One Team, One Stat: Offensive Regression in Phoenix


VIDEO: Schuhmann’s Advanced Stats: Phoenix Suns

NBA.com’s John Schuhmann gets you ready for the 2015-16 season with a key stat for each team in the league and shows you why it matters. Today, we look at the Phoenix Suns, who took a big step backward after making some trades at the deadline.

The stat

20151017_phx_offrtg_drop

The context

20151017_phx_basicsGoing from seventh in offensive efficiency before the break to 28th after it (finishing 14th for the season) is a hard fall.

It was the trades of both Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas that precipitated the drop-off. Before the break, the Suns scored 106.3 points per 100 possessions with one or both of the lefty point guards on the floor. And they had at least one of them on the floor for 92 percent of their minutes. So when they were both traded, there was a big void in the Phoenix backcourt.

20151017_phx_pre-break

Thomas went to Boston and gave the Celtics’ offense a lift. They had scored 101.0 points per 100 possessions before the break, but scored 109.2 with Thomas on the floor after it. Dragic increased the pace in Miami and helped the Heat offense sustain it’s pre-break level, despite the loss of Chris Bosh.

Meanwhile, the Suns didn’t get as many opportunities in transition, turned the ball over more, and shot much worse, especially from 3-point range.

20151017_phx_before-after

Phoenix got Brandon Knight from Milwaukee at the deadline, but he played just 11 games after that, dealing with a couple of different leg injuries. And the offense wasn’t very good (99.4 points scored per 100 possessions) in the limited minutes (just 235) when Knight and Eric Bledsoe shared the floor.

The Suns added some shooting this summer, but Devin Booker is a rookie and Mirza Teletovic shot just 32 percent from 3-point range before missing the last three months of last season.

Tyson Chandler‘s rolls to the rim will open things up on the perimeter and Alex Len should see more improvement in his third season.

But the Suns are basically starting from scratch. And they have to hope that last season’s regression was more about them going through changes than it was about what they lost.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

3 Comments

  1. javattt says:

    They may be hungry, but that won’t add any talent

  2. Reggohllabami says:

    I see Phoenix not being much better than the past couple of seasons when they were competing for a playoff spot. I think they’ll be one of the bottom teams. I’m aware that they have Tyson Chandler but not him alone is going to push them in playoffs.

    • Panther says:

      Brandon Knight healthy and getting to know the team. Tyson Chandler, great leader and very vocal, something the young suns haven’t had yet.. Bledsoe only had a week break, worked out all summer. Wants to take his game to the next level. Most of the suns roster came early in the summer to get started. Markieff on board and worked on his 3 point shooting and hopefully defense. Alex len coming off the bench, also been working out and working on this game all summer. Pretty much the whole suns roster is hungry and motivated. Last year with losing most of there games to buzzer beaters and under double digits. With the new roaster they will close out more games.Even though Dragic was a loss, the suns have its best roaster since the past few years. The suns will make it to the playoffs.