HANG TIME NEW JERSEY — The first round series between the Toronto Raptors and Indiana Pacers has become a referendum on the value of DeMar DeRozan, and maybe even a determination of whether DeRozan will remain in Toronto beyond these playoffs.
The question of whether the Raptors should give DeRozan a big contract this summer or let him leave via free agency is one for another day. But it’s hard not to evaluate it as this series goes on and DeRozan’s career playoff *effective field goal percentage continues to hover below 40 percent.
* Effective field goal percentage = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
DeRozan is not the only Raptors All-Star who has shot poorly through the first four games. Among the 33 players who have taken at least 50 shots in the playoffs through Monday, DeRozan (29.6 percent) ranks 33rd in effective field goal percentage and teammate Kyle Lowry (36.4 percent) ranks 32nd.
But Lowry contributes more than his scoring. He has more than twice as many assists (and secondary assists) than DeRozan in the series and provides better defense. Lowry is a plus-13 through four games, while DeRozan is a series-low minus-20. And after averaging 8.4 free throw attempts in the regular season (third most in the league), DeRozan has gone to the line just 15 times in four games.
The numbers tells us that mid-range shots are worse than 3-point shots, pull-up shots are worse than shots off the catch and contested shots are worse than uncontested shots. Kobe Bryant has long been the king of pull-up, contested, mid-range shots, and DeRozan has long been the prince.
According to SportVU, 34 of DeRozan’s 49 jump shots in the series have been contested and 35 have been pull-ups. Of his 71 total shots, 38 have been from mid-range.
He’s also a brutal 6-for-17 in the restricted area, with Pacers rookie Myles Turner doing a particularly good job of shutting DeRozan down at the rim. And really, if you were to list the reasons why DeRozan has shot 30 percent, “He’s been guarded by Paul George” and “the Pacers are a top-three defensive team” are Nos. 1 and 2.
But DeRozan has been unable to adapt or use the attention on him to make his teammates better. The Raptors are learning (for the third season in a row) that if you rely heavily on an inefficient, one-on-one scorer in the regular season, it could come back to bite you in the playoffs.
“Every time I’m coming off, there’s two to three guys there,” DeRozan said on Sunday. “They’re doing a great job of sitting in, bringing help, consistently having a body on me or Kyle, not really leaving us either on the perimeter. It’s just a thing of us figuring it out and using our teammates, get them going to get guys off of us.”
Toronto managed to win a game (Game 2) in which DeRozan shot 5-for-18 and didn’t play in the fourth quarter, and his nine trips to the line somewhat made up for his 7-for-19 performance in Game 3. But, while other other top-2 seeds are taking care of business, the Raptors are even with a team that won 11 fewer games and ranked 23rd offensively in the regular season.
Is DeRozan just a regular season star? He’s got at least two more games to prove otherwise. Game 5 is Tuesday (6 p.m. ET, TNT).
“You go through your ups and downs,” DeRozan said. “But it’s all about how you figure it out in a process to get out of that. If we do what we’re supposed to do, all of this will be erased.”
“We’re going to ride or die with DeMar and Kyle,” Raptors coach Dwane Casey said. “They haven’t shot the ball great, but again it’s still basketball. So we’re going to go with them. They’re our star players. They’re All-Stars for a reason.”