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Film Study: Spurs Dare James To Shoot, And He Does It Poorly

June 12, 2013  ·  11:52AM

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SAN ANTONIO – Game 3 of The Finals was kind of crazy. The San Antonio Spurs hit 16 3-pointers and blew out the Miami Heat without much production from their best offensive player. Tony Parker scored just six points on 2-for-5 shooting.

But Game 3 was also the continuation of a disturbing trend for the world’s best player. LeBron James shot a brutal 2-for-14 from outside the paint on Tuesday and is now 39-for-164 (23.8 percent) from outside the paint in 18 career Finals games.

In the 2007 Finals, James and his Cleveland Cavaliers were outmatched by the more experienced and talented Spurs. In the 2011 Finals, the Dallas Mavericks vexed James with their zone and zone-ish defenses. James destroyed the Oklahoma City Thunder in last year’s Finals, but almost entirely from the paint.

Interestingly, James’ best jump-shooting Finals was 2011, when he had one really awful game (eight points on 3-for-11 shooting in Game 4) and averaged just 3.0 points on 7-for-21 shooting over six fourth quarters.

In his other three Finals series, James’ jump-shooting ability has fallen off a cliff. And this isn’t a regular season vs. playoffs thing. It’s simply a Finals phenomenon.

James’ Finals shooting from outside the paint

Season Reg. season First 3 rds FGM FGA FG%
2006-07 33.9% 34.1% 8 47 17.0%
2010-11 40.3% 37.1% 17 49 34.7%
2011-12 40.8% 34.9% 7 38 18.4%
2012-13 42.2% 37.8% 7 30 23.3%
Career 36.5% 35.0% 39 164 23.8%

These numbers are from only four games in ’07, six in ’11, five in ’12, and three this year. Still, they’re fascinating and provide fodder for those who still doubt James’ ability to perform on basketball’s biggest stage.

You have to wonder if the fatigue of long playoff runs is a factor. But in three of his four Finals years, James has shot better from outside the paint in the conference finals – where he’s always faced the best defense of his three Eastern Conference opponents – than in the first two rounds.

He shot 32-for-79 (41 percent) from outside the paint against the Pacers’ No. 1 defense in this year’s conference finals after shooting just 19-for-56 (34 percent) in nine games against the Bucks and Bulls.

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Maybe it’s fatigue. Maybe it’s something mental. Maybe it’s just a fluke.

Whatever the problem is, James has rewarded the Spurs for the way they’re defending him. Basically, they’re not defending him on the perimeter, inviting him to shoot jumpers.

Here are James’ nine mid-range shots (from between the paint and the 3-point line) from Game 3. He was 1-for-9.


On a second-quarter post-up (the second play in the above clip), Danny Green makes James catch the ball about 15 feet from the basket. And then he gives him plenty of space to shoot a face-up jumper …

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At the end of the second quarter, Green goes under a Norris Cole screen that is set just above the foul line, basically inviting James to shoot from anywhere beyond 12 feet. And his disregard for James’ ability to knock down a pull-up jumper allows Gary Neal to stay at home on Mike Miller in the corner …

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When James tried to get to the basket is when the Spurs brought help, lots of it.

Here, Green is again defending James on a post-up. And once James puts the ball on the floor, he gets triple-teamed …


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The next example isn’t a straight post-up, but James backs Green down and once he gets to the block, the Spurs’ swarm arrives, forcing a turnover…


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Here’s a pick-and-roll example, where Green and Tiago Splitter are in position to help Kawhi Leonard as James comes off a Chris Bosh screen…


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James was 5-for-7 in the paint on Tuesday, but three of the five buckets came in transition, and a fourth came off a drive-and-dish by Norris Cole. So only once did James get a basket in the paint via one of his own drives or post-ups. It was a post-up jump-hook over Leonard late in the first quarter.

Dwyane Wade, who is 10-for-39 (26 percent) from outside the paint over his last seven games, is getting the same go-ahead-and-shoot-it treatment as James …

20130611_wade_space

At this point, the only guys the Spurs care to guard on the perimeter are Miller and Ray Allen, who are a combined 16-for-20 from outside the paint in the series. And the rest of the Heat — 34-for-117 (29 percent) from outside the paint — aren’t giving them any reason to make an adjustment.

The Heat certainly have defensive issues as well, but if those numbers don’t start to change in Game 4, the champs don’t stand much of repeating.

