One Team, One Stat: Raptors Come Up Empty In The Clutch

From Media Day until opening night, NBA.com’s John Schuhmann will provide a key stat for each team in the league and show you, with film and analysis, why it matters. Up next are the Toronto Raptors, under new management.

The basics
TOR Rank
W-L 34-48 t-19
Pace 92.9 24
OffRtg 102.9 14
DefRtg 104.7 22
NetRtg -1.7 19

The stat

12.8 percent - Combined 3-point percentage by DeMar DeRozan (1-for-12), Rudy Gay (2-for-12) and Kyle Lowry (3-for-23) in the clutch last season.

Clutch = Last 5 minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime with a score differential of five points or less.

The context

Among 85 players who attempted at least 10 clutch-time 3-pointers, Gay, Lowry and DeRozan ranked 80th, 84th and 85th in clutch 3-point percentage respectively. And Gay was tied with Chris Paul and Luke Ridnour, so, technically, all three Raptors were in the bottom four.

Ten of Gay’s 12 attempts were with the Grizzlies, but that still leaves a lot of misses between Lowry and DeRozan. As a team, Toronto ranked last in clutch-time 3-point percentage at 20.4 percent (19-for-93) and 29th in clutch-time efficiency, scoring 91.2 points per 100 possessions in 211 clutch-time minutes.

The following video has the lowlights from a Grizzlies-Nuggets game (won by Denver) in which Gay was 0-for-3 on clutch 3s and a Raptors-Sixers game (won by Philly in OT) in which DeRozan and Lowry were a combined 0-for-6 on clutch 3s…

 


 

Clutch-time stats are small sample sizes with some randomness to them. Gay shot 36 percent from the field and 2-for-12 from 3-point range in clutch time last season, but 51 percent from the field and 5-for-8 from deep in 2011-12. Lowry was 6-for-13 on clutch 3-pointers in ’11-12.

Still, all three guys are under 30 percent on clutch 3s over the course of their careers (DeRozan is 1-for-25), with the league average at 31.5 percent since Gay and Lowry entered the league in 2006. Clutch time or not, perimeter shooting is one of the biggest questions surrounding the Raptors this season.

Lowry has actually improved his 3-point shooting quite a bit over the course of his career. After shooting 26 percent from beyond the arc in his first four seasons, he has shot 37 percent over his last three. That improvement has been worth more than a point per game.

But he needs to teach DeRozan, who has shot 24 percent from 3-point range in his first four seasons, how he did it. Gay, meanwhile, has shot just 32 percent on 3-pointers over the last two seasons.

Long-range shooting is a critical part of a successful NBA offense. Only one of the top 10 offenses in the league last season — Denver — didn’t rank in the top 10 in either 3-point attempts or 3-point percentage. And the Nuggets were a unique team that ran the floor, attacked the basket, got to the line, and grabbed a ton of offensive rebounds.

The Raptors ranked 14th offensively last season, but 21st after the Gay trade. And it will be difficult for them to have a decent offense this year if two of their three perimeter starters can’t shoot the league average from beyond the arc. It will also be difficult for them to win close games if those clutch numbers remain so ugly.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

4 Comments

  1. ray says:

    This BS. NBA need balance and need to start blocking player movement and start to franchise tag players, so one team can’t have 3 franchise players on a single team. I would love owner to introduce something to balance the talent in the nba. and start to give players levels so there not just one team with top tier talent.

  2. adrian says:

    rudy is gonna make it rain

  3. Moomz says:

    I think this is why Masai brought over guys like Novak, Daye, Augustin for 3 point help. Not saying they’ll take the last shot, but having that option is always better.

    • JustABasketballFan says:

      Excellent point, not only that but when it comes to clutch timne, i would much prefer to be getting higher percentage looks at the basket than 3 pointers.