HANG TIME HEADQUARTERS — Once you’ve acknowledged the NBA Draft for the inexact science that it has been, is and forever will be, it makes looking back at past Drafts much easier.
You won’t be nearly as upset with the president or general manager of your favorite team when you glance back at a Draft and recognize just how many more misses there are than hits. Many guys pegged as future stars are barely holding on to starting spots just three or four seasons into their careers.
The hit-or-miss rate in the lottery is pretty staggering from year to year, especially when you consider the amount of financial and human resources teams spend on their Draft preparation. For every LeBron James or Derrick Rose as No. 1 overall picks and future MVPs, there is a Greg Oden or Andrea Bargnani to balance the scales — guys who for whatever reason simply are not able to live up to where they were drafted. And it goes on and on like that down each Draft board.
Most players only get two or three seasons to prove they are going to be a player to be reckoned with. Rookie deals are shorter these days, so the only way to curb the uncertainty is for a player to produce immediately. Three seasons of work is a quality sample in most cases.
Take the 2010 Draft class as Exhibit A. As of this morning, only two members of the class have extensions of their rookie deals: Washington’s John Wall and Milwaukee’s Larry Sanders are set. Indiana All-Star Paul George is a sure bet to get something worked out before the Halloween deadline and the Sacramento Kings would be wise to figure out their future with DeMarcus Cousins. But beyond those names, it’s unclear if anyone else in this class will be smiling when trick-or-treat season rolls around.
In the meantime, we’re going to examine the lottery selections from 2010 and unveil our the first in a series of our Hang Time Draft Do-Overs (lottery picks only), based on what we know now. Too bad the teams who made the original selections couldn’t do it this way.
Hang Time’s 2010 Draft Do-Over
Pick, Player, Position, College (where they were originally picked in 2010 Draft)
1. Paul George, SF, Fresno State (No. 10 by Indiana)
One of the brightest young stars in the league, George made his case for the top spot with a mercurial rise in his first three seasons that culminated with an All-Star nod last season and by battling LeBron James inch-for-inch in an epic seven-game Eastern Conference finals last season. It was a remarkable star turn for a player casual fans had barely heard of on Draft night.
2. John Wall, PG, Kentucky (No. 1 by Washington)
Plagued by uncertainty and a somewhat suspect supporting cast early on, Wall came on in the second half of the 2012-13 season. He shook off the after effects of knee surgery and played at an All-Star level in the Wizards’ final 49 games. He was the first member of the class to cash in with a five-year, $80 million extension earlier this month.
3. DeMarcus Cousins, C, Kentucky (No. 5 by Sacramento)
Cousins has had more than his share of issues, on and off the court, but his raw talent remains undeniable. Whether or not he has the desire and work ethic to become the All-Star big man his talent suggests, however, also remains in question. Being dominant in flashes is not a sufficient existence for a player with his talent.
4. Larry Sanders, PF, Virginia Commonwealth (No. 15 by Milwaukee)
Sanders was undervalued on Draft night, but you couldn’t tell by his first two underwhelming seasons with the Bucks. But he came alive last season, turning in a season worthy of the Defensive Player of the Year consideration he received and finally becoming the consistent force his abilities suggested he should be. The Bucks rewarded him with that $44 million extension.
5. Greg Monroe, PF, Georgetown (No. 7 by Detroit)
Monroe isn’t as physically dominant as either Cousins, Sanders or Derrick Favors, but there’s a good chance he could end up being the most polished and productive big man in this class. He quickly developed into a low-post anchor for the Pistons and will now get the chance to work alongside Josh Smith and Andre Drummond as the franchise moves back into the playoff picture.
6. Avery Bradley, SG, Texas (No. 19 by Boston)
Undersized as a shooting guard at the NBA level, Bradley saw his stock dip on Draft night. It was a foolish assessment by many, because Bradley has evolved into one an absolute lock-down defender at his position and one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. It will be interesting to see if he continues to improve under coach Brad Stevens the way he did under coach Doc Rivers.
7. Derrick Favors, PF, Georgia Tech (No. 3 by New Jersey)
Favors had to play behind veterans Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap after being traded to Utah. It was probably the best thing that could have happened to him, too. Now that those veteran bigs have moved on via free agency, Favors will become the low-post anchor for the Jazz. He’ll become the walking double-double he should be now that he’ll have an expanded role.
8. Gordon Hayward, SG, Butler (No. 9 by Utah)
Hayward has improved as much as anyone in the class between Draft night and this summer. He stood out among the young stars assembled in Las Vegas last month for the U.S. Men’s National Team’s mini-camp. A young Jazz team in need of leadership will get a solid boost in that department, and others, from Hayward.
9. Eric Bledsoe, PG, Kentucky (No. 18 by Oklahoma City)
John Calipari was operating with an absolute embarrassment of point guard riches with Wall and Bledsoe on the roster at Kentucky together. Bledsoe had limited opportunities in 38 starts in three seasons with the Los Angeles Clippers. Traded to Phoenix this summer, he should thrive now that he won’t be overshadowed by Chris Paul.
10. Greivis Vasquez, PG, Maryland (No. 28 by Memphis)
A solid back up in Memphis, Vasquez proved himself to be a capable starter in two years in New Orleans and will try to do the same in Sacramento this season. With his size, savvy and fearlessness in the clutch, it’s hard to see how many teams missed on the former ACC star on Draft night.
11. Evan Turner, SF, Ohio State (No. 2 by Philadelphia)
Turner has been a solid pro in his first three seasons, but the No. 2 pick in any Draft needs to be much more than solid. The Big Ten Player of the Year in college, Turner struggled to find his fit early on with the Sixers. But he blossomed in his third season playing alongside All-Star point guard Jrue Holiday, who was traded away this summer.
12. Ed Davis, PF, North Carolina (No. 13 by Toronto)
It was understood that Davis was going to be a project, a guy with fantastic long-term potential that might not be realized until his fourth or fifth season in the league. So he’s right on target heading into his fourth season, his first full season in Memphis. Davis is still coming into his own physically and just needs more time.
13. Quincy Pondexter, SF, Washington (No. 26 by Oklahoma City)
A quality role player from the moment he set foot in the league, Pondexter carved out a nice spot for himself in the Grizzlies’ rotation over the past two seasons. While he’s not necessarily a future star, Pondexter is one of those players who should spend the next decade or so playing a significant role for whatever team(s) he’s on.
14. Lance Stephenson, SG, Cincinnati (No. 40 by Indiana)
Stephenson had a lottery grade coming out of high school but saw his stick drop dramatically after one season at Cincinnati. He’s still wildly inconsistent and was a flat-out liability at times against the Heat during the Eastern Conference finals. But Larry Bird saw something in him on Draft night and continues to believe in his ability to contribute on a championship-caliber Pacers team.