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Posted in 2013 NBA Finals: Spurs-Heat, Film Study, NBA.com/Stats / Comments (93) /

Film Study: Birdman’s Smart Defense Puts Spurs’ Parker In A Game 2 Cage

June 10, 2013  ·  12:25PM

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MIAMI – Even before the Miami Heat went on a 33-5 run spanning the third and fourth quarters of Game 2 on Sunday, they were enjoying a much more efficient game than they played three nights earlier. Game 2 was played at a glacial pace, keeping the score looking more like a game played in the mid-90s than one played in the mid-80s. But it was a better offensive game than it may have seemed.

Miami’s 50 first-half points were scored on just 39 possessions. And before the 33-5 run started, they had scored 61 points on 54 trips down the floor, an efficiency of 1.13 points per possession, up from 1.02 in Game 1. And this was with LeBron James shooting 2-for-12 at that point.

Other Heat-ers were shooting 23-for-44. They were keeping their turnovers down and giving themselves second chances on the glass. Though the Spurs had already committed more than twice as many turnovers as they had in Game 1 and Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker were all having an off night, San Antonio had a one-point lead.

That’s when the Heat locked down, allowing the Spurs to score just five points over their next 15 possessions, a span that included six turnovers. The stops turned into points on the other end for Miami, and by the time that 15-possession stretch was over, the Heat had a 27-point lead and the Spurs’ big three was done for the night.

The lineup that did most of the damage for the Heat (plus-17 in seven minutes) was a unit of Mario Chalmers, Ray Allen, Mike Miller, James and Chris Andersen. And while the MVP had the ridiculous block on Tiago Splitter, it was Birdman who played the biggest role defensively.

Defensive priority No. 1 for the Heat has been containing Parker, which Andersen did that during the Heat’s run.

With the Heat up seven in the final minute of the third quarter, Andersen stopped two Parker/Duncan pick-and-rolls and then challenged Parker’s short jumper in the lane. After the Spurs got the rebound, Parker isolated on Chalmers, and Andersen was there to help …


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Duncan would throw the ball away on the ensuing inbounds play.

On the Spurs’ final possession of the quarter, Anderson was there to contain Parker once again …


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Duncan was open for a flash, but James was on the back line ready to rotate. Getting the ball to Duncan at the dotted circle would have required getting the ball over Andersen, who didn’t leave Parker until he had given up the ball.

20130609_andersen

The Spurs’ first possession of the fourth quarter was one the Heat’s best defensive possessions of the game. Andersen was there to snuff out a Ginobili/Splitter side pick-and-roll (easier said than done when Ginobili is going to his left). Then Mike Miller, after helping on the roll, closed out hard on Gary Neal in the corner. When Neal tried to go baseline, Andersen was there to cut him off and the Heat forced another turnover…


Miller’s defense in this series may be just as important as Andersen’s. We know he’s shooting much better than Shane Battier these days, so if he can hold his own defensively, there are really no questions or issues with Erik Spoelstra‘s rotation. Miller is looking a lot more spry than he did a year ago and he’s busting his tail on defense to make himself even more valuable.

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Tony Parker in Game 2

Tony Parker’s Game 2 shot chart

Parker was 4-for-9 in the paint in Game 2, not that far off from his 5-for-9 performance in Game 1.

But he had just one bucket from outside the paint, down from the four he had on Thursday, in part because the Heat’s bigs stepped out on those pick-and-rolls and made him give up the ball.

Turnovers were also a big difference. Parker had five of them, with Chris Bosh forcing two straight early in the first quarter by stepping out on screens.

Interestingly, the Heat scored just nine points off the Spurs’ nine live-ball turnovers. So it’s not like the Spurs’ sloppiness really killed them on the other end of the floor. Miami was just much more efficient in half-court situations and on the secondary break.

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As we saw in the conference finals, the Heat run pick-and-rolls from all angles. They’ll run the standard high pick-and-roll. They’ll set the screen at the elbow (like on Chalmers’ and-one). They’ll run side pick-and-rolls (the Spurs’ bread and butter). They’ll run them toward the baseline. And they’ll run them out of the corner.

One wrinkle we saw on Sunday was the Heat rejecting those screens out of the corner. In fact, here’s a clip of three different Miami ball-handlers — Dwyane Wade, Norris Cole and Chalmers — using a dribble to get their defender’s body moving toward the screen, then crossing over, and taking the open lane on the baseline.

