Pace: 90.1
MIA OffRtg: 116.6 (1st vs. CHA)
CHA OffRtg: 101.7 (17th vs. MIA)

Matchup notes:

Numbers preview: Spurs-Mavericks

By John Schuhmann, NBA.com


VIDEO: The Starters preview the Mavericks-Spurs series

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – Spurs-Mavericks is the enjoy-it-while-it-lasts series. For the sixth time in their Hall-of-Fame careers, Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki will face off in the playoffs. They’ve been representing the same teams for 17 and 16 years respectively.

The Spurs have won four of the five previous meetings and are the favorites to advance again this year. San Antonio registered the league’s best record, was the only team to rank in the top six in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and swept the season series, 4-0.

Here are some statistical nuggets regarding the No. 1 and 8 seeds in the Western Conference, as well as the four regular-season games they played against each other.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

San Antonio Spurs (62-20)

Pace: 97.1 (12)
OffRtg: 108.2 (6)
DefRtg: 100.1 (4)
NetRtg: +8.1 (1)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Dallas: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Spurs notes:

Dallas Mavericks (49-33)

Pace: 95.7 (17)
OffRtg: 109.0 (3)
DefRtg: 105.9 (22)
NetRtg: +3.0 (11)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. San Antonio: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Mavericks notes:

The matchup

Season series: Spurs won 4-0
Pace: 97.4
SAS OffRtg: 115.2 (4th vs. DAL)
DAL OffRtg: 103.5 (10th vs. SAS)

Matchup notes:

Numbers preview: Thunder-Grizzlies

By John Schuhmann, NBA.com


VIDEO: Taking a closer look at the Thunder-Grizzlies matchup

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – The Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies both survived injuries that knocked out key players for big chunks of the season. Their reward is facing each other in the first round.

This is a rematch of last year’s conference semifinals, a series won by the Grizzlies in five games. Oklahoma City will have Russell Westbrook this time, but the Grizzlies aren’t the same team either. They’ve made some upgrades on the wings and still have one of the league’s best defenses.

Here are some statistical nuggets regarding the 2 and 7 seeds in the Western Conference, as well as the four regular-season games they played against each other.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

Oklahoma City Thunder (59-23)

Pace: 97.9 (9)
OffRtg: 108.1 (7)
DefRtg: 101.0 (5)
NetRtg: +7.1 (3)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Memphis: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Thunder notes:

  • The only team that has ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency each of the last three seasons.
  • Best second quarter team in the league, outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per 100 possessions.
  • Won 14 of the 31 games they trailed by 10 or more points. That winning percentage of .452 led the league and was more than twice the league average (.214) for situations when teams trailed by at least 10.
  • Kevin Durant grabbed 74.9 percent of his rebounding chances, the highest mark in the league.

Memphis Grizzlies (50-32)

Pace: 92.2 (30)
OffRtg: 103.3 (16)
DefRtg: 102.1 (8)
NetRtg: +1.2 (14)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Oklahoma City: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Grizzlies notes:

The matchup

Season series: Thunder won 3-1 (2-0 at home)
Pace: 94.6
OKC OffRtg: 106.5 (7th vs. MEM)
MEM OffRtg: 98.6 (21st vs. OKC)

Matchup notes:

Numbers preview: Clippers-Warriors

By John Schuhmann, NBA.com


VIDEO: Playoff Push: Los Angeles Clippers

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – No first-round series is more anticipated than the one that pits the Los Angeles Clippers against the Golden State Warriors.

It’s the league’s best offense against the Western Conference’s best defense. It’s Lob City vs. the Splash Brothers, Chris Paul vs. Stephen Curry, and Blake Griffin vs. a team that doesn’t like him very much.

These two teams split four explosive regular-season games, but the Warriors will be without Andrew Bogut to start the series. And that may be the difference.

