For Knicks-Pacers, Game 6 Comes Down To Rebounds, Turnovers

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Knicks-Pacers has been kind of ugly. Eastern Conference playoff basketball at its finest.

The average score of the first five games has been 88-86. They’ve been slow and inefficient. Both teams have shot 41 percent. The Knicks can’t finish at the rim (shooting 48 percent from the restricted area) and the Pacers can’t hit a jump shot (shooting 34 percent from outside the restricted area).

Knicks defensive rebounding
Timeframe DREB% Rank
Reg. season 74.7% 4
First round 86.0% 1
Conf. semis 67.5% 8

DREB% = Percent of available def. reb.

That makes for a lot of missed shots. And if the Knicks had just rebounded a few more of those missed shots, they might be up 3-2, instead of facing elimination for the second straight time in Game 6 on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN). What was the fourth-best defensive rebounding team in the regular season and the best defensive rebounding team in the first round has been the worst defensive rebounding team in the conference semifinals.

The Pacers were the fourth-best offensive rebounding team in the regular season and have won the battle of the boards on that end of the floor in this series. They’re not the Boston Celtics, who have two jump-shooting bigs, eschew offensive rebounds for the sake of better transition defense, and totaled just 31 offensive boards in six first-round games.

Pacers offensive rebounding
Game OREB OREB% 2CP
Game 1 11 31.4% 20
Game 2 7 22.6% 8
Game 3 18 37.5% 20
Game 4 16 39.0% 19
Game 5 12 28.6% 24
Total 64 32.5% 91

OREB% = Percent of available off. reb.

The Pacers’ two big men play in the paint, they know the Knicks aren’t a fast-break team, and they’ve already grabbed more than twice as many offensive boards (64) as the Celtics did against New York. Roy Hibbert has 10 more offensive rebounds (26) than Tyson Chandler has defensive rebounds (16).

Knicks coach Mike Woodson has repeatedly pointed to the Pacers’ offensive rebounds as the difference between wins and losses. Indeed, the Knicks have won the two games in which they kept the Pacers’ offensive rebounding percentage under 30 percent, though Indy still managed to rack up a ton of second-chance points in Game 5.

Note 1: You can register second-chance points without an offensive rebound. On four occasions in Game 5, the Knicks blocked an Indiana shot out of bounds or committed a loose-ball foul on a defensive rebound, with the Pacers scoring subsequently. That helps account for the 24/12 conversion rate.

Despite all the offensive rebounds, the Pacers have still attempted far fewer shots (367) than the Knicks have (406) in this series. Part of the reason is that Indiana has gone to the free-throw line a lot more (130-89), but turnovers are also a big story.

The Pacers ranked 29th in turnover percentage in the regular season, committing 16.2 turnovers per 100 possessions. That number is at 19.8 in this series. If it was any lower, Indiana would be preparing for the Heat right now.

Pacers turnovers
Game TO Live-ball NYK Pts Off
Game 1 16 4 13
Game 2 21 11 32
Game 3 17 7 20
Game 4 16 7 12
Game 5 19 12 12
Total 89 41 89

This is what the Knicks’ defense is meant to do. They pressure the ball, trap pick-and-rolls, and double-team the post, trying to force their opponent into miscues and willing to concede weak-side 3-point attempts if the opponent can move the ball quickly enough. Against this opponent, it’s a sound strategy (though, with defenders out of position, it also contributes to the defensive rebounding issue).

The Pacers have committed a lot of turnovers in every game of the series, but there’s a difference between dead-ball turnovers (offensive fouls, traveling, throwing the ball out of bounds — which the Pacers are very good at) and live-ball turnovers (strips, pass deflections, interceptions, etc). And not coincidentally, the Knicks have won the two games in which the Pacers have committed more than 10 live-ball turnovers.

Note 2: Live-ball turnovers are always recorded as a steal for the opponent. Dead-ball turnovers are not. This makes it easy to tell how many of each there were.

Paul George, as great as he’s been defensively, has as many turnovers (25) as his next two teammates combined (David West has 13 and George Hill has 12). And if Hill is still out with a concussion, George will need to handle the ball more, which is obviously not a good thing for the Pacers’ offense.

Neither team is going to shoot well in this series. That fact has clearly been established. The Pacers just aren’t a good shooting team in the first place, and the Knicks are going against the No. 1 defense in the league.

For New York, staying alive is about cleaning the glass. For Indiana, finishing the series off is about taking care of the ball.

13 Comments

  1. Go Pacers!!!
    &
    Go Fishing Tricks-ooops-i mean knicks!!!

  2. tanibanana says:

    Pacers had a better showing against the Heat during the regular season..
    So it should be Pacers facing Heat on ECF game 1.. Go Pacers!

  3. Kimmy says:

    Hope it goes to game 7 just to watch more basketball. Whats a girl to watch this summer? Boring.

  4. Great article Mr. Schuhmann. IMHO defensive rebounding is THE most important thing for the Knicks to take control and win this series, even more so than offensive bounds. Throughout this series I’ve watched the Knicks play possession after defensive possession locking the Pacers down for 20-seconds only to have a quick ORB and/or put-back completely deflate them. There is nothing so demoralizing as sacrificing your body and successfully stopping the opponent only to have that invalidated by an odd bounce and a garbage bucket. It’s a difficult trade-off: do the Knicks all crash the defensive boards and sacrifice their transition game? I would say yes, but transition is the only time the Knicks have a clear advantage, it seems. Would love to see an article on comparisons between Knicks & Pacers transition offense and defense.

  5. albewolf says:

    Thank you for a wonderfully insightful article!
    I have been playing and watching basketball for many years-
    -and I learned several really cool things-dead-ball turnovers; second chance points w/o offensive rebounding…
    oh, yeah, this is the place to be!

  6. MNH says:

    what matter most is who can beat the Heat.

    • Alex says:

      Who will beat the Heat? Themselves. They bicker more than an old couple at each other. It has had a mostly positive effect thus far largely due to the genius of Spoelstra being able to redirect and play the bench. When he finally gets to a point of telling them to grow up, they will decline. I’ve seen it in pieces in a few games in the past few weeks.

  7. Richard says:

    The pacers are going to have to win the game with defense and Rebounding. The knicks are going to have to win the game with their shooting. Whoever wins tonights game wins the series. Both teams are going to be playing a desperation game.

  8. newyorksteelo says:

    I wouldn’t mind if the Knicks lose on game 7 (they’ve proven themselves an elite top 4 team this season), but please win game 6 tonight. This will give me one more game to get exited about on Monday :)

  9. theholyspectator says:

    this would be the perfect time for knicks to start gettin hot…season on the line, can knicks do it?

    • NYKnola says:

      indeed, perfect time…if the pacers are at their best and the knicks are at their best…I’d bet on NYK, the scorers gotta show up