Wade’s drive produces an open three for Chalmers, Cole’s produces an easy tip-in for Andersen, and Chalmers gets a floater for himself…


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Posted in 2013 NBA Finals: Spurs-Heat, Film Study, NBA.com/Stats / Comments (38) /

Going Small Key For OKC & Golden State?

May 9, 2013  ·  11:42AM

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – With each of the four conference semifinals tied at 1-1 (for the first time since this round went to seven games in 1968), it’s a great time to mine the lineup data provided by NBA.com/Stats for trends, anomalies, and whatever information might be useful … or at least interesting.

The eight teams remaining have only played between six and nine games, so we’re not looking at very big sample sizes here. But small sample sizes are all you have to go on in the playoffs. Decisions have to be made on how players or player combinations have played in that series and against that opponent. Even if you include numbers against the opponent in the regular season, that’s at most four additional games of data.

We’ve already seen some of these teams change lineups mid-series. And sometimes, like when the Dallas Mavericks decided to start J.J. Barea in Game 4 of the 2011 Finals, a lineup change can make a big difference.

So, as we take our first day off of the playoffs, here are some notes from 53 games worth of postseason lineup data…

The drop-off in Indiana
The most-used lineup of the playoffs should be no surprise. The Pacers’ starting lineup of George Hill, Lance Stephenson, Paul George, David West and Roy Hibbert have been getting it done on both ends of the floor and were a terrific lineup in the regular season as well. Though Indy ranked 19th defensively overall, this lineup scored at a rate that would have ranked fourth, playing the second-most minutes of any lineup in the league.

It was a plus-48 in the first round and a plus-5 in both Games 1 and 2 of the conference semifinals. The problem, of course, is that the Indiana bench stinks. In 216 minutes, all other Pacers lineups have scored 93.1 points per 100 possessions and allowed 105.8, for a NetRtg of -12.7 in the postseason.

Indy coach Frank Vogel talks often about his emphasis on defending without fouling. That’s key to not only keep the Pacers’ opponents off the line, but also to keep their starters on the floor.

Over their eight playoff games, every Pacer starter has a positive plus-minus and every sub has a negative one. So maybe the Pacers can benefit as much from three days off as the banged up Knicks can, with an ability to use their rested starters for heavy minutes in Game 3 on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, ABC).

Time for OKC to go small?
Setting a minimum of 35 minutes played, the best lineup (offensively, *defensively and overall) of the postseason has been Oklahoma City’s small lineup of Reggie Jackson, Derek Fisher, Kevin Martin, Kevin Durant and Nick Collison. This unit of two point guards, two scoring wings, and a versatile big has outscored its opponents by 46.5 points per 100 possessions and had its best run in Game 6 in Houston, outscoring the Rockets 31-20 in 14 minutes. It was a plus-7 in seven minutes of Game 1 against the bigger Grizzlies, but Scott Brooks didn’t use it at all in Game 2 on Tuesday.

If you remove Nick Collison and just look at the four smalls together, they’ve been just as effective (OffRtg: 130.2, DefRtg: 80.9, NetRtg: +49.3) in a slightly larger sample of 51 minutes (43 against Houston and eight against Memphis).

With Thabo Sefolosha, the Thunder have other small-lineup options. And thus far against the Grizzlies, they’re a plus-13 in 14 minutes playing small. They’re a minus-17 in 82 minutes playing big and their starting lineup (Jackson, Sefolosha, Durant, Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins has shot a brutal 13-for-47 (28 percent) in its 28 minutes together.

That, of course, will be something to keep an eye on as the series heads to Memphis for Saturday’s Game 3 (5 p.m. ET, ESPN).

*The best defensive lineup with a minimum of 35 minutes played was actually the Thunder’s original starting lineup, which allowed the Rockets to score just 73.1 points per 100 possessions in the first two games of the first round. But Russell Westbrook‘s injury puts that lineup out of commission.

Small works in the other West series too
Both Gregg Popovich and Mark Jackson changed their starting lineups for Game 2 in San Antonio on Wednesday, moves that worked out better for the Warriors. Their (small) lineup of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut is a plus-17 in the series (plus-12 in Game 2), the second-best mark of the conference semifinals thus far.

It was a mini lineup of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard and Boris Diaw that pulled off the Spurs’ amazing comeback on Monday, racking up a plus-13 in 10 minutes over the fourth quarter and two overtimes. With Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter healthy, Popovich didn’t use that lineup at all in Game 2.