Here are some statistical nuggets regarding the 3 and 6 seeds in the Western Conference, as well as the four regular-season games they played against each other.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

Los Angeles Clippers (57-25)

Pace: 98.4 (7)
OffRtg: 109.4 (1)
DefRtg: 102.1 (7)
NetRtg: +7.3 (2)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Golden State: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Clippers notes:

Golden State Warriors (51-31)

Pace: 98.5 (6)
OffRtg: 105.3 (12)
DefRtg: 99.9 (3)
NetRtg: +5.4 (6)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. L.A. Clippers: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Warriors notes:

The matchup

Season series: 2-2 (Home team won all four games)
Pace: 100.5
LAC OffRtg: 107.3 (4th vs. GSW)
GSW OffRtg: 107.0 (9th vs. LAC)

Matchup notes:

Numbers preview: Raptors-Nets

By John Schuhmann, NBA.com


VIDEO: 2013-2014 Raptors Top Plays

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – If there’s a first-round series that will help us determine the value of experience in the playoffs, it’s Toronto-Brooklyn.

The Nets have six players who have logged more than twice as many postseason minutes as anyone on the Raptors’ roster. Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Deron Williams and Jason Collins have all been to the conference finals or further.

But that won’t matter if the Nets aren’t able to slow down the Raptors’ top-10 offense, which they struggled to do in four regular-season meetings.

Here are some statistical nuggets regarding the No. 3 and No. 6 seeds in the Eastern Conference, as well as the four games they played against each other.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

Toronto Raptors (48-34)

Pace: 94.4 (23)
OffRtg: 105.8 (9)
DefRtg: 102.4 (9)
NetRtg: +3.5 (9)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Brooklyn: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Raptors notes:

Brooklyn Nets (44-38)

Pace: 93.7 (25)
OffRtg: 104.4 (14)
DefRtg: 104.9 (19)
NetRtg: -0.6 (17)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Toronto: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Nets notes:

The matchup

Season series: 2-2 (1-1 in each location)
Pace: 92.5
TOR OffRtg: 107.0 (10th vs. BKN)
BKN OffRtg: 104.6 (9th vs. TOR)

Matchup notes:

Numbers preview: Rockets-Blazers

By John Schuhmann, NBA.com


VIDEO: Inside Stuff: Court Vision

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – At the midway point of the season, the Portland Trail Blazers were just a game behind the San Antonio Spurs for the top spot in the Western Conference.

The Blazers went 23-18 from then on, winning nine of their last 10 games. But that wasn’t good enough to even secure home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The Houston Rockets went 25-11 to close the season and edge Portland for the 4 seed.

This is a matchup of two of the top five offenses in the league and two franchises that have just one playoff series win in the last 13 years.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

Houston Rockets (54-28)

Pace: 98.8 (5)
OffRtg: 108.6 (4)
DefRtg: 103.1 (12)
NetRtg: +5.5 (5)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Portland: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Rockets notes:

Portland Trail Blazers (54-28)

Pace: 97.5 (10)
OffRtg: 108.3 (5)
DefRtg: 104.7 (16)
NetRtg: +3.5 (8)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Houston: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Blazers notes:

The matchup

Season series: Rockets won 3-1 (2-0 in Houston)
Pace: 100.2
HOU OffRtg: 114.6 (2nd vs. POR)
POR OffRtg: 105.0 (10th vs. HOU)

Matchup notes:

Numbers preview: Pacers-Hawks

By John Schuhmann, NBA.com


VIDEO: Jeff Teague talks about the Hawks clinching a playoff berth

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – The Atlanta Hawks are the only playoff team that finished below .500. The Indiana Pacers basically led the Eastern Conference from start to finish. So there shouldn’t be much intrigue in this 1-8 series.

But the Pacers been rather mediocre over the last two months, struggling on both ends of the floor against good teams. And the Hawks have played Indiana rather well. In fact, no Eastern Conference team has scored more efficiently against the league’s No. 1 defense.

Here are some statistical notes to get you ready for Hawks-Pacers, with links to let you dive in and explore more.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

Indiana Pacers (56-26)

Pace: 94.9 (20)
OffRtg: 101.5 (22)
DefRtg: 96.7 (1)
NetRtg: +4.8 (7)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Atlanta: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Pacers notes:

Atlanta Hawks (38-44)

Pace: 96.9 (13)
OffRtg: 103.4 (15)
DefRtg: 104.1 (14)
NetRtg: -0.7 (18)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Indiana: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Hawks notes:

The matchup

Season series: 2-2 (1-1 at each location)
Pace: 94.1
IND OffRtg: 97.3 (29th vs. ATL)
ATL OffRtg: 104.6 (4th vs. IND)

Matchup notes:

Most Valuable Player by the numbers

By John Schuhmann, NBA.com


VIDEO: The Starters have their say on the LeBron-Durant MVP race

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – Is the Kia NBA Most Valuable Player award for the most outstanding player or the most important player? If it’s the latter, is it more important to turn a playoff team into a championship contender than it is to turn a Lottery team into a playoff team?

