One Team, One Stat: Drop-off in Dallas


VIDEO: Schuhmann’s Advanced Stats: Dallas Mavericks

NBA.com’s John Schuhmann gets you ready for the 2015-16 season with a key stat for each team in the league and shows you why it matters. Today, we look at the Dallas Mavericks, who couldn’t sustain the league’s best offense after making a big trade.

The stat

20151021_dal_netrtg_drop

The context

20151021_dal_basicsThe Mavs’ regression actually began with the Rajon Rondo trade in December, a risky deal that clearly didn’t work out. They had the league’s best offense, by a pretty wide margin, at that point. In fact, at 10.1 points per 100 possessions better than the league average, the Mavs had the best offense of the last 38 years.

And it was on offense where they fell off the most once Rondo arrived. They scored almost 10 fewer points per 100 possessions after the trade than they did before it, regressing on that end of the floor in each of the “four factors” of efficiency (shooting, rebounding, turnovers and free throw rate).

20151021_dal_before-after

Rondo’s inability to shoot hurt the Mavs’ spacing. Rondo (33.9 percent) shot a better percentage than Jameer Nelson (33.1 percent) with the Mavs. But because Nelson (sent to Boston in that December trade) took a lot more 3-pointers, he was a more effective shooter and floor-spacer.

20151021_dal_nelson_rondo

Rondo had had the highest turnover rate on the team and made just 19 free throws in 46 games with the Mavs. On top of the bad numbers, he had issues with coach Rick Carlisle.

The Mavs’ defense did improve after the trade. In fact, Dallas ranked fifth in defensive efficiency for about a 10-week period between Dec. 20 and Feb. 24. But they couldn’t sustain that level against some tougher opponents down the stretch.

The Mavs will be a different team, especially offensively, this year. Monta Ellis‘ attacks and Tyson Chandler‘s rolls to the rim will be missed.

But Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews will provide much better spacing around Dirk Nowitzki. The pair attempted 312 more 3-pointers than Ellis and Rondo did last season, even though they played 20 fewer games. The Mavs can also run their offense through Matthews in the post.

Of course, neither Matthews (recovering from a torn Achilles) nor Williams (calf injury) has played in the preseason. Health is the biggest question for the Mavs.

If his team is whole, Carlisle will have some new tools to work with, a fresh start, and a chance to put last year’s regression in the rear-view mirror.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

2 Comments

  1. terry says:

    The Mavs is horrible. Coach horrible. City horrible. Owner horrible. Decisions they made, horrible. Just horrible.

  2. JV says:

    Wow, no mention of the Deandre Jordan debacle that pretty much screwed their team over since they decided to keep that cap space for him and let Tyson Chandler and Monta Ellis go.