HANG TIME NEW JERSEY – The Brooklyn Nets are off to a bad start, but bad starts aren’t necessarily the problem.
The Nets have had the lead at the half of five of their 11 games, been tied in one, and been within four points of four of the other five. Yes, given their talent, they should have had leads against teams like the Cavs, Magic, Kings and Bobcats. But the average halftime score of their games is Nets 50, Opponent 49. That’s workable.
The biggest issue is that the Nets have been the worst second-half team in the league thus far, getting outscored by almost 11 points per 100 possessions over the third and fourth quarters. And the problems have come on both ends of the floor.
Nets efficiency by quarter and half
Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
Offensively, the Nets have had a slightly higher turnover rate in the second half, but it’s been their shooting that has suffered the biggest drop-off.
They actually have taken a greater percentage of their shots from the restricted area and from 3-point range in the second half. Better shots should equal better shooting. And they’ve shot well at the basket and from the corners. But they’ve been terrible on other jump shots, shooting 30.1 percent from mid-range and 25.6 percent on above-the-break threes in the second half.
These second-half struggles point straight to the older guys in the rotation: Kevin Garnett (37), Joe Johnson (32), Paul Pierce (36) and Jason Terry (36). That group has shot 36-for-79 (46 percent) from mid-range in the first half and 13-for-52 (25 percent) in the second half.
Johnson, Pierce and Terry have shot 11-for-30 (37 percent) on above-the-break threes in the first half and 11-for-47 (23 percent) in the second half. Johnson has gone from 6-for-11 to 3-for-16, though he has shot well — 4-for-7 — from the corners in the second half.
Brooklyn’s defense has second-half woes, too
The Nets have seen an even bigger drop-off defensively in the second half, when only the Pistons and Pelicans have been worse on that end of the floor. What’s interesting is that their opponents’ effective field goal percentage has been lower in the second half than in the first. But they’ve forced less turnovers and they’ve been an atrocious rebounding team after halftime.
In the first half, the Nets have been the fourth best defensive rebounding team, grabbing 77 percent of available defensive boards. In the second half, they’ve been the worst defensive rebound team, grabbing just 68 percent.
Again, Garnett’s numbers see a major drop-off, but it’s because he’s been so good in the first half. In fact, he’s the best first-half defensive rebounder in the league, grabbing 38 percent of available defensive boards before halftime. In the second half, he’s merely the fourth best defensive rebounder in the league, grabbing 29 percent of available defensive boards.
Is it age? Well, rookie Mason Plumlee has seen an even bigger drop-off. Plumlee has been a pleasant surprise overall and hasn’t played that many minutes, but he has grabbed just 7 percent of available defensive rebounds in the second half, compared to 24 percent in the first half.
Still, Garnett seems to be the face of the Nets’ second-half regression. Between his poor shooting, decreased rebounding, increased turnovers and increased fouls, the difference between his first-half production and second-half production is staggering.
PIE is a statistic that measures overall production as a percentage of all the stats accumulated while that player is in the game. Among 210 players who have logged at least 100 minutes in the first half of games, Garnett ranks 15th with a PIE of 16.4 percent. Among 208 players who have logged at least 100 minutes in the second half, Garnett ranks dead last (0.8 percent).
Bonus stat: Kevin Love leads the league with a first-half PIE of 20.6 percent. Paul George leads the league with a second-half PIE of 24.8 percent.
No other player has suffered nearly the drop-off that Garnett has after halftime.
Biggest PIE drop-off
|Player||1st half||2nd half||Diff.|
Bonus stat: Chicago’s Mike Dunleavy has seen the biggest increase (+14.1 percent) in PIE, going from 5.1 percent in the first half to 19.2 percent in the second half.
More important than Garnett’s individual production is how efficiently the Nets are scoring and how well they’re defending. And they do neither well in the second half with him on the floor. The defensive numbers are most alarming, because that’s the end of the floor where he was supposed to help most.
Nets efficiency with Garnett on the floor
Does KG stiffen up at halftime? And should the Nets play him fewer minutes after the break? Last season, his PIE was 15.8 percent, both before and after halftime. The season before that, it was higher in the second half (17.6 percent) than it was in the first half (16.4 percent). So maybe this is just a fluky first 11 games.
Still, it would help if Andrei Kirilenko (back spasms), Brook Lopez (ankle) and Deron Williams (ankle) were healthy. Kirilenko could certainly take some of the minutes if KG doesn’t have it after halftime, while Lopez and Williams could carry the offense late in games. Lopez is also a defensive difference-maker.
The Nets have other issues, but first and foremost, they must figure out how to figure out their second-half problems.