One Team, One Stat: Nets Not That Good


VIDEO: Schuhmann’s Advanced Stats: Brooklyn Nets

NBA.com’s John Schuhmann gets you ready for the 2015-16 season with a key stat for each team in the league and shows you why it matters. Today, we look at the Brooklyn Nets, who weren’t nearly as good as their record said they were.

The stat

20151020_bkn_expw_diff

The context

20151020_bkn_basics“Expected” wins are based on point differential. If a team has scored the same number of points as its opponents, it has an expected record of .500. An expected winning record comes from a positive point differential and an “expected” losing record comes from a negative point differential.

The Nets were not only the only playoff team that was outscored by its opponents last season, they were outscored by an amazing 236 points over 82 games. And at 38-44, they won the eighth place tiebreaker with the Indiana Pacers, who were a plus-23 for the season, with 42 expected wins, 11 more than the Nets.

How does a team win a lot more games than its point differential says it should? Well, the Nets went 15-9 in games decided by five points or less and 8-17 in games decided by 15 points or more.

Bottom line: The Nets weren’t nearly good as their record said they were.

And they were even worse, with the numbers of both a bottom-5 offense and a bottom-5 defense, when Deron Williams wasn’t in the game.

20151020_bkn_williams_on-of

Williams had maybe the worst season of his career, but his team was still much better with him on the floor than off it. Extend those numbers over a full season, and the Nets without Williams had the point differential of a 23-59 team (worse than the Orlando Magic). Back-up Jarrett Jack had, by a wide margin, the worst plus-minus among players on playoff teams. He had an assist/turnover ratio of less than 2.0 and shot an amazing 5-for-53 (9.4 percent) on pull-up 3-pointers.

20151020_bkn_playoff_minus

Williams is gone and Jack is now the starting point guard in Brooklyn. Unfortunately for the Nets, they don’t have their Draft pick next summer, so there’s no benefit to falling into the Lottery.

But last year’s numbers, along with Williams’ departure, portend a big drop-off in the win column. And there hasn’t been anything we’ve seen in the preseason to contradict that.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

2 Comments

  1. harriethehawk says:

    The Nets stink.

  2. Tom says:

    Just because you are a playoff team doesn’t mean you are good, especially not in the Eastern Conference…

    Every loves to talk how good Brad Stevens is, but if his team was in the West, he’d be at the bottom of the standings and not even close to the playoffs.

    So he gets into the postseason with a terrible squad and everything thinks he is an amazing coach for leading his young team there… The East is a joke, and the fact that losing teams are making into the playoffs is a disgrace. The conference system is out of date and makes for terrible basketball in the 1st round..