Supersubs in Chicago
Obviously, Wednesday’s blowout in Miami makes for some funky lineup numbers in that series, but the Bulls do have a lineup – Nate Robinson, Marco Belinelli, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah – that’s a plus-14 over the two games (plus-13 in 16 minutes in Game 1 and plus-1 in three minutes in Game 2). It was a plus-7 in 21 minutes in the first round and was a strong plus-20.3 points per 100 possessions in 129 minutes in the regular season. If Kirk Hinrich and/or Luol Deng return for Game 3 on Friday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN), it will be interesting to see how much time that lineup plays together going forward.

A change of fortune in Miami
The Heat had a killer lineup – Mario Chalmers, Ray Allen, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh – that Erik Spoelstra used rather sparingly (only 112 minutes), but outscored its opponents by 30.3 points per 100 possessions in the regular season. That lineup was a plus-12 in 10 minutes in the first round against Milwaukee, but is a minus-13 in six minutes in the conference semis, having allowed the Bulls to shoot 6-for-9 (3-for-3 from 3-point range) in the closing minutes of Game 1.

Offensive struggles in New York
The best offensive lineup in the regular season (minimum 200 minutes) was the Knicks’ lineup of Raymond Felton, Jason Kidd, J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler, which scored 119.3 points per 100 possessions in 269 minutes together. With Kidd, Smith and Anthony all struggling, that unit has scored just 86.6 points per 100 possessions in 18 playoff minutes, and has been even worse defensively.

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Posted in 2013 Conference Semis: Heat-Bulls, 2013 Conference Semis: Knicks-Pacers, 2013 Conference Semis: Spurs-Warriors, 2013 Conference Semis: Thunder-Grizzlies, 2013 NBA Playoffs, NBA.com/Stats / Comments (17) /

For Celtics, Return Home Doesn’t Necessarily Bring More Offense

April 26, 2013  ·  9:55AM

 

BOSTON – Down 0-2 to the New York Knicks, the Boston Celtics are in a desperate situation. If they don’t win Game 3 on Friday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN), they can start packing for their summer vacations.

The good news is that the Celtics were a much better team at home than they were on the road this season. In terms of winning percentage, only three teams had a bigger home-road discrepancy. And in terms of point differential, only five teams had a bigger discrepancy. One of those five was the Knicks, so that’s more good news.

Biggest home-road discrepancy, NetRtg (point differential per 100 possessions)

Team Home Rank Road Rank Diff. Win% Diff.
Denver +11.7 3 -0.5 10 +12.2 0.463
Charlotte -4.8 29 -16.5 30 +11.7 0.220
Utah +5.1 12 -6.4 20 +11.5 0.415
Washington +3.0 14 -8.5 26 +11.5 0.366
New York +10.5 6 -0.3 9 +10.8 0.195
Boston +5.9 11 -4.6 17 +10.5 0.334

Here’s the bad news: The difference between the home Celtics and the road Celtics has been mostly on the defensive end of the floor, where they were 9.0 points per 100 possessions better at TD Garden than they were elsewhere.

Celtics efficiency, home vs. road

Location OffRtg Rank DefRtg Rank NetRtg Rank
Home 101.9 22 95.9 3 +5.9 11
Road 100.3 18 104.9 14 -4.6 17
Difference +1.5 22 -9.0 2 +10.5 6

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions

Over the course of the season, Boston was an elite defensive team in Boston and a mediocre defensive team outside The Hub.

Why is that bad news? Because the Celtics were pretty darn good defensively in New York, holding a team that scored almost 115 points per 100 possessions over its last 18 regular season games to just 100 per 100 in the first two games of this series. It’s hard to believe they can defend much better than that going forward. The Knicks scored 32 points in the third quarter of Game 2, but the Knicks are going to have their 32-point quarters, no matter who’s defending them.

If the Celtics are going to win at least one of these next two games, they need something close to a 32-point quarter for themselves … or at least something close to a 40-point second half. But playing at home hasn’t given them much of a boost on that end of the floor. They’re really a bad offensive team no matter where they play.

Back to some good news: 82 games of regular season data says that the Knicks aren’t nearly as good defensively as they were in the first two games. They regressed and ranked 16th on that end of the floor this year. And New York’s defense was 4.2 points per 100 possessions worse on the road. In particular, they didn’t force turnovers or defend the 3-point line as well as they did at Madison Square Garden. And those are two areas where the Celtics really struggled in Games 1 and 2.

The Celtics also have some guys who shot better at home. Jason Terry, in particular, seems to like the gym on Causeway St.