Where would the Bobcats be without Al Jefferson? The Raptors without Kyle Lowry? How about the Mavs without Dirk Nowitzki? None of those three guys are in the top 10 of our MVP Ladder as of last Friday.

In reality, MVP voting is typically a combination of three things…

  1. Team success – Each of the last 25 MVPs played for a 1 (20) or 2 (five) seed in their conference. The last MVP not on one of the top two teams in his conference was Michael Jordan in 1988.
  2. Production – Each of those 25 MVPs have averaged at least 36.8 points + rebounds + assists per game, with 20 of the 25 averaging at least 40.
  3. Importance – This can lead to a narrative creeping into the conscience of a voter (see Derrick Rose in 2011), but it’s something that advanced stats can help quantify.

Obviously, in terms of production, Kevin Durant and LeBron James lead the pack. They rank first and second in our PIE statistic. And through Thursday, their teams each rank second in their conference.

All stats are through Wednesday, April 9.

But can we tell which guy has been more important to their team’s success? If you look at team numbers with each on and off the floor, they’re both in the same ball park.

Thunder & Heat NetRtg with Durant and James on and off the floor

On floor Off floor Difference
Player MIN NetRtg MIN NetRtg NetRtg Rank
Kevin Durant 2,961 +8.2 808 +3.6 4.5 67
LeBron James 2,830 +8.1 954 +3.3 4.9 64

NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
Rank = Among 244 players who have logged at least 1,000 minutes with one team

The Thunder have been 8.7 points per 100 possessions better offensively and 4.2 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with Durant on the floor. The Heat have been 8.1 points per 100 possessions better offensively and 3.3 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with James on the floor.

Those numbers are influenced by who Durant and James are playing with and against. Both have All-Star teammates that have missed big chunks of the season. Russell Westbrook has missed 35 games for the Thunder, while Dwyane Wade has missed 27 games for the Heat. Durant (43 percent) and James (41 percent) have each played less than half of their minutes with their costars on the floor.

But Serge Ibaka and Chris Bosh are both really good too. And both have missed just one game all season.

James has played more minutes without either Wade or Bosh than Durant has played without either Westbrook or Ibaka. But the Thunder’s only-Durant minutes have been much more successful than the Heat’s only-James minutes.

Thunder efficiency with Durant on the floor

On floor MIN OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg +/-
Durant + Ibaka + Westbrook 1,128 110.1 103.9 +6.2 +143
Durant + Ibaka, no Westbrook 1,195 107.0 100.7 +6.3 +162
Durant + Westbrook, no Ibaka 146 113.3 98.2 +15.1 +43
Durant, no Ibaka or Westbrook 492 114.7 99.6 +15.1 +153

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions

Heat efficiency with James on the floor

On floor MIN OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg +/-
James + Bosh + Wade 1,022 109.5 101.4 +8.1 +156
James + Bosh, no Wade 1,113 115.4 101.6 +13.8 +270
James + Wade, no Bosh 127 107.8 107.8 -0.0 +2
James, no Bosh or Wade 568 109.0 109.9 -1.0 -18

James and Bosh have been a better tandem, but Durant has been, by far, the better solo act. Those 568 minutes are just 20 percent of James’ total playing time, but the numbers make it clear that Bosh has been a critical component to the Heat’s defense. His presence on the floor has been more important for the Heat than Ibaka’s has been for the Thunder.

These guys are never playing by themselves, of course. Beyond each team’s big three, the Thunder have gotten more consistent production from their role players. Nick Collison has the best on-off-court differential of OKC regulars.

But Collison has played less than 1,300 minutes and Durant’s on-court numbers appear to have been less influenced by the other stars on his team. The Thunder have the better record overall (57-21 vs. 53-25) and the better record when star No. 2 is out (35-10 vs. 27-10).

If James is going to be the fourth player to win five or more MVP awards, it probably won’t happen this year.