Celtics effective field goal percentage, home vs. road

Player Home Road Diff.
Jason Terry 59.4% 45.6% +13.8%
Jeff Green 54.4% 47.7% +6.7%
Brandon Bass 50.3% 46.7% +3.6%
Paul Pierce 51.7% 48.8% +2.8%
Chris Wilcox 71.6% 72.2% -0.6%
Kevin Garnett 48.6% 51.0% -2.4%
Courtney Lee 50.0% 53.4% -3.4%
Jordan Crawford 44.0% 48.9% -4.9%
Avery Bradley 40.0% 48.2% -8.3%

Effective field goal percentage = (FGM + (0.5*3PM)) / FGA

So there is some hope for the Celtics to break through offensively, take care of the ball, make some shots, and score more than 25 points in the second half on Friday.

If they don’t, you can break out the brooms.

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Posted in 2013 NBA Playoffs, NBA.com/Stats / Comments (2) /

The Numbers On The West Playoffs

April 19, 2013  ·  3:19PM

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – The playoffs are here. And to get you ready, we’ve got statistical nuggets for each series, courtesy of NBA.com/Stats.

Western Conference basketball was faster and more efficient than Eastern Conference hoops. We’re sure to see three high-paced series in the first round, because six of the eight West playoff teams ranked in the top 10 in pace, with the only exceptions being the Clippers and Grizzlies, who will face each other.

Pace won’t be the only reason scoring will be higher in the West. Seven of the eight West playoff teams ranked in the top 10 in offensive efficiency.

Pace: Possessions per 48 minutes (League Rank)
OffRtg: Points scored per 100 possessions (League Rank)
DefRtg: Points allowed per 100 possessions (League Rank)
NetRtg: Point differential per 100 possessions (League Rank)
The league averaged 94.4 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes and 103.1 points scored per 100 possessions.

Oklahoma City (1) vs. Houston (8)

Oklahoma City Thunder (60-22)
Pace: 95.9 (10)
OffRtg: 110.2 (2)
DefRtg: 99.2 (4)
NetRtg: +11.0 (1)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Houston: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Houston Rockets (45-37)
Pace: 98.6 (1)
OffRtg: 106.7 (6)
DefRtg: 103.5 (16)
NetRtg: +3.3 (9)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Oklahoma City: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Five notes:

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Posted in 2013 NBA Playoffs, NBA.com/Stats / Comments (8) /

The Numbers On The East Playoffs

April 19, 2013  ·  12:17PM

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – The playoffs are here. And to get you ready, we’ve got statistical nuggets for each series, courtesy of NBA.com/Stats.

Eastern Conference basketball was slower and less efficient than Western Conference hoops. Five of the eight East playoff teams ranked in the bottom eight in pace, while four of the eight ranked in the top seven in defensive efficiency.

Yet, a couple of these series (Knicks-Celtics and Nets-Bulls) can be seen as offense vs. defense.

Pace: Possessions per 48 minutes (League Rank)
OffRtg: Points scored per 100 possessions (League Rank)
DefRtg: Points allowed per 100 possessions (League Rank)
NetRtg: Point differential per 100 possessions (League Rank)
The league averaged 94.4 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes and 103.1 points scored per 100 possessions.

Miami (1) vs. Milwaukee (8)

Miami Heat (66-16)
Pace: 93.0 (23)
OffRtg: 110.3 (1)
DefRtg: 100.5 (7)
NetRtg: +9.9 (2)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Milwaukee: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Milwaukee Bucks (38-44)
Pace: 97.3 (3)
OffRtg: 100.9 (21)
DefRtg: 102.3 (12)
NetRtg: -1.4 (18)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Miami: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Five notes:

New York (2) vs. Boston (7)

New York Knicks (54-28)
Pace: 92.0 (26)
OffRtg: 108.6 (3)
DefRtg: 103.5 (17)
NetRtg: +5.1 (6)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. Boston: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Boston Celtics (41-40)
Pace: 94.0 (17)
OffRtg: 101.1 (20)
DefRtg: 100.4 (6)
NetRtg: +0.7 (14)

Overall: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups
vs. New York: Team stats | Player stats | Lineups

Five notes:

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Posted in 2013 NBA Playoffs, NBA.com/Stats / Comments (17) /

Curry Set To Make 3-Point History

April 17, 2013  ·  11:25AM

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – Three is greater than two.

It’s simple math, and the NBA is realizing it more and more each year.

This season, the league has made and attempted more 3s than it ever has. Both the New York Knicks and Houston Rockets have passed the previous single-season, team highs for 3-point makes and attempts. And now, with one game left in the regular season, Stephen Curry is just two 3-pointers away from setting the all-time record for most 3-pointers made in one season by an individual.

Most 3-pointers, single season

Player Team Season GP 3PM 3PA 3PT% 3PA%
Ray Allen Seattle 2005-06 78 269 653 41.2% 43.5%
Stephen Curry Golden State 2012-13 77 268 589 45.5% 42.9%
Dennis Scott Orlando 1995-96* 82 267 628 42.5% 56.2%
George McCloud Dallas 1995-96* 79 257 678 37.9% 52.9%
Jason Richardson Charlotte 2007-08 82 243 599 40.6% 40.8%
Peja Stojakovic Sacramento 2003-04 81 240 554 43.3% 40.0%
Mookie Blaylock Atlanta 1995-96* 81 231 623 37.1% 55.5%
Peja Stojakovic New Orleans 2007-08 77 231 524 44.1% 51.1%
Ray Allen Milwaukee 2001-02 69 229 528 43.4% 46.0%
Reggie Miller Indiana 1996-97* 81 229 536 42.7% 43.1%

* The 3-point line was shorter (22 feet all around) in 1994-95, 1995-96 & 1996-97
3PA% = Percentage of total shots from 3-point range

Curry put himself in this position after hitting nine 3s in L.A. on Friday and another seven against the Spurs on Monday, the 19th and 20th times he’s hit at least five 3s in a game this season.

In only 12 of his 77 games has Curry hit fewer than two 3s, so the odds are good that he’ll get the two he needs in Portland on Wednesday. The Blazers have the fourth-best 3-point defense in the league, but Curry hit seven treys against them less than three weeks ago.

Curry is the Warriors’ point guard, so most of his 3s have come from above the break. Only 46 of his 268 3s have come from the corners, but Curry has shot the worst from the top of the key. And he’s clearly more comfortable from the right side of the floor…

Stephen Curry's 3-point shot chart

Stephen Curry’s 3-point shot chart

Curry leads the league with 103 unassisted 3-pointers, but 165 (62 percent) of Curry’s 3s have been assisted, by nine different teammates.

Assists on Stephen Curry’s 3-pointers

Player Assists %
Jarrett Jack 62 23%
David Lee 41 15%
Klay Thompson 24 9%
Harrison Barnes 16 6%
Andrew Bogut 10 4%
Carl Landry 5 2%
Festus Ezeli 3 1%
Draymond Green 2 1%
Kent Bazemore 1 0%
Andris Biedrins 1 0%
Unassisted 103 38%

Only 39 percent of his 3s from the top of the key have been assisted, vs. 67 percent from the wings and corners. Combine that with his shooting percentage numbers (worse at the top) and it’s clear that he’s a better shooter off the pass than off the dribble.

The way things are going, we may see somebody top 300 3-pointers in a season sometime soon. And it may be Curry. For now, he’ll have to settle for this place in the NBA record book.

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Posted in NBA.com/Stats / Comments (59) /

Improved D Keeps The Heat Winning

April 12, 2013  ·  12:12PM

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – Since their 27-game winning streak came to an end 16 days ago, the Miami Heat have been taking it kind of easy.

The only Heaters to play all seven games since then are Chris Andersen, Shane Battier, Norris Cole, Rashard Lewis and Mike Miller. Starters Mario Chalmers (3), Dwyane Wade (6), LeBron James (4), Chris Bosh (3) and Udonis Haslem (1) have missed a combined 17 games in the seven-game stretch.

Yet the Heat have gone 6-1 since that loss in Chicago, having no problem clinching the league’s best overall record and home-court advantage throughout the postseason. The schedule hasn’t exactly been harrowing, but they did win in San Antonio without James, Wade or Chalmers and handled likely first-round opponent Milwaukee without Bosh or Wade.

The Heat have maintained their standing as the No. 1 offense in the league, but they’re also playing their best defense of the season.

Since the streak ended, the Heat have been the second-best defense in the league, behind only Memphis. They’ve actually allowed fewer points per 100 possessions over the last seven games (97.9) than they did during the streak (99.0).

It’s obviously a small sample size (against a few bad offensive teams), but it’s a continuation of a positive trend. Miami has also been the third-best defensive team since the All-Star break, and when you compare pre-break numbers to post-break numbers, the Heat have been the most improved defensive team in the league…

Most improved defenses (points allowed per 100 possessions) since All-Star break

Team Pre-break Rank Post-break Rank Diff.
Miami 101.8 11 97.8 3 -4.0
Golden State 103.4 16 100.8 7 -2.6
Houston 104.4 22 102.1 10 -2.3
Denver 102.6 13 100.7 7 -1.9
Oklahoma City 99.7 8 98.2 4 -1.6

Consistency on the defensive end of the floor was an issue as the Heat cruised through the first half of the season. They ranked fourth defensively last season, but were just 11th on that end at the time their streak started. That’s not championship-level defense.

Since mid-December though, the Heat have been trending in the right direction. They’ve basically improved defensively month by month, with a blip in February (a month in which their offense carried them to a 12-1 record).

Comparing pre-break to post-break numbers, the Heat have improved in multiple ways. They’ve been defending the 3-point line better, they’ve been forcing more turnovers, and they’ve been keeping their opponents off the free-throw line…

Heat defense, before and after All-Star break

Time Opp2PT% Rank Opp3PT% Rank DREB% Rank OppTmTOV% Rank OppFTA Rate Rank
Pre-break 47.0% 8 36.0% 19 73.2% 17 16.0% 7 .280 22
Post-break 47.5% 8 33.6% 6 72.1% 28 17.9% 1 .228 2

DREB% = Percentage of available defensive rebounds obtained
OppTmTOV% = Opponent turnovers per 100 possessions
OppFTA Rate = FTA/FGA

The Heat play a very aggressive style of defense, attacking the ball and using their quickness, length and athleticism to recover to the weak side. And when it’s not sharp, opposing teams can take advantage from beyond the arc. Miami struggled to defend the 3-point line early last season as well, but improved as the season went on and allowed their opponents to shoot just 30 percent from downtown in the playoffs.

The numbers are further confirmation of something I wrote about when addressing the Spurs’ improved defense a few weeks ago: Rebounding isn’t all that important. Miami has been the third-worst defensive rebounding team since the break, yet still ranks third overall on that end.

Erik Spoelstra talked about rebounding (finishing defensive possessions) last month…

“Possessions are at such a premium in the playoffs. So we understand that it’s very important. Look, my boss came up with the term ‘no rebounds, no rings.’ That’ll always ring true in my ears, but we have some things that are very important to us, and our identity, and how we play. We have to get to those things, and then obviously finish it off.

“Our guys understand that we have to finish, but we also understand what our identity is. And when we’re getting to things that make us successful, that’ll trump a lot of other things. But we certainly have to finish.”

It takes both great offense and great defense to to win a championship. We never really doubted the Heat’s ability to repeat, but their improved defense over the last couple of months certainly makes it more difficult to pick anyone else to dethrone them.

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Knicks Keep Winning Big, Keep Losing Bigs

April 11, 2013  ·  12:09PM

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NEW YORK – As the New York Knicks extended their winning streak to 13 games on Tuesday, they extended their list of injured big men to six.

Six is the number of big men the Knicks have on their roster, by the way.

Early in the fourth quarter of an easy win over the Washington Wizards, Kenyon Martin went down a sprained left ankle. Martin (who was previously dealing with a sore knee) joined Marcus Camby (foot), Tyson Chandler (neck), Amar’e Stoudemire (knee surgery), Kurt Thomas (foot) and Rasheed Wallace (foot) on the list of (old) injured bigs in New York.

Frank Isola of the Daily News reported Wednesday that the Knicks intend to waive Thomas in order to sign Chris Singleton, who is 6-foot-8.

The only one of the true bigs who could possibly play in Chicago on Thursday (8 p.m. ET, TNT) is Camby. But most likely, Carmelo Anthony will be the starting center against the Bulls, who are still without Joakim Noah.

Now, the Knicks have only played 20 percent of their minutes with two bigs on the floor this season (a contrast to their vanilla-lineup neighbors in Brooklyn), and have been much better offensively when they’ve played small (like with two point guards). So if there’s one team that absorb the loss of a big man or two, it’s this one.

And a little bit of attrition is probably a good thing for New York. Since they traded for Anthony two years ago, they’ve simply been a better team without Stoudemire than they’ve been with him. It’s fair to assume that they’d be better off if Stoudemire didn’t come back this season from his most recent knee injury.

Chandler and Martin are another story. Both are known for their defense, but the Knicks’ one-big offense has been at its best when the one big is one of those two guys.

Knicks efficiency with one big on the floor

On floor MIN OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg +/-
Chandler 1,546 110.2 104.0 +6.2 +172
Martin 347 112.9 101.1 +11.8 +71
Stoudemire 319 101.7 105.9 -4.2 -33
Wallace 204 102.1 94.7 +7.4 +26
Thomas 188 106.8 111.1 -4.4 -19
Camby 140 106.8 92.6 +14.2 +33
Total 2,744 108.6 103.1 +5.4 +250

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

Beyond Chandler, the sample sizes are small. And both Chandler (76 percent) and Martin (57 percent) have benefited – meaning their offensive numbers have benefited – from playing most of their minutes with Anthony.

Still, Chandler and Martin have brought something to the table. Chandler is the perfect example of how you don’t need post moves to be a good offensive center. He rolls hard to the basket, finishing strong and drawing help defenders from the perimeter, which creates space for the Knicks’ shooters. And while Chandler would rank second in the league in field goal percentage if he had enough shots, Martin has actually finished better than Chandler in his short time with the Knicks, shooting 48-for-61 (79 percent) in the restricted area.

And obviously, both guys give New York, a below-average defensive team, some sort of presence inside on that end of the floor.

So the injuries to both Chandler and Martin have to be a serious concern with the playoffs just nine days away. Woodson called Martin’s ankle sprain “severe” on Tuesday. Chandler, meanwhile, returned for just four games before his bulging disc flared up again. Woodson said that his center would be playing if it was playoff time, but back/neck issues don’t go away easily and Chandler at less than 100 percent certainly compromises the Knicks’ chances of winning games and series in the postseason.

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Nuggets Suffer Blow From Gallinari Loss

April 5, 2013  ·  4:42PM

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HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – Word came down Friday afternoon that the Nuggets’ Danilo Gallinari indeed has a torn ACL in his left knee, an ugly injury suffered in Thursday’s win over the Dallas Mavericks.

It could be a huge blow to the Nuggets and, consequently, to the competitiveness of the Western Conference beyond the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs.

The Nuggets have the league’s best home record (34-3) and the league’s second best record (35-9) since Jan. 1. Since the All-Star break, they have the No. 3 offense and the No. 7 defense.

Gallinari has obviously been a big part of that success. With 51 more 3-pointers than any of his teammates, he’s the one guy who can really space the floor. And Denver has been a better team, both offensively and defensively, with him in the game.

Nuggets efficiency with Gallinari on and off the floor

On/off floor MIN OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg +/-
On floor 2,309 108.8 101.6 +7.2 +334
Off floor 1,379 105.3 103.0 +2.3 +28

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

The Nuggets with Gallinari on the floor have the point differential of a 62-win team. The Nuggets with Gallinari off the floor have the point differential of a 44-win team.

But, as a starter, Gallinari has played most of his minutes with his best teammates, which can make his make his on-off-court discrepancy look more drastic than his actual value.

Most minutes with Gallinari

Player MIN % of DG’s minutes
Andre Iguodala 1,755 76%
Ty Lawson 1,707 74%
Kenneth Faried 1,569 68%
Kosta Koufos 1,280 55%
Andre Miller 984 43%
Corey Brewer 737 32%
JaVale McGee 586 25%
Wilson Chandler 358 16%

The Nuggets are obviously deeper since Chandler returned in mid-January. Even without Gallinari, they still have three wings – Iguodala, Chandler and Brewer – who George Karl can trust. And Evan Fournier has shown some flashes of an ability to contribute over the last week.

Karl’s ability to go small, however, is now a bit limited. The Nuggets have played 870 minutes with three of the four veteran wings on the floor together, most of those (597) with Gallinari as one of the three. Those have been great minutes for the Nuggets, played at a very fast pace.

Nuggets efficiency with three of Brewer, Chandler, Gallinari & Iguodala on floor

Combination MIN Pace OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg +/-
Including Gallinari 597 100.0 112.9 100.4 +12.5 +108
Brewer + Chandler + Iguodala, no Gallinari 273 100.4 107.1 93.9 +13.2 +51
Total 870 100.1 111.1 98.4 +12.8 +159

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes

Without Gallinari, the trio of Brewer, Chandler and Iguodala will have to take on a larger load. The good news is that the Nuggets’ defense, as you might expect, has been excellent with those three on the floor together.

The Nuggets still need a healthy Ty Lawson to pose a serious threat to the top two teams in the West, but improved defense could help absorb the loss of their second leading scorer.

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John Schuhmann is a staff writer for NBA.com. Send him an e-mail or follow him on twitter.

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